March 3rd Primary Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 2, 2026

Special Elections

Voters in three states will continue casting their ballots for tomorrow’s first-in-the-nation set of midterm primary elections. The three states are: Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

All three places feature runoff systems. In Arkansas and Texas, candidates must receive majority support in the primary or a secondary election follows. It is unlikely we will see federal election runoffs in Arkansas, but if we do, those associated contests will be held on March 31. Texas will host a series of federal runoffs on May 26, ending what will be a very long runoff cycle.

North Carolina has only a 30 percent vote threshold to secure nomination, so runoffs are few and far between. If a federal runoff proves necessary, that election will be held on May 12th.

Texas will host the major primary of the early voting domains. We will cover the Texas House races in tomorrow’s report because the state has 10 open US House seats and four incumbents who are in highly competitive campaigns. Today, we look at the dynamic Texas Senate race.

Sen. John Cornyn is in a tough Republican primary battle against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Tomorrow’s primary vote will almost certainly force a runoff election, probably between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton. Therefore, the Republicans won’t likely identify their 2026 nominee until May 26.

On the Democratic side, a similarly robust battle has emerged between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Polls have been inconsistent and both candidates can point to surveys posting them to a lead.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, the Republicans will face an onslaught of campaign activity for the general election even though the Democrats have not won a Texas statewide election since 1994.

Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, the Lone Star State will host a premier general election Senate campaign.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is on the ballot seeking a fourth term. If he is re-elected in November and serves most of the succeeding term, Abbott will become Texas’ longest serving Governor in state history. He will secure renomination tomorrow. The likely Democratic winner is state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), but whether she reaches the 50 percent threshold is still open to question.

Congressman Chip Roy (R-Austin) is competing in the open Attorney General’s race and is leading in the polls. It is probable he will advance into the secondary runoff election,` most likely against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

The North Carolina Senate race will be one of the premier contests in the general election, but the nominations appear set even before all votes are cast in tomorrow’s Tar Heel State primary.

Former Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper will be the Democratic nominee while former Republican National Committee chairman, and ex-North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Michael Whatley will capture the GOP nomination. Both will easily exceed the 30 percent support threshold to win their respective primaries.

Three House races are worth monitoring tomorrow night. In the state’s newly redrawn 1st District, which now favors Republicans to a much stronger degree, a five-person GOP primary has emerged with the eventual winner challenging two-term Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

Former Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a victory spread of less than two percentage points in a more favorable Democratic district during the previous election. She is one of the favorites to win tomorrow night. The other significant competitors are Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse. Polling suggests that Buckhout has the edge over Sheriff Buck, but the outcome could be close.

In the Durham-Chapel Hill-anchored 4th CD in, two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough) is working to repel a challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who is backed by substantial outside money.

The two faced off, among others, in the 2022 Democratic primary when the seat was last open. Foushee, then a state Senator, outdistanced Allam by nine percentage points in that election. Rep. Foushee’s outside support has come in late, so the outcome remains a question mark though the Congresswoman is still regarded as at least a slight favorite.

Turning to western North Carolina, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) faces a challenge from former Green Beret Adam R. Smith who claims to have over 3,000 campaign volunteers. He doesn’t have a great deal of money, however, showing only $66,524 raised through the Feb. 11 pre-primary financial disclosure report.

More action appears on the Democratic side, where three candidates have raised over $100,000 for their primary campaign. The fundraising leader is agribusinessman Jamie Ager who attracted more than $940,000 through the same Feb. 11th financial disclosure deadline.

The 11th CD carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. President Trump scored a 54-45 percent victory here in 2024. On the edge of competitiveness, this race could be one to watch in the general election.

In Arkansas, none of the state’s top office holders see major renomination competition. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Reps. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro), Steve Womack (R-Rogers/Fayetteville), and Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) are unopposed. Sen. Tom Cotton (R) and Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) face only minor opponents.

Maine Senate: Platner Dominating

Maine oysterman Graham Platner political ad

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 27, 2026

Senate

A just released University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll (Feb. 12-16; 1,120 likely Maine voters; 478 likely Democratic primary voters; 406 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds oysterman Graham Platner crushing Maine Gov. Janet Mills in the 2026 US Senate Democratic primary contest.

According to the ballot test result, Platner, a Democratic Socialist with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), leads the Governor by a whopping 64-26 percent margin as the two move toward Maine’s June 9 primary election.

Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term as the state’s chief executive, and the national Democratic leadership recruited her into the Senate race. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the national party leaders certainly did not anticipate the ground support that upstart candidate Platner would be enjoying at least in the early going.

Controversy arose surrounding Platner, however, who owns an oyster farm and is an Iraq and Afghan War veteran. Months ago, it became public that he has a chest tattoo that is commonly associated with the Nazis (since covered over). He denied knowing such, but the incident caused at least one campaign staff member to resign and his campaign’s momentum to temporarily halt. He has, however, weathered the storm and is clearly moving into a dominant primary campaign position.

