Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

The Point Race: Michigan Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Senate

On election night, Nov. 3, the Michigan Senate race is likely to offer one of the earliest and clearest signals about the direction of the Senate majority. If Republican Mike Rogers wins, it would strongly suggest that the GOP is positioned to retain its current majority. If the Democratic nominee prevails, it would re-open the path for Democrats to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024.

As you know, Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats, bringing their total to 47. At present, Democrats are favored to convert the open North Carolina seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

If they hold Michigan and flip North Carolina, they would still need three additional seats to reach majority control. If they lose Michigan, the conversion requirement rises to four, likely putting the majority out of reach for this election.

The Michigan primary is fast approaching on Aug. 4, and the final shape of the race may still produce a razor‑thin outcome, but now between just two contenders.

Last week, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak) suspended her campaign largely due to lagging polling. Her exit leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services director Abdul El‑Sayed as the principal Democratic contenders.

A month ago, all three candidates were polling competitively and had comparable financial resources. Since then, movement has shifted toward Rep. Stevens after Dr. El‑Sayed held early leads in several surveys.

This week, retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), previously neutral in the race to succeed him, endorsed Stevens. Additional Democratic establishment figures have followed suit. Dr. El‑Sayed responded by emphasizing his outsider status, saying, “this is the establishment backing the establishment.”

Mike Rogers, the former seven‑term Congressman, will again be the Republican nominee. He lost the open 2024 Senate race to current incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D) by just three‑tenths of a percentage point – 19,006 votes out of more than 5.58 million cast. Viewed as an underdog for much of that campaign, Rogers surged late as polling tightened and ultimately finished with a narrow loss after leading through much of the vote count.

His biggest challenge in 2024 was fundraising; Slotkin outspent him by more than a 4:1 ratio. Outside groups helped narrow the gap, but she maintained a decisive resource advantage. That dynamic has changed in 2026. Rogers, largely unencumbered in the Republican primary and buoyed by his strong 2024 finish, is now at financial parity with the Democrats and holds a stronger cash‑on‑hand position because his opponents have spent heavily in their nomination fight.

Polling shows Rogers performing slightly better against Rep. Stevens than against Dr. El‑Sayed, though all matchups remain close. Aggregate polling sites – Real Clear Politics, Race to the White House, and 270toWin – show Dr. El‑Sayed with small average leads between 0.5 and 2.5 points.

Rep. Stevens holds average leads between 0.5 and 1.3 points, though her overall margin is inflated by a single outlier survey from TIPP Insights (May 20–23; 1,456 registered Michigan voters; online) showing her ahead by seven points. Rogers has led Stevens in four of the nine 2026 surveys that isolate the pair.

The general election promises to be hard‑fought, intensely competitive, and close. The outcome will be highly consequential and may offer an early indication of broader trends in the remaining Senate contests.

A Bit More Senate Clarity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

The South Carolina Republicans and Maine Democrats have made decisions about plans for replacing their respective US Senate nominees, bringing greater logistical clarity to both states’ 2026 US Senate political landscapes.

South Carolina

Darline Graham Nordone

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death has thrown the South Carolina Republican Party into turmoil, and party leaders have now opted to hold an irregular, expedited primary to select a new US Senate nominee. Candidate filing will close on July 28 for a statewide Aug. 11 primary, followed by an Aug. 25 runoff if no contender wins a majority. The eventual Republican nominee will face pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary on June 9.

The party is working with the Department of War to satisfy the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires adequate notice and ballot access for covered voters. Meeting these requirements under such a compressed timeline remains a major challenge.

In the interim, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has appointed the late Sen. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to fill the vacancy. She will serve until Jan. 3, 2027, unless she chooses to enter the special primary. Nordone has not announced her intentions, but she is not expected to run.

Most early interest in the Republican nomination is coming from the US House delegation, which creates additional logistical complications for both the state party and House GOP leadership. Reps. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) and Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston), both of whom ran for Governor – Norman finishing a close third and Mace placing a distant fifth – are unencumbered because they are not seeking House re-election.

Other members expressing varying degrees of interest include Reps. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), William Timmons (R‑Greenville), and Russell Fry (R‑Murrells Inlet/Myrtle Beach), with Fry appearing the most serious about entering the race.

