Tag Archives: Manny Gonzales

Rep. Mark Green to Retire; Another GOP Primary Challenger in AZ-1; Rep. Menendez Leading in NJ-8; New Mexico Senate Candidate Fails to Qualify

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 16, 2024

House

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), US House Homeland Security Committee Chairman, announces his retirement. / Twitter

TN-7: Rep. Mark Green (R) to Retire — The second full House Homeland Security Committee chairman in less than a week announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) joins Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) as Homeland Security Committee chairs most recently announcing their respective retirement. Reps. Kay Granger (R-TX) and Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who consecutively chair the Appropriations and Financial Services Committees, are also ending their long congressional careers.

Rep. Green said he has accomplished his promised goals in the House with the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and the passage of the border bill earlier in this Congress. As chairman of Homeland Security, he was a key figure in both actions.

AZ-1: Another GOP Primary Challenger for Rep. Schweikert — Arizona US Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close 2022 re-election contest has attracted a number of Democrats and Republicans into the 2024 campaign. Yesterday, former FBI agent Kim George (R) announced her candidacy. Also battling the congressman for renomination are businessmen Robert Backie and P.T. Burton. The crowded field will likely help the congressman win the Aug. 6 plurality primary.

While businessman Jevin Hodge held Schweikert to a scant one-point general election victory he is not returning for a rematch, but no less than nine Democrats are running. Within this large group are former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherney, ex-state Rep. Amish Shah, and former news anchorwoman Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of former Attorney General Grant Woods (D).

The politically marginal 1st District is fully contained within Maricopa County and carries an R+7 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The seat is ranked as the 18th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. President Joe Biden carried this district by a bare 50.1 – 48.6 percent margin in the 2020 election.

NJ-8: Internal Poll Finds Rep. Menendez Leading — Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla’s Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), son of New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D), may have lost some steam. Upon announcement, and at the height of Sen. Menendez’s legal trouble, Bhalla posted big fundraising numbers and appeared to mount some momentum toward unseating the younger Menendez in the June 4 primary.

Rep. Menendez’s campaign released an internal poll to the New Jersey Globe newspaper, without identifying the pollster (Jan. 25-Feb. 1; 400 registered NJ-8 Democratic voters; live interview) but publicizing the favorable ballot test. According to this data, Rep. Menendez maintains a 46-24 percent advantage over Mayor Bhalla.

This race still merits attention, particularly as Sen. Menendez continues to languish in statewide Democratic primary polling and is virtually a sure bet to lose the June election, assuming that he files a statement of candidacy at the end of next month. The Menendez campaign was quick to release one data point: 77 percent of the respondents agree that Rep. Menendez should be ‘judged on his own record, and not on that of his father.’

Senate

New Mexico: Ex-Sheriff Fails to Qualify for Senate Ballot — As we have seen in several places already in this election year, another potential candidate has been disqualified for failing to manage the petition signature requirement for ballot placement. Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales (R) has failed to qualify for the June 4 Republican US Senate ballot according to the New Mexico Secretary of State, thus likely leaving former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici as the party’s lone contender.

Assuming the decision holds, the New Mexico Senate general election will feature Domenici, the daughter of former six-term US Sen. Pete Domenici (R), and Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) who is seeking a third term. New Mexico is a Democratic state, so Sen. Heinrich is a clear favorite as the campaign officially starts, but Republicans believe that Domenici can become competitive.

Sen. Cruz in Potentially Competitive Re-Election Bid; Senate Challenge in New Mexico; Rep. Susie Lee Draws Opponent in Nevada; Redistricting Developments in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 29, 2024

Senate

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Tight New Poll — Emerson College just released the results of their latest Texas statewide survey (Jan. 13-15; 1,315 registered Texas voters; interactive voice response system & online) that finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) heading into a potentially competitive general election. The ballot test found the senator leading US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) by a slight 42-40 percent margin, and holding only a one-point, 41-40 percent split over state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio). Simultaneously, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden 49-41 percent.

The poll is not particularly surprising in that Sen. Cruz’s personal favorability numbers have never been particularly good. However, there are a number of things that favor Sen. Cruz: the presidential election turnout model, Trump beating Biden in the state, the Biden energy policies being detrimental to Texas, and the southern border controversy — all play politically to Sen. Cruz’s favor. Therefore, despite the likelihood that we will see many close Texas Senate polls between now and the November election, the actual votes will favor Sen. Cruz winning re-election by a relatively comfortable margin.

New Mexico: Republicans Making Move to Challenge Sen. Heinrich — In order to expand what is a favorable Republican US Senate map, a prominent member of the GOP announced her candidacy. Nella Domenici, a former hedge fund CEO and daughter of the late six-term Sen. Pete Domenici (R), is the latest Republican to declare for the seat. Last week, former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales switched parties to enter the GOP Senate primary. The eventual winner of the June 4 Republican primary will challenge two-term incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D).

The senator is favored for re-election, but Republicans improving among Hispanics could make this a competitive contest. New Mexico’s Hispanics register 50.2 percent of the state population universe according to the latest US Census report. The last time Republicans won a New Mexico statewide race was in 2014 when then-Gov. Susanna Martinez was re-elected. An August Public Policy Polling survey showed President Biden topping former President Trump 49-41 percent, suggesting the state could become competitive in the national election.

House

NV-3: GOP Ex-State Treasurer Announces for House — Earlier this month, Republicans lost their top congressional recruit in state Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas), who instead of running for the House will seek re-election to what could become a tight Nevada Assembly. Kasama was clearly the top contender for the GOP nomination in a seat that is the most winnable for a Republican (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating: D+2) of the three Las Vegas competitive districts.

Now, former State Treasurer Dan Schwartz (R) is coming to the forefront to announce his congressional candidacy. While winning a statewide position in 2014, Schwartz has not fared well since, losing landslide races in his attempts to be elected governor, lieutenant governor, and a previous run for the 3rd Congressional District. It is likely the Republicans will have to recruit a stronger candidate against Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) if they are to move this race into the top tier.

Wisconsin: Congressional District Lines Challenged — A citizens group that famed Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias represents filed suit before the Wisconsin state Supreme Court arguing that the panel’s rejection of the state Senate and Assembly maps compels them to reconsider striking down the state’s congressional map.

According to the Daily Kos Elections site’s legal analysts, the legislature’s maps were returned for a re-draw because the court rejected the “least change” (from the previous map) practice that the legislature relied upon to draw the 2021 maps. The Elias group’s lawsuit maintains that the congressional map was also drawn under the “least change” practice, and therefore should be redrawn.

So far, however, the court has not taken action against the congressional map and time is running out. The secretary of state has informed the court that unless new maps are enacted into law by March 15, they will not be able to convert the electoral system in time for the 2024 election.