The Switch States

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, October 20, 2026

As we move closer to Election Day, and with early voting now underway in 27 states, several statewide contests are beginning to gel. Notably, polling in four states suggests voters may be poised to split their tickets between Governor and US Senator, a pattern that has been rare in recent cycles.

In Iowa, the latest individual poll finds respondents leaning toward Republican Ashley Hinson for the Senate and Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand for Governor. In three other states, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas, the Republican candidates lead the Governor’s race, while Democrats have the edge in the respective Senate campaigns.

The co/efficient polling firm conducted the Iowa poll (Oct. 15-19; 863 likely Iowa general election voters; live interview) and found GOP Rep. Hinson trending ahead of state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) by a 48-45 percent count. In the Governor’s race, the same polling sample respondents favor Democrat Sand over Republican businessman Zach Lahn by a reversed 49-45 percent split.

Turning to Georgia, Quantus Insights (Oct. 15-17; 755 likely voters; live interview & text) also detects a split. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) holds a 51.8 – 44.9 percent lead over Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) in the Senate race. Yet in the Governor’s contest, Republican businessman Rick Jackson edges former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 48.2 – 46.6 percent.

In New Hampshire, the divide is even more pronounced. The National Public Affairs research firm (Oct. 8-12; 600 likely voters; live interview & text) shows Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑ Manchester) leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) 50-43 percent in the Senate race. Meanwhile, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) posts a commanding 54-38 percent advantage over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Two pollsters surveying the Texas races find Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading in his bid for a fourth term, while Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D‑Austin) continues to hold an edge in the Senate race.

The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston (Oct. 10-14; 2,000 likely voters; online) shows Abbott narrowly ahead of state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D‑Austin) 49-46 percent, while Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by a similarly slim margin, 48-46 percent.

A YouGov/CBS News survey (Oct. 8-16; 1,458 likely voters; online) finds similar results: Abbott leads 52-48 percent, and Talarico tops Paxton 51-49 percent. The fact that the YouGov poll reports 100 percent of respondents choosing a candidate suggests the use of push‑style forced‑choice questions.

Considering the past few election cycles where partisanship appeared to rule the day from the top of the ballot to the bottom, these data points may indicate a modest reemergence of ticket splitting returning to the American electorate.

The four states in question – Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Texas – share little in common geographically or economically, which lends credence to the idea that this pattern may be more than isolated race‑specific variation.

If these trends persist through Election Day and voters in the tested states ultimately elect candidates from different parties for Governor and US Senator, the outcomes would merit post‑election study. Understanding the drivers of ticket splitting in each state could help determine whether certain voter segments are beginning to look beyond party labels and instead evaluate more candidates individually.

South Dakota Close

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 19, 2026

Late last week, a Concord Public Opinion Partners poll drew attention for producing a Montana US Senate result that showed Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, leading Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme. A new Concord survey now reports a similarly competitive finding in the South Dakota Senate race.

The Montana poll, however, was largely debunked due to a sampling universe that skewed Democratic. In response, the Alme campaign released a counter‑survey from Peak Insights (Oct. 7-12; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) showing Alme ahead of Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, 44-29-12 percent. This result aligns with all other polling of the race aside from Concord’s.

In South Dakota, Concord’s numbers fall within the range of other post‑primary surveys. The new study (conducted for Democrats for Education Reform; Oct. 6-8; 400 likely South Dakota voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Mike Rounds (R) in a virtual dead heat with Independent Brian Bengs, trailing 42-43 percent.

Within the same sampling universe, Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden leads Democratic former state legislator Dan Ahlers by 10 points, 48-38 percent. Concord also shows Attorney General Marty Jackley running ahead of Democrat Nikki Gronli by just a 44-41 percent spread, also a closer‑than‑expected margin for the open at‑large US House race.

