The Ohio Outlook

To see an interactive view of this 2026 Ohio Congressional Districts map, click on the image above or go to Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Ohio Elections

The Indiana and Ohio primaries were held on Tuesday, and while the Indiana general election appears quiet, we will see plenty of action in the Buckeye State of Ohio.

The Senate and Governor’s races will be hotly contested and expensive. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) returns in a comeback attempt after losing his seat in 2024 to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Now against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), we will see a different race.

It is important to remember that former Sen. Brown received 230,000-plus more votes in his 2024 losing effort than he did when he last won in 2018. Yet, he still lost by just under four percentage points, thus showing how far Ohio has moved to the political right.

We can expect this year’s race to be expensive, and it will continue to feature close polling. In the campaign’s final two weeks, if the typical Ohio pattern remains true in 2026, Husted will pull away and win with a comfortable single-digit margin.

The open Governor’s race, featuring Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and Democratic ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton will also be very expensive and potentially end in a closer finish than the Senate campaign. Dr. Acton was in charge of the state’s COVID response, so expect her decision to advocate and implement a full shutdown during the pandemic to become a campaign issue.

In the US House campaigns in Ohio, six contests are of note. The most vulnerable seats under the new Ohio congressional map, to which the bipartisan elected officials redistricting commission unanimously agreed, are those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati).

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who won Tuesday’s 9th District Republican primary, was also the nominee in 2024; in that ’24 contest, Merrin came within seven-tenths of a percentage point of unseating Rep. Kaptur, now fourth in US House seniority having been first elected in 1982.

The redistricting map made Democratic Rep. Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored 9th CD even more Republican. Under the new plan, President Trump would have carried the seat by a 55-44 percent margin, a net four points more Republican than the previous district configuration. This race will be a top national GOP conversion opportunity.

The Democratic House Majority PAC has already committed more than $3 million in advertising buys in the Toledo market to help Rep. Kaptur, so we will see another red-hot campaign here unfold over the next few months.

In Cincinnati, Rep. Landsman’s 1st District is also more Republican when compared to the previous Ohio congressional map. Before the changes, Kamala Harris recorded a 53-46 percent victory margin over President Trump. Rep. Landsman scored a re-election win percentage of 55 in 2024 after unseating veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R) two years earlier with a 53 percent victory total.

Under the new redistricting map, however, the 1st District dramatically changes. Instead of President Trump losing by seven points, he would have carried the new CD-1 with a three-point margin. Therefore, we see a net 10-point swing in Republicans’ favor, which certainly makes the 1st District 2026 campaign a major national target.

Former CIA case officer Eric Conroy became the consensus Republican candidate, and he easily won Tuesday’s Republican primary with 70 percent of the vote against two opponents.

But the Democratic incumbent is no pushover. Rep. Landsman already possesses $2.9 million in his campaign account, and the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.9 million in Cincinnati media time to aid his campaign.

Democrats are also targeting other races that appear as long shots. The House Majority PAC has reserved media airtime (including digital advertising) in the Cleveland market ($1.175 million) largely to target Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) in the new 7th CD. Winning the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night is Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter.

Some of the Cleveland market buy could also be used to support Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Her 13th District was thought to be a major target in 2026, but the new map actually made the seat more Democratic. Therefore, the top Republican candidate, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who held the Congresswoman to a 51-49 percent victory in 2024, dropped out of the race. As a result, Democrat Sykes is in strong position for re-election without much help needed from outside organizations.

The House Majority PAC is also investing heavily in the Dayton and Columbus markets.

In the 10th District, the Democrats are targeting veteran Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton). A $2.8 million media reservation in the Dayton market suggests their efforts are serious. The new Democratic nominee is nurse and Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker, who defeated five Democratic opponents with one-third of the primary vote.

It remains to be seen if Knickerbocker can mount a serious challenge, but the HMP’s big monetary commitment suggests that they will make OH-10 a top national priority.

Finally, in what is clearly a long-shot effort, the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.8 million in Columbus media time to challenge Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus). His 15th District seat is a mid-50s Republican domain, which makes unseating a GOP incumbent very difficult.

The new Democratic nominee, defeating the 2024 challenger on Tuesday, is college professor Don Leonard. Party leaders believe he would be a stronger candidate than former state Rep. Adam Miller who lost to Carey 56-44 percent in the last election.