The polls have been spotty. While UNH has always found Platner way ahead of Mills, only three of the last four published surveys show him leading. The Pan Atlantic Research survey, from a firm that frequently polls the Maine electorate (Nov. 29-Dec.7; 318 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; live interview), found Gov. Mills posting a 47-37 percent advantage. Overall, however, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives averages, Platner has an average 20.3 percent advantage over Governor Mills for the length of their testing period.

On the money front, here too Platner enjoys a major advantage. Through the 2025 year-end Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, the oysterman had raised $7.9 million as compared to Gov. Mills’ $2.7 million. He also enjoys a cash-on-hand margin of $3.7 million to the Governor’s $1.3 million. In perspective, Gov. Mills joined the race only in October while Platner initiated his campaign at the beginning of 2025.

The fundraising imbalance has not stopped Gov. Mills from jumping out early with a media buy, however. She largely campaigns against President Trump and promotes her background in her main ad currently running, while Platner contrasts with his “working man” background and pins Mills to the financial elites in his spots.

The Platner momentum could be attributed to his major media buy currently airing, in which the ads place him working at his oyster farm and showing that he understands what it’s like to make a living through hard work and struggling to keep his head above the financial waters, a situation common to many Mainers. At the end of 2024, the state ranked 29th in household income, with a median average of $76,442. Neighboring Massachusetts, at $104,828 per household, is first in the nation.

The UNH poll also tested Platner and Mills individually against incumbent Susan Collins (R). For her part, the Senator recently made her official candidacy announcement and has raised more money than both Platner and Mills. According to the same FEC reporting period filing, Sen. Collins has accumulated $10.2 million for the campaign and holds $8 million in her committee account.

In the UNH poll, Platner posts a 49-38 percent advantage over Collins, but the Senator trails Mills only 41-40 percent. Being behind in polling is nothing new for Sen. Collins. In her 2020 race, which set campaign spending records in the state, she trailed in every published poll during the entire election cycle yet won the election with an eight-point spread over former state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D).

A late January Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey, however, (Jan. 20-24; 800 likely Maine voters; live interview & text) posted Sen. Collins to a pair of one-point, 45-44 percent, leads over both Platner and Gov. Mills.

It is already clear that Susan Collins’ re-election campaign, as it was in 2020, will be one of the premier US Senate contests, particularly considering the Republicans’ need to protect their 53-47 majority. The addition of Platner as a legitimate contender means this race will command national political media attention in the Democratic primary as well as the general election.

CA-1 Special Now Competitive

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 26, 2026

House

Former California state Senate President Mike McGuire

Northern California’s 1st District has been at the focal point of California congressional politics for the past eight months, and this week the CD attracts more political attention. A new candidate declared for the 1st District’s special election, and the individual’s decision to run for the short term is at least somewhat head scratching.

It was reported that former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) announced his special election candidacy. His move brings political risk that need not be undertaken. If McGuire simply remained in the Senate and ran only for the regular term he would be considered a prohibitive favorite, but not so for the special election.

When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced last August that he would convince the legislature to schedule a redistricting referendum to pass a congressional map in order to negate what a new Texas plan might do for Republicans, then-state Senate President McGuire became the central figure in delivering the two-thirds majority in his chamber necessary to schedule the special referendum election and provide support for Newsom’s bold move.

The voters had to approve the irregular redistricting plan because the process was usurping the California Citizens Commission map enacted in 2021. Therefore, both legislative and public approval were required.

Sen. McGuire, ineligible to seek re-election in 2026 because of state term limits, wanted to change the 1st District, which was safely Republican under the Commission map, into a Democratic seat that he could win. Hence, altering the 1st District to McGuire’s liking became the price for passing the mid-decade redistricting referendum legislation.

Instead of a 1st District under the Commission map that read 60.2R – 37.7D and occupied the territory in the northeastern corner of the state that Oregon and Nevada bordered, the new 1st is anchored in Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma and encompasses Democratic territory in the outer Sacramento suburbs. The new 1st CD’s partisan lean is 55.2D – 44.1R.

On Jan. 6, seven-term 1st District US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) suddenly passed away. His death leads to a special election that will be held concurrently with the state’s June 2 statewide primary election.

The first question the special election posed was whether the vote would be held in the 2021 version of the 1st CD or the new version. Because the special election would be for the purpose of filling the term that began in 2025, the 2021 map was determined as the correct venue.

Immediately, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), who, like Sen. McGuire is reaching the end of his allotted time in the legislature (in California, members can serve six-two year terms in the Assembly or three four-year Senate terms, or a combination not to exceed a combined 14 years), announced that he would compete in the special election. He has yet to state that he will run later this year in the new Democratic district.