Each of these three, however, faces a significant hurdle: they are already the official Republican nominees in their respective House districts. Because a candidate cannot seek two federal offices in the same election, entering the Senate primary would require withdrawing their congressional nominations.

While the Republican primary is a stand-alone vote, the regular general election, where Sen. Graham’s successor will ultimately be chosen, would feature both the US Senate and congressional contests.

Thus, should one or all of the aforementioned three House members enter the Senate special – win or lose – they would have to resign as the congressional district party nominee. This would lead to the district Republican Party apparatus also having to choose new nominees in the affected districts.

More developments are expected in the coming days as the party works to stabilize its nomination process and navigate the legal and logistical challenges because of Sen. Graham’s passing.

Maine

The Maine Democratic Party has scheduled a snap convention in Bangor on July 25 to select a replacement for withdrawn US Senate nominee Graham Platner. After delivering a video address late last week, Platner formally submitted his withdrawal papers to the Maine Secretary of State.

The convention will consist of 601 voting delegates: the 101 members of the Democratic State Committee and 500 county‑based delegates apportioned according to the raw vote totals Kamala Harris received in 2024. Because Harris performed strongest in southern Maine, the delegate pool will be heavily weighted toward that region, even though the in‑person convention is being held in Bangor. The northern location may simply reflect the challenge of securing a large venue on short notice.

In order to receive convention delegate votes, each individual must obtain 500 petition signatures from registered Democratic voters, with at least 50 coming from eight different counties. All signatures must be collected and returned to the proper election authorities by July 21.

This is a more difficult task than the seemingly small numbers indicate because the time frame is so short. Therefore, it is unclear exactly how many prospective candidates will qualify for the convention.

Under the party’s announced rules, once the candidate field is finalized, the five contenders receiving the most votes on the first ballot will advance to subsequent rounds. Voting will continue until one candidate secures a majority of the 601 delegates, assuming full attendance.

Several individuals have already begun positioning themselves for the nomination. Three losing gubernatorial candidates – former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, who finished first in the initial vote but lost under Ranked Choice Voting; former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who placed third; and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who finished fourth – are taking steps toward entering the race. Former congressional aide Jordan Wood, who placed a close third in the initial 2nd District primary vote, and fourth‑place finisher Paige Loud have also expressed interest.

Sen. Lindsay Graham Passes; What to Look for Next in South Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 13, 2026

Senate

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R‑SC) sudden and tragic death over the weekend has dramatically altered South Carolina’s 2026 federal political landscape and created several urgent procedural questions.

On June 9, Sen. Graham won renomination, making him the official Republican nominee for the November general election. Democrats nominated pediatrician and former congressional candidate Annie Andrews.

Two separate processes now come into play.

First, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) will appoint a replacement to serve out the balance of Sen. Graham’s term, which ends when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. The Governor may choose either a caretaker or someone who could later compete in the general election. Because this Senate seat is already on the ballot in 2026, a special election is unlikely, though one specific scenario could still trigger a subsequent vote.

Secondly, the South Carolina Republican Party leaders must determine how to replace Sen. Graham as the GOP nominee. Reports indicate party leaders, in consultation with Gov. McMaster, are preparing to hold a snap primary, with a candidate filing deadline potentially as early as July 21 and a primary on Aug. 11 or 18. A runoff, if needed, could occur as early as Aug. 25.

A major obstacle is compliance with the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires 45 days’ notice for elections involving covered voters. The proposed timeline does not meet this requirement. As a result, the South Carolina Republicans reportedly plan to request a waiver from the Department of War to permit an expedited nomination election.

Even if granted, such a waiver would almost certainly prompt legal challenges. Democrats would likely sue in federal court to overturn the decision. If Republicans lost, their remaining option would be to petition the US Supreme Court. All of this would consume valuable time and complicate the calendar.

If the legal strategy fails, Republicans could face the possibility of Sen. Graham’s name remaining on the November ballot. In that scenario, the party would need to spend resources educating voters to cast ballots for the late Senator, triggering a 2027 special election once he is posthumously elected.

Given the compressed timeline, clarity on the GOP’s approach could come as early as today.

Names are already surfacing about who may seek the Senate seat if there is an election, assuming that Gov. McMaster appoints a caretaker who won’t become a candidate. Reports suggest that the Governor may be in the process of asking Sen. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nardone, if she would have interest in serving as the interim appointee.