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Montana Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 16, 2026

Senate

A new poll conducted for Independent Montana Senate candidate Seth Bodnar finds him, for the first time, leading Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme in the open statewide race. While the survey raises methodological questions, its topline results suggest the campaign’s closing weeks could prove more challenging for Republicans than initially expected.

The Concord Public Opinion Partners poll (Oct. 6-8; 405 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text), conducted for the Bodnar campaign, shows the Army Green Beret veteran and former University of Montana president running as an Independent, leading Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and Libertarian candidate Kyle Austin by a 37-35-13-1% margin.

Controversy has surrounded this race since filing time. Sen. Steve Daines (R) initially filed for re‑election, but withdrew as the filing window closed. Standing with him at the Secretary of State’s office was Alme, who filed his own candidacy just as the period expired. The maneuver prevented any other Republican from entering the race, effectively rigging the primary for Alme. Unsurprisingly, the move angered GOP leaders and a substantial share of Republican base voters.

According to the Bodnar poll, those feelings persist: Alme’s approval rating stands at a dismal 31:48 favorable/unfavorable, compared to Bodnar’s 41:35. President Trump is also significantly underwater at 41:58 in a state he carried three times by landslide margins. Additionally, the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans by only one point, 37-36 percent.

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Mississippi in Play?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 15, 2026

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

It seems that nearly every day brings a new publicly released poll suggesting that what is typically considered safe Republican terrain may be unexpectedly competitive. Today’s example is Mississippi.

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 511 likely general election voters, conducted online from Oct. 12-14, shows Sen. Cindy Hyde‑Smith (R) leading eastern regional Mississippi District Attorney Scott Colom (D) by just 52–48 percent.

The sample size is small for a statewide poll, and the questionnaire consists of only a single item: the ballot test. While the demographic and political weighting appears consistent with statewide benchmarks, the absence of undecided or refusing respondents strongly suggests that the published results reflect only those who answered the ballot question, not the full set of individuals who opened the email invitation. The pollsters did not disclose the total number of opens, leaving the true response rate unknown.

Because Mississippi is one of only three states, Alabama and New Hampshire being the other two, that do not offer early voting, the race will not provide early vote progression indicators. Therefore, this contest will culminate on Nov. 3.

In recent weeks, both parties and their allied outside groups have invested heavily to supplement candidate spending. According to The Down-Ballot political blog, a Soros‑aligned Super PAC previously spent $1.6 million to boost Colom, Now the American Bridge Super PAC is adding more than $2 million in advertising, alongside roughly $500,000 from other groups. Republican outside organizations have countered with $1.6 million to support Hyde‑Smith.

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The Minnesota Dichotomy

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Click on the map to see an interactive version at
Dave’s Redistricting App.

One of the more intriguing states to watch in the coming election is Minnesota. Though long a reliably Democratic state, arguably the most reliable in the nation having last voted Republican for president in 1972, citizen unrest, a major governmental fraud scandal, and inconsistent polling data suggest the Northland could deliver electoral surprises.

Even the state’s premier politician, Senior Senator and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar, who has averaged 60 percent of the vote across her four US Senate victories, is underperforming expectations in her open gubernatorial bid.

While she remains favored to defeat state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring) in the Nov. 3 general election, six post‑Aug. 11 primary polls place Klobuchar’s average support at just 48.8 percent, well below her historical statewide performance. Since the primary, her average lead over Demuth is only 8.7 points, and a smaller 6.7 points in the four surveys conducted entirely in September and October.

The Senate race is even more competitive. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster for NBC and ESPN who began her media career covering Minnesota sports, is running a strong campaign against Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

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Close Race Watch: NC-1

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By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, October 13, 2026

House

One of the key redistricting driven congressional contests likely to become a point race, and a major indicator of the national House trend on election night, lies in eastern North Carolina where conflicting signals are emerging.