Though the media time is reserved, the buyer can make changes and cancellations (with a financial penalty) before the actual payment comes due. Therefore, if these challenges do not materialize to a satisfactory degree, the House Majority PAC leaders can transfer the money to fund other races.

Expect the Ohio electorate to play a major role in determining which party will control the House in the next Congress.

Indiana & Ohio Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Voting started up again yesterday in two Midwestern states, ending a primary lull since March. The month of May will host nine more primaries and a series of 16 Texas federal runoff elections (One US Senate; 15 US House).

Voters in Indiana and Ohio chose their nominees yesterday, and the Hoosier state Senate races stole the show. There are just two contested statewide elections in Indiana this year (Secretary of State; Comptroller) and no US Senate race.

Ohio will feature an open Governor’s campaign along with a hotly contested US Senate race between appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former US Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in addition to at least two major US House contests.

Indiana

The Indiana Senate refused to pass a redistricting map that would have enhanced the Republican standing in the US House, and President Trump threatened to target and defeat the seven GOP incumbents who foiled the redraw. The President followed through on his threat and proved successful as five of the seven targeted Senators fell to crushing defeats last night.

Possibly as a side effect of the Indiana redistricting issue, it is arguable that all Hoosier State Republican congressional incumbents who drew opposition under-performed even when winning renomination.

Freshman Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R-Indianapolis), despite having literally a 100:1 advantage in campaign resources ($2.3 million to $22,000) over his opponent was renominated with just 53 percent of the vote.

Three-term Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) won with a 60-40 percent margin against a Republican opponent who literally spent no money on her campaign. Similarly, incumbent Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe/Ft. Wayne) recorded a 67 percent victory percentage against an opponent who had less than $100,000 in resources.

An incumbent who faced a legitimate challenger was 4th District Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle). He defeated his opponent, state Rep. Craig Haggard (R-Mooresville), by a 61-30 percent margin. This was not an expensive primary, and Rep. Baird at 80 years of age had been laid up from injuries suffered in an auto accident. Therefore, his 61 percent victory figure is certainly acceptable.

The only Democratic incumbent who faced a challenge was Rep. Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis). Against three opponents, he won renomination with 62 percent of the vote.

Irrespective of all challenged Indiana US House members recording below average victory percentages for incumbents seeking renomination, the entire nine-member delegation should easily win their respective general election campaigns.

Ohio

Several of the Ohio general election campaigns will be of national importance.

Businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy won the Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination last night with a landslide 82 percent of the vote. He now faces former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton who was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Appointed Sen. Jon Husted had no Republican opposition in his special election primary. For the Democrats, as expected, former Sen. Sherrod Brown was renominated with 89 percent of the vote. The two will square off in November for the right to serve the final two years of the current term.

When J.D. Vance resigned his Senate seat to become Vice President, a special election became necessary to fill the balance of the term after Husted, then the state’s Lieutenant Governor, was appointed. In order for the 2026 winner to secure a full six-year term, the individual will be tasked with running again in 2028.

No surprises occurred in the Ohio House races. Two races of note will be featured as national campaigns in the general election, those from Cincinnati and Toledo.

In the 1st District, former CIA case officer Eric Conroy easily won the Republican nomination and now will challenge two-term Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) in a district that the Ohio redraw transformed from a lean Democratic seat to one that tilts Republican.

In the 9th CD, where then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) came within less than a percentage point of upsetting veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur in 2024, we will see a re-match. Merrin defeated a crowded Republican field last night in order to earn a second chance of wresting the House seat away from Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982.

Redistricting made the 9th District even more Republican than it was in 2024, so this challenge race now becomes one of the best GOP conversion opportunities in the nation.

New Florida Map Adopted

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Florida redistricting map.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Redistricting

The proposed 2026 Florida congressional map is now law with passage in both the state House of Representatives and Senate along with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) signature, but legal challenges are on the horizon.

Democrats are expected to challenge the newly enacted map in court, focusing not on racial gerrymandering but on certain partisan provision language contained in the voter‑approved redistricting criteria. Although the initiative language includes a ban on overt partisan gerrymandering, the Callais v. Louisiana decision also addressed technical issues that relate to Florida’s initiative, and this could complicate or even undermine the Democrats’ anticipated lawsuit.

Assuming the state Supreme Court upholds the new map – a majority of the justices are DeSantis appointments – the early statistical analysis points to a 24R – 4D partisan split. Such would provide Republicans four more seats compared with their current Sunshine State standing.

