First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part II

2026 Texas Congressional Districts Map. Click here or on the above map to see an interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Special Election

Yesterday, we previewed the Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas Senate primaries. Today, we look at 20 of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts that will see political action in today’s primary. Texas is a 50 percent runoff state, so expect many of the succeeding campaigns to advance into a May 26 secondary election featuring the respective top two finishers.

In Texas’ 2nd District, Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) has primary opposition from state Rep. Steve Toft (R-The Woodlands). While Toft has good grass roots support from the conservative wing of the party, and even an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rep. Crenshaw has a major advantage in financial resources.

Though the Crenshaw victory margin will likely be lower than in the past, he is still favored to survive this challenge and win re-nomination.

The 8th District is open because Congressman Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring after two terms. This is one of the seats that will possibly elect outright a new Republican nominee who will eventually win the general election. The former America First Principles Institute attorney, Jessica Steinmann, is in the political driver’s seat. She has all the key endorsements and very little opposition, a surprisingly easy run for a safe Republican open seat.

The 9th CD is a Texas redistricting map new creation. This is an eastern Harris County seat that will go Republican in the general election. We will likely see a runoff here between Trump endorsed Alexandra Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

Tenth District Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) is retiring from the House after serving what will be 22 years when Congress adjourns in this session. In his place will be another Republican, but we will likely see two of the 10 Republican candidates advancing into a runoff election from tonight’s plurality vote total.

Republican attorney, Chris Gober who runs Elon Musk‘s Super PAC, is likely to be one of those participants. Possibly, businessman Ben Bius could be the other. This will be another race to watch closely in the May 26 Republican runoff.

In the South Texas 15th District, Democrats are hosting a primary with two candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) in the general election. Regional award-winning singer Bobby Pulido is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination tonight over emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. The general election, even though the district favors the two-term Congresswoman, will be competitive in November.

Back in Houston, the 18th District features an endangered incumbent who may lose renomination tonight. Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) is placed in the same district with the recently elected Christian Menefee, who won a special election on Jan. 31. The two are now vying for the regular term in the newly created 18th District in the 2025 Texas redistricting map.

Though Green represents much more of the current district than does Menefee (65 percent of the new district’s constituency compared to 26 percent), polling suggests that the younger man has the inside track tonight.

Lubbock GOP Congressman Jodey Arrington is retiring after this session of Congress, choosing not to seek a sixth term. His decision leaves another multi-candidate Republican primary battle that will likely end in a secondary runoff election.

Here in the 19th CD, agribusinessman Tom Sell has accumulated strong endorsements from the agriculture community along with raising the most money. He is likely to secure the first runoff position. Vying for second place appears to be Bienvenido organization head Abraham Enriquez, who has Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsement, and Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley.

With Congressman Chip Roy leaving the House to run for Attorney General, his 21st San Antonio/Hill Country district is another of the 10 open Texas seats. Retired baseball player Mark Teixeira, who has President Trump‘s endorsement, faces a series of Republican opponents, including former Federal Election Commission chairman Trey Trainor.

It is clear that Teixeira has the advantage over his 11 opponents, but whether he can win outright or will advance to a runoff is the question that will be answered tonight.

The open 22nd District is unique. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) is retiring, and his likely replacement is his identical twin brother, Trevor Nehls. The latter Nehls is a former Fort Bend County Constable. He is likely to win the Republican primary tonight without a runoff and is the odds-on favorite to replace his brother in the US House come November.

The 23rd District will be one of the seats that attracts the most attention tonight. Embattled incumbent Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) has been accused of having an extramarital affair with a staff member who later committed suicide through self-immolation, obviously a terrible and tragic story.

Gonzales was forced into a runoff in the 2024 election and survived by only a 354-vote margin. Firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera, who held him to that small victory two years ago, is back for another run and certainly the controversy that engulfs Gonzales could well change the outcome of this particular election. Also in the race is former one-term Congressman Quico Canseco who has not been particularly active. Going to a runoff here is likely, which could spell the end of Gonzales’ congressional career.

The 28th District, which touches the Mexican border, appears headed to hosting another hotly contested general election. Veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) faces only minor opposition for the Democratic nomination but will see a top-level opponent in the general election. Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina is expected to clinch the Republican nomination tonight, thus kicking off what promises to be a hot general election.