Individuals potentially coming to the forefront include Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who lost the primary for Governor and is therefore not a re-election candidate, and 7th District Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrells Inlet). A tweet surfaced that indicated Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), whose son, Attorney General Alan Wilson, is the Republican gubernatorial nominee would also be interested in competing for the Senate position.

All three already have active federal campaign committees and could quickly pivot to a Senate race. Prior to the primary, Fry reported over $950,000 cash on hand, Wilson just over $200,000, and Norman under $100,000. All federal funds could be transferred to a Senate campaign.

Reps. Fry and Wilson could be at the center of another controversy. They are already the Republican nominees in their individual congressional districts, meaning if they enter the Senate race, and one became the Senate nominee, he could be on the ballot for two federal offices in the same general election on Nov. 3. This may mean resigning from the House and thus causing another congressional vacancy.

The South Carolina Election Commission would need to determine whether a candidate may simultaneously seek two federal offices, whether one nomination must be relinquished, or whether dual candidacy is prohibited.

South Carolina will draw intense political attention in the coming week, similar to what Democrats faced in Maine following the Graham Platner withdrawal. With Sen. Graham’s passing, the number of open US Senate seats for the 2026 general election increases to 14 (10 Republicans and 4 Democrats).

Watching Close Congressional Races


By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 10, 2026

US House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and with consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data.

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (June 22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur on Aug. 11 – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP. A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill Rep. Don Davis (June 22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41 percent over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39 percent, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase shows an improvement though, and her actual standing is therefore likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (June 20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6 percent), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.

Platner Withdraws

Graham Platner, Democratic nominee for Maine’s US Senate seat, announces he is withdrawing from the race.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Senate

After issuing yesterday an 11-minute video to announce that he is withdrawing from the Maine US Senate race, Democratic nominee Graham Platner is under increased criticism for refusing to take individual responsibility for his once promising campaign crashing and burning.

Instead, Platner spent most of his video time blaming “they,” who he says made it impossible for him to continue his campaign. The reference is apparently directed toward the Democratic leaders who stated they would not spend national or state party money to help him if he remained in the race.

In the video, Platner categorically denied the “serious accusations” – presumably referring to Jenny Racicot’s statements alleging that he raped her earlier this decade – saying that “the things that have been claimed did not happen … it is not real.” Platner then went on to blame much “larger world forces” that are targeting him and rebuffed the accusations as “not remotely true.”

Platner further said, “it is not the false allegations that have brought us to where we are, it is the fact that they are being used by the political establishment to put structural pressure on us…those in power are using these allegations as an excuse to take away all of the things we need to run a campaign…on the basic level simply to function.”

He went on to say that “we went toe to toe with one of the most entrenched political systems in the history of the world and we won.” Is he referring to the Democratic National Committee? To the Maine Democratic Party? Now, Platner says, “those in power” are taking away his ability to continue, which is why he is suspending the campaign.

If the allegations are false as Platner says, then why leave the race? He claims he has no ability to continue the campaign because he will be cut off from funding, but with the amount of free earned media he draws and the “movement” of people behind him, it seems possible that he could traverse this rocky period.

If so, the money would return because the national Democrats need this seat if they are to have any chance of flipping the Senate majority and would certainly find a way to fund the effort. With last week’s US Supreme Court decision making party communication and candidate coordination much freer, the national and state Democratic party structure could move quickly with less legal impediments toward supporting a rebounding campaign.

It will now be interesting to see if Platner will face any legal consequences involving the rape accusations, and whether more women will come forward. In his video, Platner basically calls Racicot a liar. His action could encourage her to continue to further speak out and put pressure on the local authorities to investigate the situation as the crime that she claims his action to be.

In the immediate term, however, the Maine Democratic Party leaders must now decide upon a system to choose a new nominee without any direction from state law. They are apparently looking toward calling a snap convention to choose a nominee, hoping to attract as many as 500 delegates from the various counties and localities.

Their principal problem, however, is the clock. They have only until July 27, at the latest, to replace Platner assuming he turns in his withdrawal paperwork at the Monday, July 13 deadline. Logistically, this will require a major effort replete with criticism no matter how they proceed.

For his part, Platner says that he is not demanding any specific person be chosen as his replacement, rather, that the process be “open, transparent, and democratic.”