Yesterday, several members announced where they intend to run, and the new map creates significant challenges for multiple incumbents. The statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog have released preliminary partisan estimates based on the two most recent presidential elections.

The four Democrats facing unfavorable new districts are: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston). Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Lois Frankel (D-Ft. Lauderdale), and Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) would receive safe Democratic seats. The vacant 20th District from which former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick recently resigned would also remain strongly Democratic.

Two of the members, Reps. Soto and Castor, announced yesterday that they will run in their newly assigned districts. Rep. Soto previously held a reliably Democratic 9th District, where Kamala Harris defeated President Biden 51.2 to 47.7 percent. President Biden ran even stronger here in 2020, carrying the district 58.2 to 40.8 percent. Under the new plan, however, the 9th District shifts sharply to the right: Donald Trump would have defeated Harris 58.2 to 40.5 percent.

Rep. Castor’s 14th District was even more strongly Democratic than Rep. Soto’s previous CD. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 14th CD 55.3 to 45.6 percent. Four years earlier, the Democratic margin was 59.0 to 39.8 percent. Under the new DeSantis plan, the 14th District — still anchored in Tampa but containing less of the city — would have shifted to the right, with Trump winning 54.5 to 44.0 percent.

Making early comments about where she might run, Rep. Frankel remained uncommitted about seeking re-election in the new 23rd CD that contains part of Ft. Lauderdale and the Democratic stronghold of West Palm Beach.

Rep. Moskowitz indicated that he will likely run in the new 25th District, an Atlantic coastal seat where he already represents roughly half of the constituency. The updated partisan numbers, however, show that President Trump would have carried the new 25th with a 54.0 to 44.8 percent margin.

The Democrat in the most difficult position is Rep. Wasserman Schultz. Unless she chooses to challenge another Democrat in a paired‑incumbent race, she would likely run in the new 22nd District, which begins in the Fort Lauderdale area and stretches west across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Based on Donald Trump’s would‑be performance, the partisan split in this district is calculated at 54.6 to 44.1 percent.

Several Republicans would also find themselves in new political circumstances. Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R‑Clearwater) would still hold a strongly Republican district, but its Trump performance of 56.9 to 41.6 percent is noticeably weaker than that of his previous 12th District. The major change is drawing the 12th into Tampa to absorb some Democratic voters that Rep. Castor previously represented.

In the Tampa area, Rep. Laurel Lee (R‑Tampa) would receive a much more Republican‑leaning district, but her new territory north of Tampa could leave her vulnerable in a GOP primary. Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion has already announced that he will challenge her.

In the Daytona area, Rep. Cory Mills (R‑New Smyrna Beach), who is facing multiple sexual‑harassment accusations, would see his 7th District remain almost entirely unchanged. His biggest obstacle to re‑election is likely to come from the Republican primary.

The new Florida map will play a major role in determining which party ultimately controls the House in the upcoming midterm elections. Attention will soon shift to the state Supreme Court and its forthcoming decision on what is expected to be a highly technical legal challenge.

Redistricting Disarray: Alabama Yes, Georgia No, Louisiana Back to Jungle

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 4, 2026

Redistricting

The Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana racial gerrymandering case has thrown the House election cycle into disarray. As a result of the high court’s decision, redistricting options are again being contemplated in several states.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R), despite previously stating she opposed redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections, issued a proclamation on Friday calling the legislature into special session later today to redraw the state’s congressional and state Senate maps.

Alabama is in exactly the same situation now as Louisiana. Under court orders, both states were required to redraw their 2021 congressional maps to add a majority minority district. Following last week’s Supreme Court Callais ruling, those revised maps are now invalid.

It is probable that the Alabama legislature will revert to a map like the one enacted in 2021. Such a plan would collapse Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Montgomery) current District 2 and shift the seat back to southeast Alabama. That change would likely return the state’s congressional delegation to a 6R–1D alignment, rather than the current 5R–2D split.

The principal beneficiary of such a map would be former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in a 2024 paired‑incumbent primary. He is currently running in the reconfigured 1st District now that incumbent Rep. Barry Moore (R) is seeking a Senate seat. Carl, however, trails state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) in a recently released poll.