Many in the Republican Party expected Cuellar to switch parties after President Trump pardoned him from federal bribery charges, but such proved wishful partisan thinking. Look for this race to be in tossup mode all the way to November in a district that President Trump carried, 57-42 percent.

Returning to Harris County, Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) sees sizable new territory in her Democratic 29th CD, and former state Representative and ex- Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is opposing her for renomination.

Polling shows the Congresswoman ahead, but a minor third candidate creates the possibility that the first-place finisher, likely Rep. Garcia, is forced into a runoff. If so, all bets would be off for a May 26 secondary election. Irrespective of their nominee, the Democrats will hold the seat in November.

In Dallas County, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) is leaving her 30th District to run for the US Senate. This is another of the open seats that could be decided tonight. Mega church Senior Pastor Frederick Haynes is favored over opponents Barbara Mallory Carraway, a former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilmember, and fellow pastor Rodney LaBruce.

Winning the Democratic nomination in this 30th District is tantamount to clinching the general election from this urban district.

Turning to Central Texas, veteran 31st District Congressman John Carter (R-Round Rock) is facing a large number of Republican opponents (nine), but none seem able to coalesce a majority against the veteran lawmaker. Carter is expected to win outright tonight even though defeating so many opponents with a majority vote is always a formidable task.

Back in Dallas, the 32nd district is a newly created Republican seat in the 2025 redistricting map. The seat stretches from East Dallas almost to the Lake of the Pines in East Texas. This is a Republican primary battle, and we will likely see a runoff among two of three contenders: former minor presidential candidate Ryan Binkley, businessman Paul Bondar who ran for Congress in Oklahoma two years ago, and attorney Jace Yarborough, who has a strong list of endorsements including one from President Trump.

In the new 33rd District, which is self-contained in west Dallas County, freshman Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is choosing to seek re-election in this seat since incumbent Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) decided to retire.

In a surprise as candidate filing closed, former Congressman Colin Allred (D), who was expected to join the US Senate field, instead decided to run again for the House in the newly configured 33rd CD. This is another case where we may see an incumbent member defeated because Allred previously represented a part of this district and has enjoyed large leads in pre-primary polling and campaign resources.

Back in South Texas, the 34th District hosts a Republican primary with two candidates having the same surname. Former Congresswoman Myra Flores is again seeking to return to the House in this Brownsville anchored seat, and this time her main Republican opponent is attorney and Army veteran Eric Flores, who President Trump has endorsed. We will see which Flores wins the party nomination, but victory may require a runoff because six others are on the ballot.

The eventual GOP winner will challenge incumbent Vicente Gonzales in a hotly contested campaign from a newly drawn district that is much more Republican. In 2024, President Trump carried the new version of this southeast Texas CD that hugs the Gulf of America with 55 percent of the vote.

The new 35th District is anchored in South Bexar County (San Antonio) and then stretches into rural southeast Texas. Here, we see a crowded Republican primary with likely two people advancing to a runoff election, one of which is probably state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) who Gov. Abbott backs.

Local business owner Carlos De La Cruz (R), brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), is a candidate in this district and has President Trump’s support. College professor Josh Cortez is another contender who could conceivably qualify for the GOP runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election.

In Travis County, Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) will not seek a 17th term, yielding instead to two-term Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) because the two were paired in the new 37th CD. Without major opposition, Rep. Casar is a lock for renomination and re-election.

The Harris County-anchored 38th District is open because Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is running for the Senate. This is yet another open Republican seat that has drawn multiple candidates. Among the 10 running for the GOP nomination, only one, Tomball School Board Member Michael Pratt, has won an election.

President Trump and many other Republican leaders have endorsed mortgage broker Jon Bonck. Expect the primary vote to yield a runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be a lock for the general election.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 2, 2026

Special Elections

Voters in three states will continue casting their ballots for tomorrow’s first-in-the-nation set of midterm primary elections. The three states are: Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

All three places feature runoff systems. In Arkansas and Texas, candidates must receive majority support in the primary or a secondary election follows. It is unlikely we will see federal election runoffs in Arkansas, but if we do, those associated contests will be held on March 31. Texas will host a series of federal runoffs on May 26, ending what will be a very long runoff cycle.

North Carolina has only a 30 percent vote threshold to secure nomination, so runoffs are few and far between. If a federal runoff proves necessary, that election will be held on May 12th.