Earlier this year, the Republican legislature redrew the state’s congressional map with the explicit goal of transforming the 1st Congressional District, which two-term Rep. Don Davis (D Snow Hill) represents, into a Republican leaning seat. In 2024, Rep. Davis defeated retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) by a narrow 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin, a spread of just 6,307 votes from 376,324 ballots cast.

The legislature changed the 1st District with a direct territory swap from Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-Greenville) 3rd District. The trade of just over 271,000 people, about 36 percent of the total 1st District population, significantly changes the political complexion of both CDs, and should allow the Republican congressional nominee to win both.

Under the 2026 map, the 1st District now covers most of North Carolina’s Atlantic coastal region and includes 23 counties and parts of two others, compared to 21 counties and part of one in 2024.

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Early Voting: First Take

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 12, 2026

Early Voting

Voting is already underway in 15 states, and initial reports generally align with polling that suggests a clear Democratic Party advantage in the 2026 midterm elections.
 
Historically, early vote performance has been a useful indicator of the final result: when a party exceeds its previous early voting performance in a like election it is a good sign that the individual party will do well when all votes are counted.  

As early voting becomes more widespread around the country, however, both in person and by mail, the predictive early vote value may be diminishing.  The Virginia 2025 statewide elections demonstrated this clearly.  Early voting showed improved Republican performance, yet the final outcome was a Democratic landslide.

Regarding the 2026 election, only six of the fifteen earliest voting states publish the partisan division of the returned ballots.  Ironically, the only state where Republicans are currently exceeding their 2022 early vote share is California, one of the party’s weakest states.  There, Republicans account for 31.8 percent of recorded early ballots, compared to 27.5 percent in 2022.  

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Democrats Expanding the Map

By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 9, 2026

Senate

For Democrats to claim a Senate majority, they must first protect all four of their vulnerable seats and then convert four Republican states. Because most of the competitive states lean strongly Republican, party leaders have focused on creating as many competitive contests as possible.

This cycle, they have persuaded their Senate nominees in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota to withdraw, allowing Democrats to consolidate support behind Independent candidates who, in each case, are former Democrats.

They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, urging Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead to step aside in favor of Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, but she refused. Ironically, Montana is the state where the strategy might have been most effective because the Independent candidate here has the strongest background and campaign ability.

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Abbott Also Teetering

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 8, 2026

While most Texas political coverage has focused on polling that shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) after Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn for the Republican nomination, new data suggests he is not the only lagging GOP statewide candidate in this cycle.

Three consecutive surveys now find three‑term Gov. Greg Abbott (R) trailing state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), a surprising turn in a race long assumed to favor the incumbent.

A trio of pollsters now find Hinojosa now pulling into the lead. Guidant Polling & Strategy (for the Public First Action Super PAC; Sept. 20-28; 800 likely Texas general election voters) shows Hinojosa ahead 46-42 percent. Siena University (for The New York Times; 9/21-30; 615 TX likely general election voters) finds a similar 49-46 percent advantage. Online international pollster YouGov (Sept. 20-Oct. 5; 3,625 likely voters) places the Hinojosa margin at 48-47 percent.

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Governors’ Races: 2027 Redistricting

Click on map to go to Dave’sRedistrictingApp. Use the dropdown on the left labeled US Map View to navigate to the Redistricting Control Map.


By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The Governors’ races are plentiful in 2026, with 36 statewide chief executive contests heading toward conclusion. How the most competitive races will shape the post‑Callais v. Louisiana redistricting cycle next year is a key question the new Governors will partially answer. The 2026 map is unusually symmetrical: of the 36 races, 18 are in Democratic‑held states, 18 in Republican states, and exactly half are open‑seat contests.

With Democrats primed to take the House majority in the new Congress, redistricting will again be a major factor in the 2028 election cycle. The landmark Supreme Court decision last April on the Callais case effectively eliminates the need to create protected majority minority districts, giving states the opportunity to bring their congressional and state legislative maps into compliance with the new redistricting criteria.

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