A new map would likely restore Mobile County as the population anchor of District 1 and shift District 2 back to southeast Alabama. Such a draw would allow both Carl and Marques to run in separate districts. While each would still face primary competition under a new configuration, they would no longer be forced to run against one another.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, which means the legislature will have to act quickly. The most likely scenario is that the regular primary proceeds as planned for all offices except the US House of Representatives and state Senate. Once new maps are enacted, a separate filing period and new primary dates for those offices would be set for later in the year.

Georgia is another state that could potentially redraw its congressional map, but with candidate filing already closed and the May 19 primary fast approaching, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is taking the opposite position of Gov. Ivey. Kemp said he does not support redistricting for 2026, though indicated he would be open to considering a new map for the 2028 election cycle.

In Louisiana, state Senate President Cameron Henry (R‑Metairie) said Friday that the 2026 election scheduling decision will likely return the state’s US House races to the jungle primary format that has been in place since the late 1970s.

Gov. Jeff Landry (R) has already suspended the May 16 primary for US House campaigns in response to the Supreme Court ruling. The other affected contests, most notably the US Senate race, will continue to proceed under the May 16 partisan primary schedule.

With other offices still operating under the jungle primary system, which runs concurrently with the November general election and employs December runoffs when no candidate wins a majority, it is likely the Governor will simply return the US House races to this previous format and election calendar. Such would be the least expensive way for the state to conduct elections under a revised schedule.

Once the Virginia state Supreme Court renders a decision upholding the April 21 redistricting referendum, and the new Florida plan wins approval from its state Supreme Court after a lawsuit is formally filed, along with Alabama and Louisiana overcoming the legal objections to moving their primaries, the national redistricting landscape will finally come into clear focus.

Assuming all of these courts rule as suggested, we can reasonably predict that the new California and Texas maps would offset one another in terms of partisan gains, as would the changes in Virginia and Florida. Republicans would probably gain one seat each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, with the potential for one or two additional seats in Ohio. Democrats would gain one seat in Utah under that state’s new court‑ordered map.

Therefore, if the national redistricting picture ultimately unfolds as outlined above, the 2026 changes would likely result in Republicans achieving a net gain of four to five seats nationwide.

Louisiana Suspends House Primaries

Louisiana Governor suspends US House elections (view interactive 2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map on Dave’s Redistricting App).

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 1, 2026

House

A day after the US Supreme Court ruled Louisiana’s congressional map an unconstitutional gerrymander, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) issued an executive order affecting the state’s May 16 primary election.

With early voting set to begin tomorrow and the state’s congressional map declared illegal by the nation’s highest court on Wednesday, Gov. Landry moved quickly to suspend the House primaries. He said the nomination election will remain in abeyance to give legislators time to redraw and approve a new congressional map and identified July 15 as the target date for rescheduling the House contests.

All other races, including the US Senate primaries in both parties, will proceed as planned on May 16.

Democrats, and even some Republicans, criticized the decision, arguing that early voting ballots have already been distributed and that postponing only the US House primaries would create confusion and likely depress turnout.

One of the Republican critics, Sen. Bill Cassidy, who faces a difficult renomination fight under the new partisan primary system, warned that running two different nomination schedules will mislead voters. For that reason, he opposes allowing the Senate primary to proceed on May 16.

What is likely a more salient reason for Sen. Cassidy’s push to postpone the primary is a new Emerson College poll released yesterday. The survey (April 24–26; 500 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) shows Sen. Cassidy trailing both former state Treasurer John Fleming and Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), whom President Trump has already endorsed.

The ballot test produced a 28-27-21 percent split, with Fleming narrowly leading Rep. Letlow, and Sen. Cassidy following. Clearly, the race is headed toward a runoff, and it is not even certain that Sen. Cassidy will qualify for the second round.

At the end of 2024, the Louisiana legislature and the Governor overhauled the state’s preliminary election system. The new law created a partisan primary in May of the election year, followed by a June runoff in any race where no candidate secures a majority. Once nominees are chosen, they advance to a November general election, as in all other states.

Previously, Louisiana used a jungle primary system in which all candidates, regardless of party, appeared on the same ballot. Any candidate who received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round was elected outright. If no one reaches a majority, the top two finishers, again, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

In past years, Louisiana held its initial election concurrently with the national general election. If a runoff was required, the top candidates would meet again in an early December second round. For the state legislature and many statewide offices, including the governorship, that system remains in place. The new partisan primary structure applies only to federal offices and certain designated state positions.