Texas will host the major primary of the early voting domains. We will cover the Texas House races in tomorrow’s report because the state has 10 open US House seats and four incumbents who are in highly competitive campaigns. Today, we look at the dynamic Texas Senate race.

Sen. John Cornyn is in a tough Republican primary battle against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Tomorrow’s primary vote will almost certainly force a runoff election, probably between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton. Therefore, the Republicans won’t likely identify their 2026 nominee until May 26.

On the Democratic side, a similarly robust battle has emerged between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Polls have been inconsistent and both candidates can point to surveys posting them to a lead.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, the Republicans will face an onslaught of campaign activity for the general election even though the Democrats have not won a Texas statewide election since 1994.

Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, the Lone Star State will host a premier general election Senate campaign.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is on the ballot seeking a fourth term. If he is re-elected in November and serves most of the succeeding term, Abbott will become Texas’ longest serving Governor in state history. He will secure renomination tomorrow. The likely Democratic winner is state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), but whether she reaches the 50 percent threshold is still open to question.

Congressman Chip Roy (R-Austin) is competing in the open Attorney General’s race and is leading in the polls. It is probable he will advance into the secondary runoff election,` most likely against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

The North Carolina Senate race will be one of the premier contests in the general election, but the nominations appear set even before all votes are cast in tomorrow’s Tar Heel State primary.

Former Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper will be the Democratic nominee while former Republican National Committee chairman, and ex-North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Michael Whatley will capture the GOP nomination. Both will easily exceed the 30 percent support threshold to win their respective primaries.

Three House races are worth monitoring tomorrow night. In the state’s newly redrawn 1st District, which now favors Republicans to a much stronger degree, a five-person GOP primary has emerged with the eventual winner challenging two-term Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

Former Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a victory spread of less than two percentage points in a more favorable Democratic district during the previous election. She is one of the favorites to win tomorrow night. The other significant competitors are Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse. Polling suggests that Buckhout has the edge over Sheriff Buck, but the outcome could be close.

In the Durham-Chapel Hill-anchored 4th CD in, two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough) is working to repel a challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who is backed by substantial outside money.

The two faced off, among others, in the 2022 Democratic primary when the seat was last open. Foushee, then a state Senator, outdistanced Allam by nine percentage points in that election. Rep. Foushee’s outside support has come in late, so the outcome remains a question mark though the Congresswoman is still regarded as at least a slight favorite.

Turning to western North Carolina, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) faces a challenge from former Green Beret Adam R. Smith who claims to have over 3,000 campaign volunteers. He doesn’t have a great deal of money, however, showing only $66,524 raised through the Feb. 11 pre-primary financial disclosure report.

More action appears on the Democratic side, where three candidates have raised over $100,000 for their primary campaign. The fundraising leader is agribusinessman Jamie Ager who attracted more than $940,000 through the same Feb. 11th financial disclosure deadline.

The 11th CD carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. President Trump scored a 54-45 percent victory here in 2024. On the edge of competitiveness, this race could be one to watch in the general election.

In Arkansas, none of the state’s top office holders see major renomination competition. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Reps. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro), Steve Womack (R-Rogers/Fayetteville), and Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) are unopposed. Sen. Tom Cotton (R) and Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) face only minor opponents.

Maine Senate: Platner Dominating

Maine oysterman Graham Platner political ad

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 27, 2026

Senate

A just released University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll (Feb. 12-16; 1,120 likely Maine voters; 478 likely Democratic primary voters; 406 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds oysterman Graham Platner crushing Maine Gov. Janet Mills in the 2026 US Senate Democratic primary contest.

According to the ballot test result, Platner, a Democratic Socialist with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), leads the Governor by a whopping 64-26 percent margin as the two move toward Maine’s June 9 primary election.

Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term as the state’s chief executive, and the national Democratic leadership recruited her into the Senate race. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the national party leaders certainly did not anticipate the ground support that upstart candidate Platner would be enjoying at least in the early going.

Controversy arose surrounding Platner, however, who owns an oyster farm and is an Iraq and Afghan War veteran. Months ago, it became public that he has a chest tattoo that is commonly associated with the Nazis (since covered over). He denied knowing such, but the incident caused at least one campaign staff member to resign and his campaign’s momentum to temporarily halt. He has, however, weathered the storm and is clearly moving into a dominant primary campaign position.