In that regard, another solution would be to have Gov. Janet Mills (D) call a special legislative session to institute a special Ranked Choice primary election for a point in August or even early September, just as the other New England states all have (Connecticut and Vermont: Aug 11; Massachusetts: Sept 1; New Hampshire: Sept 8; Rhode Island: Sept 9).

With Democrats holding the Governorship and majorities in both houses of the legislature, it seems this option would be the most open and transparent, while giving the people the opportunity of choosing the replacement nominee.

During this period of Democratic indecision, Maine voters can expect to see a wave of positive ads coming from Sen. Susan Collins’ campaign.

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.

Platner Under Pressure

Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner’s video response to yesterday’s rape allegations.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 7 2026

US Senate

Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner is now under extreme pressure to end his campaign and do so before July 13 so the Maine Democratic Party can choose a replacement. If Platner does leave the race, the party must replace him by July 27. Therefore, Platner’s decision and the party working to replace him must happen quickly.

A parade of Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and many other congressional and left-of-center organization leaders are now calling for Platner to withdraw from the race.

After a series of past behavioral issues involving women, claiming a fellow soldier should have died on the battlefield for disobeying military procedure even though the soldier was drawing enemy fire onto himself in order to save others, and claiming he is an oyster farmer when he only has one customer, his mother’s restaurant, the latest accusation may be the final blow.

Yesterday, Maine resident Jenny Rocicot said, according to CBS News, that “[Platner] violated multiple layers of consent that night. By coming into my home when I asked him not to, and by advancing on me when I told him not to, and furthermore, another incident that I had told him not to do.” She further said that Platner “raped her by definition.”

Platner responded by saying the allegation is “categorically false.” He further said, “regardless of the inaccuracy of the reporting, but mindful of the political reality it will inflict, we are taking the time to reflect on the best path forward for the state that I love, the people that I love, the movement I belong to, and the goal of defeating [Senator] Susan Collins. Those were the goals when we launched this campaign, and they remain my goals today,” Platner recited in a publicly released video message.

Reports are also surfacing indicating that Platner will leave the race by the end of the week. The candidate, however, has not yet confirmed that he will do so.

If he does suspend his campaign, the Maine Democratic Party will have to navigate uncharted waters. Maine election law gives no direction as to how a party must replace a withdrawn candidate, only that it must do so by the second Monday after the contender’s official resignation of candidacy statement, in this case July 27.

Therefore, the Maine Democratic leadership has no procedural guidelines. They are reportedly considering developing a type of caucus vote, or possibly a snap state convention. Another report says the state party leaders have already rejected giving the power to choose the replacement nominee to the 100-member Maine State Democratic Committee.

The Caucus idea seems fraught with peril. Initial challenges could arise since they would be unlikely to adhere to Maine’s deadlines for a candidate filing period and not giving potential candidates time to gather ballot access petition signatures.

Furthermore, any type of election would be subject to Ranked Choice Voting, which would take effect if no candidate reached 50 percent in an election. The RCV period would consume too much time after the vote to fall within the candidate replacement time parameters that state law sets.

Thus, aside from having the state chairman and/or state executive committee naming the replacement nominee, the most viable option would likely be hosting a snap convention. With only two weeks to prepare, however, logistics such as where to hold the heavily attended event and who would be allowed to participate could derail any type of major gathering.

In short, because there are no legal guidelines regarding replacing a nominated candidate, virtually any decision the state party leaders make will be open to question and perhaps legal challenges.

Additionally, if the party does find a way to replace Platner by the 27th, we can expect the Susan Collins campaign to attack their disregard of democracy. Protecting democracy is a major Democratic talking point, and the party would be vulnerable to an attack that highlights the hypocrisy of their rhetoric.

The Collins campaign, for example, could point to the national Democratic Party jettisoning President Biden from the 2024 national ticket after 14-plus million people had voted for him in party primaries and caucuses, and now the Maine Democratic Party is disregarding the votes of 156,084 Maine Democrats who awarded Platner 72.1 percent of the primary vote on June 9.

If so, the argument would be that both men were forced from their nominated position once it became evident that neither could win their respective general election thus making the people’s votes dispensable.

Regardless of what happens, the Maine situation will develop very quickly and promises to be a major political story for the next several weeks.