The act of drawing a new congressional map will almost certainly guarantee Republicans at least one additional seat in the current 4R–2D Louisiana delegation. Some observers, most notably reporters at the liberal political blog The Down Ballot, have speculated that Republican legislators might even attempt to convert both Democratic seats. Whether such an effort will materialize remains uncertain.

In addition to Louisiana, other states may also undertake redistricting ahead of the 2026 election. Reports indicate that President Trump has urged Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) to eliminate the state’s lone Democratic‑held district; Georgia is also viewed as a potential candidate for a 2026 redraw.

Other states could be in the mix, as well. If such efforts move forward, they will almost certainly unfold on a very compressed timeline.

SCOTUS Decides Louisiana Case;
Florida Rep. Webster to Retire

2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map (view interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 30, 2026

Louisiana

The US Supreme Court, months after initially hearing the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, released its ruling yesterday.

In authoring the Court’s opinion, Associate Justice Samuel Alito outlined the reasons the justices upheld the three‑judge panel’s ruling in Callais v. Louisiana, which found that the congressional map used before the 2024 election constituted a racial gerrymander.

The ruling is viewed as favorable to Republicans and will almost certainly require Louisiana’s congressional map to be redrawn before the 2026 statewide primary on May 16. It is possible that the legislature could simply revert to the 2021 map that was in place for the 2022 election.

Activists in several states are already urging their legislators to redraw congressional maps. Such is the case in Georgia, Mississippi (for their state Supreme Court districts), and potentially South Carolina. The Florida legislature is now likely to pass the map that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) produced, which was drawn in anticipation of a favorable Republican Louisiana ruling.

In the Callais decision, Justice Alito outlined the parameters of the Voting Rights Act. He wrote, “Because the Voting Rights Act did not require Louisiana to create an additional majority-minority district, no compelling interest justified the State’s use of race in creating SB8, and that map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.”

He further explained when race can be used as a factor in drawing legislative district boundaries. From later in the ruling, Justice Alito stated, “The Court’s precedents have identified “only two compelling interests” that can satisfy strict scrutiny: avoiding imminent and serious risks to human safety in prisons,” and “remediating specific, identified instances of past discrimination that violated the Constitution or a statute.”

Further explaining, the Justice wrote, “Properly understood, §2 thus does not intrude on States’ prerogative to draw districts based on nonracial factors, including to achieve partisan advantage. In short, §2 imposes liability only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race. Not only does this interpretation follow from the plain text of §2, but it is consistent with the limited authority that the Fifteenth Amendment confers.”

It remains to be seen which states besides Louisiana will redraw their maps before the 2026 election. Alabama, where officials were also required to add another minority district ahead of the 2024 election, is one possibility. With primary elections already underway in many states, most significant redistricting activity is likely to shift to the 2028 election cycle.

FL-11

Although he would have continued to represent a safely Republican district under Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed congressional map, eight-term US Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) announced just after celebrating his 77th birthday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Rep. Webster had been viewed as a potential retirement candidate throughout this election cycle. Under the DeSantis map, his central Florida 11th District is rated as safely Republican. In the proposed FL‑11, President Trump would have recorded a 57.2 to 41.5 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris.

Dan Webster was first elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 1980 and later became the chamber’s first Republican Speaker since Reconstruction. He was elected to the state Senate in 1998, where he went on to serve as Majority Leader.

The number of open House seats has now grown to 64. Thirty-eight of these seats are currently Republican held with 21 from the Democratic column. Five additional open districts have been created as a result of redistricting maps in California, Texas, and Utah.

Of the 64 seats in the open category, only 28 involve members retiring from elective office. This group includes two lawmakers who were paired in a new redistricting map with another incumbent of his own party, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) and Burgess Owens (R-UT).

Twenty-seven Representatives are running for a different office, three have resigned their seats, two districts are open due to the incumbent’s death, and one has already been defeated in his primary election.

Once the Florida redistricting process is resolved, a crowded Republican field is expected to emerge for the now‑open 11th District. The Sunshine State candidate‑filing deadline for US House races is June 12, and the state’s primary is scheduled for Aug. 18.

Redistricting News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Redistricting

As the election cycle progresses and a new round of candidate filing deadlines are fast approaching, redistricting action is coming quickly.