The polls have been spotty. While UNH has always found Platner way ahead of Mills, only three of the last four published surveys show him leading. The Pan Atlantic Research survey, from a firm that frequently polls the Maine electorate (Nov. 29-Dec.7; 318 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; live interview), found Gov. Mills posting a 47-37 percent advantage. Overall, however, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives averages, Platner has an average 20.3 percent advantage over Governor Mills for the length of their testing period.

On the money front, here too Platner enjoys a major advantage. Through the 2025 year-end Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, the oysterman had raised $7.9 million as compared to Gov. Mills’ $2.7 million. He also enjoys a cash-on-hand margin of $3.7 million to the Governor’s $1.3 million. In perspective, Gov. Mills joined the race only in October while Platner initiated his campaign at the beginning of 2025.

The fundraising imbalance has not stopped Gov. Mills from jumping out early with a media buy, however. She largely campaigns against President Trump and promotes her background in her main ad currently running, while Platner contrasts with his “working man” background and pins Mills to the financial elites in his spots.

The Platner momentum could be attributed to his major media buy currently airing, in which the ads place him working at his oyster farm and showing that he understands what it’s like to make a living through hard work and struggling to keep his head above the financial waters, a situation common to many Mainers. At the end of 2024, the state ranked 29th in household income, with a median average of $76,442. Neighboring Massachusetts, at $104,828 per household, is first in the nation.

The UNH poll also tested Platner and Mills individually against incumbent Susan Collins (R). For her part, the Senator recently made her official candidacy announcement and has raised more money than both Platner and Mills. According to the same FEC reporting period filing, Sen. Collins has accumulated $10.2 million for the campaign and holds $8 million in her committee account.

In the UNH poll, Platner posts a 49-38 percent advantage over Collins, but the Senator trails Mills only 41-40 percent. Being behind in polling is nothing new for Sen. Collins. In her 2020 race, which set campaign spending records in the state, she trailed in every published poll during the entire election cycle yet won the election with an eight-point spread over former state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D).

A late January Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey, however, (Jan. 20-24; 800 likely Maine voters; live interview & text) posted Sen. Collins to a pair of one-point, 45-44 percent, leads over both Platner and Gov. Mills.

It is already clear that Susan Collins’ re-election campaign, as it was in 2020, will be one of the premier US Senate contests, particularly considering the Republicans’ need to protect their 53-47 majority. The addition of Platner as a legitimate contender means this race will command national political media attention in the Democratic primary as well as the general election.

CA-1 Special Now Competitive

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 26, 2026

House

Former California state Senate President Mike McGuire

Northern California’s 1st District has been at the focal point of California congressional politics for the past eight months, and this week the CD attracts more political attention. A new candidate declared for the 1st District’s special election, and the individual’s decision to run for the short term is at least somewhat head scratching.

It was reported that former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) announced his special election candidacy. His move brings political risk that need not be undertaken. If McGuire simply remained in the Senate and ran only for the regular term he would be considered a prohibitive favorite, but not so for the special election.

When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced last August that he would convince the legislature to schedule a redistricting referendum to pass a congressional map in order to negate what a new Texas plan might do for Republicans, then-state Senate President McGuire became the central figure in delivering the two-thirds majority in his chamber necessary to schedule the special referendum election and provide support for Newsom’s bold move.

The voters had to approve the irregular redistricting plan because the process was usurping the California Citizens Commission map enacted in 2021. Therefore, both legislative and public approval were required.

Sen. McGuire, ineligible to seek re-election in 2026 because of state term limits, wanted to change the 1st District, which was safely Republican under the Commission map, into a Democratic seat that he could win. Hence, altering the 1st District to McGuire’s liking became the price for passing the mid-decade redistricting referendum legislation.

Instead of a 1st District under the Commission map that read 60.2R – 37.7D and occupied the territory in the northeastern corner of the state that Oregon and Nevada bordered, the new 1st is anchored in Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma and encompasses Democratic territory in the outer Sacramento suburbs. The new 1st CD’s partisan lean is 55.2D – 44.1R.

On Jan. 6, seven-term 1st District US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) suddenly passed away. His death leads to a special election that will be held concurrently with the state’s June 2 statewide primary election.

The first question the special election posed was whether the vote would be held in the 2021 version of the 1st CD or the new version. Because the special election would be for the purpose of filling the term that began in 2025, the 2021 map was determined as the correct venue.