Examining Redistricting’s Impact on Elections in California & Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 6, 2026

Redistricting

Big predictions were made early in the year from both Democrats and Republicans as to how their side would perform in the newly drawn congressional districts particularly in California and Texas.

Republicans said they would gain five seats in Texas, while the California Democratic map was designed to neutralize that advantage. Are the new districts in both states so far performing as predicted?

Looking at the California jungle primary vote figures and general election statistical projections and polling in Texas, we can begin to determine if the benchmarks will be met.

First, the California districts: the plan was to convert Republican seats in Districts 1 (the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and now Rep. James Gallagher), 6 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), 22 (Rep. David Valadao), 38 (open seat due to pairing Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim in new District 40), and 48 (open seat because of Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement).

Though California’s slow counting and certification process for the June 2 jungle primary is still not finished, most ballots have now been scanned and tabulated giving us a clear picture of the November landscape.

In the northern 1st District, Rep. Gallagher easily won the June 2 special election outright in the previous 1st CD, but the November election in the new 1st will likely produce a different outcome. While Rep. Gallagher (R-East Nicolaus) leads state Sen. Mike McGuire (R-Sonoma County) in the jungle primary by 854 votes, the aggregate Democratic vote (three candidates) combined for 56.8 percent, suggesting that the new Republican Congressman has a major hill to climb if he is to win a full term in November.

In the Sacramento-anchored 6th District, Rep. Kiley is running as a No Party Preference (NPP) candidate, though he still caucuses with Republicans. He finished first in the jungle primary with 24.3 percent of the vote. For a time, it appeared that Rep. Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield would both advance, but former state Sen. Richard Pan (D) ultimately claimed the second spot. The aggregate Democratic vote among four candidates is 54.1 percent, making Kiley an underdog heading into the general election.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) has repeatedly won in a Democratic-leaning Central Valley district, losing only in 2018 before reclaiming the seat in 2020 and winning again in 2022 and 2024. Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) rates the new 22nd District at 52.1D – 47.2R, an improvement for Republicans compared to the previous 55.5D – 42.6R configuration. Yet in the jungle primary, Valadao took just 40.7 percent of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents combined for 59.3 percent.

Even so, Rep. Valadao has a track record of surviving in tougher districts than the new CA-22.

The new 38th District is solidly Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 57.1D–41.9R), positioning Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Rep. Hilda Solis (D) for an easy general election win. In the jungle primary, Solis received 47.6 percent of the vote, and the combined Democratic share from three candidates reached 64.2 percent. As a conversion district, the 38th is almost certain to move into the Democratic column in November.

In the new 48th District, opened by Rep. Issa’s retirement, Republicans still have a plausible path to holding the seat with San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. In the primary, Desmond led San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, 38.9 –20.8 percent, but the aggregate Democratic vote (nine candidates) was 54.1 percent.

Desmond already represents much of the new, largely rural 48th, which now ventures from San Diego County into Riverside County. The district does not include any part of San Diego city, meaning von Wilpert must build new relationships in unfamiliar territory. This race is one to watch in November.

In Texas, Republicans are targeting Districts 9 (an open seat created by pairing Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee in new District 18), 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar), 32 (Rep. Julie Johnson), 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez), and 35 (an open seat resulting from pairing Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in new District 37). GOP candidates in Districts 9 and 32 – investment banker Alexandra Mealer and attorney and Space Force veteran Jace Yarborough – should be considered clear favorites to flip their seats.

In the 28th District, a Pulse Decision Science poll of 400 likely voters shows Republican challenger and Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina leading Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), 46-38 percent. The GOP appears to have recruited its strongest possible candidate against Cuellar, and if this survey is accurate, Judge Tijerina has a strong chance to deliver a Republican pickup in November.

In the Brownsville-based 34th District, a Ragnar Research Partners poll (June 14-16; 400 likely voters; live interviews) finds Republican challenger Eric Flores running ahead of Rep. Gonzalez (D-McAllen), 44-41 percent, in a race widely viewed as a toss-up.

Finally, in the new San Antonio-anchored 35th District – rated by DRA at 50.9R – 46.7D – Republican businessman Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), appears to hold at least a slight edge over Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia (D).

Taken together, the emerging results in California and Texas suggest that both new congressional maps are largely performing as drawn. However, given the close margins and competitive dynamics in several districts, each state still has the potential to produce at least one notable November upset.