Yesterday, the Virginia Supreme Court heard arguments on the Democratic Party’s motion to lift the lower court’s stay that had invalidated the new map. The original ruling, issued before the statewide referendum election, stemmed from the judge’s finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing the measure onto the ballot.

After the circuit judge’s ruling, the Democrats appealed to the state Supreme Court. The justices have not yet heard the appeal but allowed the referendum to proceed. On April 21, voters approved the new congressional map by a narrower than expected 51.7 to 48.3 percent margin. With the candidate‑filing deadline approaching on May 26, the Democratic Party moved to ensure that the 2026 elections can proceed under the newly adopted map.

In a rather surprising ruling, the state Supreme Court yesterday denied the motion. As a result, the 2021 congressional map remains in effect until the justices hear the Democratic Party’s appeal of the lower court ruling and issue a final decision.

More details are emerging about the newly proposed Florida congressional map, which is expected to come before the state House of Representatives this week. If approved, the plan would then advance to the state Senate.

The new plan is being characterized as one that would deliver 24 of Florida’s 28 congressional districts to Republicans.

Researchers at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics have conducted a preliminary review of the proposed districts and suggest that several of the new seats may be more competitive than Republicans are indicating.

The Center’s report specifically identifies new Districts 14 (Rep. Kathy Castor-D; Tampa), 22 (likely a new open seat), and 25 (also likely an open seat) as competitive contests that could present opportunities for Democratic holds.

While the weakest of these districts is the new 25th, which would have given President Trump a 54-45 percent victory in 2024, the Center compares the totals to the 2020 election when President Trump faced Joe Biden. In that scenario, the Center’s analysis shows new District 14 narrowing to a two‑point Trump advantage, while Biden would have carried District 22 by 2.9 points and District 25 by a wider 5.1‑point margin.

While competitive races in these districts are certainly possible, particularly in the 14th, which features a long‑serving incumbent (Rep. Castor was first elected in 2006), the two presidential elections are not equally comparable in terms of political significance.

Florida has undergone drastic political change since 2020, largely to the benefit of Republicans. In 2020, Democrats held a 36.5 to 35.8 percent advantage in party registration, amounting to just under 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Today, Republicans hold a 41.3 to 35.8 percent advantage, giving the party a registration lead of roughly 1.5 million voters. Measured as a percentage shift over the past five years, this represents a net Republican gain of nearly 12 points.

In 2020, President Trump carried Florida with just a 51.2 – 47.9 percent victory margin. In 2024, his margin increased to 56.1 to 43.0 percent. When these statewide shifts are considered alongside the substantial changes in voter registration and the per‑district analysis, the 2024 projections are likely a more accurate reflection of the current electorate than the numbers derived from the 2020 results.

Expect additional redistricting developments soon, particularly the US Supreme Court’s decision in Callais v. Louisiana, which many observers anticipate will be a significant ruling on racial gerrymandering.

Texas Redistricting Ruling; Fla. Gov. DeSantis Releases Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Texas Redistricting

In a move that could signal how it may approach the Louisiana racial gerrymandering dispute, the US Supreme Court yesterday took a very unusual step regarding the Texas redistricting appeal.

A majority of the justices voted to issue a reverse summary judgment in the challenge to Texas’s new congressional map. The move effectively overturned the lower court’s ruling without requiring additional briefing or oral argument.

Yesterday’s court action is exceedingly rare, and its use adds weight to predictions that the forthcoming Louisiana decision could become a defining ruling on racial gerrymandering. The Court is scheduled to release additional opinions tomorrow, and it remains unclear whether Callais v. Louisiana will finally be among the cases issued this week.

For more detailed information, visit the Florida Senate redistricting map.

Florida Redistricting

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) yesterday released a new congressional map that he is urging the legislature to approve during the special session scheduled to begin today.

The Governor issued a statement saying that redistricting is necessary because “Florida got shortchanged in the 2020 Census, and we’ve been fighting for fair representation ever since. Our population has since grown dramatically, and we have moved from a Democrat majority to a 1.5 million [person] Republican advantage. Drawing maps based on race, which is reflected in our current congressional districts, is unconstitutional and should be prohibited.”

Widely viewed as a response to the 10D–1R Virginia map approved by voters last week, the Governor unveiled a Florida proposal that would likely shift the delegation from a 20-8 Republican advantage to a 24-4 advantage.