Immediately, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), who, like Sen. McGuire is reaching the end of his allotted time in the legislature (in California, members can serve six-two year terms in the Assembly or three four-year Senate terms, or a combination not to exceed a combined 14 years), announced that he would compete in the special election. He has yet to state that he will run later this year in the new Democratic district.

Rather surprisingly, Sen. McGuire announced that he, too, will enter the special election. The move is questionable because the 2021 CD-1 is strongly Republican; therefore, he would be considered the underdog to Gallagher. Sen. McGuire would then turn around and seek election in the new 1st CD, regardless of the special election outcome.

The move adds political risk to McGuire’s personal congressional plan, especially since the special election winner will only serve a few months. Should McGuire lose to Gallagher in the special, the former’s air of invincibility for the new seat might be punctured and he will likely have adjusted some issue positions in his attempt to win in conservative territory that might hurt him when campaigning in the new liberal district.

Thus, his losing might make transitioning into the Democratic 1st District during the regular election more difficult. As a result, the move might give Gallagher or another Republican a better chance against McGuire in the regular election even though they will all compete in what should be a reliably new Democratic district.

Under California special election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot in jungle primary form. Should a contender receive majority support in the first vote, the individual would be elected and immediately take office. If no one receives 50 percent or above, the top two finishers would advance to a runoff election on Aug. 4.

Candidate filing for the special election will conclude on April 9. Currently, the only other candidate to announce for the seat is non-profit organization consultant Audrey Denney (D).

NC-4: Rep. Foushee on the Precipice

On Jan. 31, 2026, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee and Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam participated in a MAPAC-hosted and moderated candidate forum. This will give you a sense of each of the candidate’s positions. (Watch on YouTube)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 25, 2026

House

Two-term North Carolina Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) is in a major fight as she and her opponent engage in political combat during the final campaign days prior to the March 3 primary.

In 2022, Foushee, then a state Senator, defeated Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam by nine percentage points to win a contested eight-person Democratic primary. Foushee would then go onto record an easy general election win in a 4th Congressional District designed to elect a Democrat. In 2022, the seat was open because veteran Rep. David Price (D) retired from elective politics.

Rep. Foushee had an easy first re-election run in 2024, but this year’s Democratic primary has turned hot. Allam, still a member of the Durham County Commission, returned to challenge Rep. Foushee, and though her own campaign has not been flush with campaign cash, several outside groups are spending a combined $1 million to promote Allam for the purpose of unseating Rep. Foushee.

About half of the independent money comes from a pro-Palestinian group entitled “American Priorities.” In 2022, Foushee received strong backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), though so far not to the same degree in this campaign. The American Priorities’ objective is to serve as a counter to AIPAC.

The second major pro-Allam group, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, is the “Leaders We Deserve” organization that deposed Democratic National Committee officer David Hogg founded. This group is active, and will be active, in Democratic primaries with the goal of dislodging Democratic incumbents they view as being part of the political establishment. Combined, the organizations give Allam a 3:1 advantage in outside spending.

Some of the funding coming to help Rep. Foushee is from AI and cryptocurrency interests, but they will have to step up their spending in the last week to propel the incumbent closer to an even footing with the challenger in terms of persuasion expenditures.

A major issue that Allam emphasizes is her opposition to the new AI data center being built in the city of Apex. Allam argues that the facility’s planned energy usage will increase rates relating to water and electricity utilities, and the types of permanent jobs created will be relatively few in number and not targeted to the local populace. Rep. Foushee also has voiced some concern over the plant but in the past has enjoyed strong support from AI interests. Therefore, Allam is attempting to create a clear contrast on this particular issue.

The 4th District of North Carolina lies to the west of the capital city of Raleigh, containing Durham and Orange counties and parts of Chatham and Wake counties. The major population centers are the cities of Durham, Chapel Hill, Apex, and Hillsborough.

The seat is safely Democratic with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 73.0D – 24.8R, so winning the general election for either woman would not be in doubt. The 4th District has a 44.2 percent minority voting age population (VAP), with the dominant Black minority segment comprising 21.7 percent of the district’s VAP. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 4th CD with a 71.8 – 26.5 percent margin even though she lost the statewide vote.

The district has changed since the two women faced each other four years ago. Because of the 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan, 37 percent of the 4th District’s territory is different. The city of Apex, previously mentioned as being the host city for the controversial new data center, is part of the added constituency, which is another reason why Allam is making the plant a major campaign issue and a comparison focal point between she and Rep. Foushee.