The current Florida map features 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats. It appears that at least three current Democratic House members — Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) — would likely face significantly more difficult paths for re-election and enter the general election as underdogs.

In a new 23rd District lying in the Ft. Lauderdale area, it is probable that Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) and Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) would be paired in a Democratic primary, with the winner favored to hold the seat in the general election.

The sitting Democrats who would have a district on the new map are: Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) and the open 20th District.

In the latter seat, former Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar), who resigned from the House while facing federal indictments in addition to violating 25 House ethics provisions, would see an open Democratic seat in her area. Although she has stepped down from Congress, Cherfilus‑ McCormick has not closed her campaign account and indicated that she intends to run for the new seat.

The new 20th District is one she would likely have been able to hold were it not for her legal troubles. Six other Democrats had already entered the race, and the new configuration suggests that all of them will remain in the contest. Although she is running again, Cherfilus‑McCormick’s prospects for returning to Congress appear slim at best.

The South Florida portion of the map appears to create two new open Republican seats: one coastal district (FL‑25) between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, and another to the west (FL‑22) that stretches across the peninsula to the Gulf Coast.

Political data for the proposed districts has not yet been released or analyzed, so decisions about where certain members ultimately run could shift as more information becomes available. For example, because many of the South Florida districts are expected to lean only slightly Republican, Reps. Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz may have multiple potential districts to consider if they choose to remain in Congress, though none would offer a particularly favorable political landscape.

There are still many unanswered questions surrounding the proposed Florida map, but the DeSantis plan is currently the most fully developed option on the Republican side. It remains to be seen if the Governor can capture majority support in each legislative chamber. If he does, the plan would significantly strengthen Republican prospects for retaining their narrow US House majority in the 2026 election.

CA-48: Competitive Without Issa

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 27, 2026

House

San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R)

Texas and California have attracted the most attention when it comes to 2026 mid-decade redistricting, and a newly released poll highlights one of the seats that Democrats had marked as a major California target.

Survey USA has published fresh data for California’s new 48th CD anchored in San Diego County. This is one of the Republican‑held seats that Democrats substantially re-drew during the state’s redistricting process.

Incumbent GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is not seeking re-election. After the Congressman announced his retirement plans, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) shifted his campaign from challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) in District 49 to running for the open 48th.

The switch was strategically logical: the 48th leans more Republican than the 49th, Desmond avoids facing a four‑term incumbent, and the district includes a much larger portion of his current supervisorial constituency.

Dave’s Redistricting App rates the new 48th at 50.6D – 48.7R, a notable shift from the previous version’s 58.3R – 39.8D. Even so, the new draw remains competitive for a Republican candidate.

The latest S-USA survey signals that this seat may be more difficult for Democrats to flip the map drawers originally professed. The poll (April 14-19; 500 likely CA-48 jungle primary voters; live interview & text) shows Desmond leading with 25 percent, followed by another Republican, businessman Kevin O’Neill, at 13 percent. The fact that this study raises the possibility that two Republicans could qualify for the general election is a significant development.

Under California’s top‑two “jungle primary” system, all candidates appear on a single ballot, and the first and second place finishers regardless of party and percentage attained move on to the November general election. With nine Democrats, two Republicans, and one No Party Preference candidate in the race, the Democratic vote could split widely enough for Desmond and O’Neill to finish first and second, thus effectively shutting the Democrats out of the general election.

The leading Democrat, frequent candidate Ammar Campo-Najjar, posts 12 percent support in the Survey USA poll. When combining all candidates by party, Republicans collectively draw 38 percent in the ballot test and Democrats 37 percent. Based on these early numbers, the 48th District appears to be a genuine toss‑up and a contest likely to attract national attention as the cycle progresses.

Republicans would likely be somewhat stronger if Rep. Issa sought re-election, though the advantage would be limited. The new 48th District includes areas the Congressman does not currently represent, particularly a significant portion of Riverside County.

Supervisor Desmond’s district includes the northern portion of San Diego County that falls within the new 48th, including key population centers such as part of the city of Escondido and the San Marcos municipality. The latter entity, in particular, is where Desmond’s presence as the leading GOP candidate provides an advantage. While the current 48th does not include San Marcos – a city of nearly 100,000 residents – the new 48th does, and Supervisor Desmond already represents that community.

The 48th’s Riverside County portion, where none of the candidates from either party hold elected office, is more Democratic-leaning, due in part to the inclusion of the Palm Springs area and several desert communities.

The new California map has been framed as one that could deliver five additional seats to Democrats. However, with Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District actually becoming several points more Republican than the current configuration where he has twice won, and the GOP maintaining at least a competitive chance in District 48 with Desmond, the net gain could conceivably be closer to three seats rather than five.

The Unmentioned

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 24, 2026

Senate

In every election cycle, a previously overlooked Senate race surprises the political world by becoming highly competitive. In 2024, such a campaign occurred in Nebraska where Independent Dan Osborn became a major challenger to Sen. Deb Fischer (R).

While the Osborn campaign fizzled in the end and Sen. Fischer was re-elected with a six-point margin, the Independent, with Democratic Party support, managed to turn a race that appeared unopposed into a top challenger effort.

Right now, it appears there are three under-the-radar Senate races that could develop, two of which are in the primary cycle.

In Massachusetts, six-term Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is challenging Sen. Ed Markey (D) in the state’s Sept. 1 Democratic primary. While originally thought that Rep. Moulton was making a strange move — considering Sen. Markey had in 2020 defeated a member of the Kennedy family (then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III) in the latter’s home state, within their own party, and posted a full 10 percentage point margin — another primary challenge seemed a fool’s errand.

Yet, new polling and fundraising data suggests that the Congressman may become a serious challenger. He is one of more than a dozen Democratic younger office holders or activists challenging an elderly incumbent (Sen. Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the election), and willing to make age a campaign issue.

According to the new Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Moulton surprisingly outraised the incumbent, $1.051 million to $811,000 during Q1 2026. For the campaign, Moulton also leads Markey in cash-on-hand, $3.3 million to $2.5 million.

Polling, while still favoring the incumbent, suggests the race could close. According to the recently released Suffolk University poll (April 9-13; 500 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters; live interview) Sen. Markey holds a 47-30 percent lead. While he clearly posts an advantage beyond the polling margin of error, producing a ballot test where an incumbent is under 50 percent within his own party certainly suggests underlying vulnerability.

The Massachusetts primary campaign still has a long cycle, but the early development suggests we will see some meaningful action.

If there is a developing Republican sleeper Senate race, it may be in Minnesota. The GOP has a media savvy candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, who for more than a decade was the sideline reporter for NBC Sunday Night Football. Prior to joining NBC Sports, she was a game reporter for ESPN. Originally from Minnesota, Tafoya began her broadcasting career in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, so she has been a well-known figure in the state for decades.

After announcing her candidacy in late January, Tafoya has raised over $2 million for her Senate campaign. She is already the consensus Republican candidate and the two top Democrats, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), are likely headed for a contentious primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 11.

The Flanagan-Craig race is likely to reach a boiling point at the Democratic endorsing convention. Flanagan is favored to win the endorsement, and typically Minnesota candidates do not force a primary after the state party delegates choose their candidate. In this race, however, it is likely that we will see a Democratic primary no matter who wins the official party endorsement. Therefore, the hotly contested primary will allow Tafoya to prepare for the general election and pool her expanding money through the beginning of August.

Only one poll of potential general election pairings has been released and that came in February, soon after Tafoya’s formal announcement. Emerson College publicized their survey (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 likely Minnesota voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found Tafoya trailing Lt. Gov. Flanagan and Rep. Craig by seven and six points, respectively, with neither Democrat reaching 50 percent support.

With great unrest in the state considering the ICE controversy and the Minnesota federal grant fraud investigation that will become a top issue in November, and with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) running for Governor in what will be a quiet race since the Republicans have little chance, the seeds may be sown for a legitimate general election campaign despite the state’s reliable Democratic voting history.

Six years ago, South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham faced a major challenge and saw approximately $145 million spent against him, but he still recorded a 10-percentage point general election victory.

This year, his fight is likely in the Republican primary where businessman Mark Lynch has already put more than $5 million of his own money into the campaign. It is unlikely that this race will develop, but Sen. Graham is taking Lynch seriously. He has already banked $11.6 million for the campaign and is actively advertising throughout the state.

Sen. Graham has issues on his political right, because he has never been a favorite of the MAGA base vote even though he has become an ardent President Trump supporter. Therefore, this is another stealth Senate contest that likely deserves attention in the closing weeks of the primary campaign.