As many as three Democratic US House incumbents, including Rep. Foushee, are in competitive races that could result in each losing his or her battle for renomination on March 3. The others are Texas Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch).

Should Foushee and Rep. Green lose next week, the budding activism from some within the Democratic Party who are organizing to elect younger and more aggressive Representatives will get a major national boost. Rep. Johnson, should she lose, would be attributed solely to redistricting.

Texas Incumbents Who Could Lose

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Texas Races

Multiple Republican seats are in jeopardy in the upcoming Texas primary on March 3.

Knocking on the door of the March 3 Texas primary, we see analyses surfacing predicting that more than one Texas congressional incumbent could lose their renomination battles.

The Senate race has attracted a great deal of attention throughout the early part of the 2026 election cycle. Regarding incumbent John Cornyn’s Republican primary status, his fate will not likely be decided on March 3.

The Senator, on the ballot for a fifth term, is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election likely with Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also in the race and making positive strides. It is probable, however, that he will fall short of securing one of the two available runoff ballot positions.

For months, large numbers of polls have shown neither Sen. Cornyn nor AG Paxton coming anywhere near the 50 percent plateau in primary ballot test results. In fact, neither has even seriously approached the 40 percent mark at any time after July. Since then, 30 Texas Senate primary campaign polls have been publicly released.

Typically, when an incumbent is forced into a runoff in those states where securing majority support is necessary to win a party nomination, the challenger prevails in the secondary election because a majority of voters had already forced the incumbent below the required victory vote percentage figure.

A Cornyn-Paxton runoff may be different, however. First, Texas now has a long runoff cycle – from March 4 through May 26 – so much can change in a long campaign duration.

Secondly, Sen. Cornyn enjoys a significant campaign resource advantage as evidenced in that AG Paxton is only moderately advertising at the end of the primary period. He is obviously pooling his lesser resources for the runoff. By holding his money, Paxton indicates that he perceives fundraising will be difficult against Cornyn in a one-on-one situation.

And, finally, Paxton has been scandal-ridden in the past, and those negatives will be wholly revisited in the runoff cycle.

Reports suggest that three US House incumbents could lose their renomination battles with an outside possibility of a fourth.

The new redistricting map has forced incumbents Al Green (D-Houston) and newly elected (Jan. 31 special election) Christian Menefee (D-Houston) into a new 18th District. Though 65 percent of the constituency in the new 18th comes from Green’s 9th CD, the polling overwhelmingly suggests that Rep. Menefee is in prime position to win the Democratic primary and do so without a runoff.

Also on the Democratic side, in Dallas County, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) saw her 32nd District turned into a Republican seat that now stretches into East Texas. Because the new seat heavily favors Republicans, Rep. Johnson decided to seek re-election in the new 33rd District, after Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) chose to retire.

The move looked promising for Rep. Johnson until former Representative and 2024 Democratic US Senate nominee Colin Allred suddenly decided to end his announced 2026 Senate campaign and instead filed for District 33. Polling suggests that Allred’s strong name identification and resource advantage will send him back to the US House of Representatives and relegate Rep. Johnson’s congressional service to one term.

Clearly the most bizarre race involves three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio); he too is in danger of failing to win renomination. In 2024, Gonzales, not a favorite among the hard right faction within his sprawling 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, was forced into a runoff election with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera and he survived by only 354 votes. In the current campaign, not only did Herrera return, but former Congressman Quico Canseco is also in the race.

Rep. Gonzales has been at the forefront of a political storm resulting from a tragic situation where a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, was alleged to be in an extramarital affair with Gonzales and then committed suicide by lighting herself on fire. As the campaign draws to conclusion, Santos-Aviles’ husband is coming forward to confirm his wife’s affair with Gonzales and accuses the Congressman of abusing his power.

Though the challengers have little in the way of campaign funding, the negative publicity and the closeness of his 2024 renomination campaign makes Rep. Gonzales highly endangered.

Some point to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) as being another incumbent on the precipice of defeat. His main opponent is state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) who has a strong conservative following. Rep. Crenshaw dominates the resource phase of the campaign, and though Toth has a support base it is unlikely that he will dethrone the Congressman in this primary battle. With four candidates on the ballot, however, moving to a runoff is possible. This is a race to watch on March 3.