Rather surprisingly, Sen. McGuire announced that he, too, will enter the special election. The move is questionable because the 2021 CD-1 is strongly Republican; therefore, he would be considered the underdog to Gallagher. Sen. McGuire would then turn around and seek election in the new 1st CD, regardless of the special election outcome.

The move adds political risk to McGuire’s personal congressional plan, especially since the special election winner will only serve a few months. Should McGuire lose to Gallagher in the special, the former’s air of invincibility for the new seat might be punctured and he will likely have adjusted some issue positions in his attempt to win in conservative territory that might hurt him when campaigning in the new liberal district.

Thus, his losing might make transitioning into the Democratic 1st District during the regular election more difficult. As a result, the move might give Gallagher or another Republican a better chance against McGuire in the regular election even though they will all compete in what should be a reliably new Democratic district.

Under California special election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot in jungle primary form. Should a contender receive majority support in the first vote, the individual would be elected and immediately take office. If no one receives 50 percent or above, the top two finishers would advance to a runoff election on Aug. 4.

Candidate filing for the special election will conclude on April 9. Currently, the only other candidate to announce for the seat is non-profit organization consultant Audrey Denney (D).

NC-4: Rep. Foushee on the Precipice

On Jan. 31, 2026, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee and Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam participated in a MAPAC-hosted and moderated candidate forum. This will give you a sense of each of the candidate’s positions. (Watch on YouTube)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 25, 2026

House

Two-term North Carolina Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) is in a major fight as she and her opponent engage in political combat during the final campaign days prior to the March 3 primary.

In 2022, Foushee, then a state Senator, defeated Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam by nine percentage points to win a contested eight-person Democratic primary. Foushee would then go onto record an easy general election win in a 4th Congressional District designed to elect a Democrat. In 2022, the seat was open because veteran Rep. David Price (D) retired from elective politics.

Rep. Foushee had an easy first re-election run in 2024, but this year’s Democratic primary has turned hot. Allam, still a member of the Durham County Commission, returned to challenge Rep. Foushee, and though her own campaign has not been flush with campaign cash, several outside groups are spending a combined $1 million to promote Allam for the purpose of unseating Rep. Foushee.

About half of the independent money comes from a pro-Palestinian group entitled “American Priorities.” In 2022, Foushee received strong backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), though so far not to the same degree in this campaign. The American Priorities’ objective is to serve as a counter to AIPAC.

The second major pro-Allam group, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, is the “Leaders We Deserve” organization that deposed Democratic National Committee officer David Hogg founded. This group is active, and will be active, in Democratic primaries with the goal of dislodging Democratic incumbents they view as being part of the political establishment. Combined, the organizations give Allam a 3:1 advantage in outside spending.

Some of the funding coming to help Rep. Foushee is from AI and cryptocurrency interests, but they will have to step up their spending in the last week to propel the incumbent closer to an even footing with the challenger in terms of persuasion expenditures.

A major issue that Allam emphasizes is her opposition to the new AI data center being built in the city of Apex. Allam argues that the facility’s planned energy usage will increase rates relating to water and electricity utilities, and the types of permanent jobs created will be relatively few in number and not targeted to the local populace. Rep. Foushee also has voiced some concern over the plant but in the past has enjoyed strong support from AI interests. Therefore, Allam is attempting to create a clear contrast on this particular issue.

The 4th District of North Carolina lies to the west of the capital city of Raleigh, containing Durham and Orange counties and parts of Chatham and Wake counties. The major population centers are the cities of Durham, Chapel Hill, Apex, and Hillsborough.

The seat is safely Democratic with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 73.0D – 24.8R, so winning the general election for either woman would not be in doubt. The 4th District has a 44.2 percent minority voting age population (VAP), with the dominant Black minority segment comprising 21.7 percent of the district’s VAP. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 4th CD with a 71.8 – 26.5 percent margin even though she lost the statewide vote.

The district has changed since the two women faced each other four years ago. Because of the 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan, 37 percent of the 4th District’s territory is different. The city of Apex, previously mentioned as being the host city for the controversial new data center, is part of the added constituency, which is another reason why Allam is making the plant a major campaign issue and a comparison focal point between she and Rep. Foushee.

As many as three Democratic US House incumbents, including Rep. Foushee, are in competitive races that could result in each losing his or her battle for renomination on March 3. The others are Texas Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch).

Should Foushee and Rep. Green lose next week, the budding activism from some within the Democratic Party who are organizing to elect younger and more aggressive Representatives will get a major national boost. Rep. Johnson, should she lose, would be attributed solely to redistricting.

Texas Incumbents Who Could Lose

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Texas Races

Multiple Republican seats are in jeopardy in the upcoming Texas primary on March 3.

Knocking on the door of the March 3 Texas primary, we see analyses surfacing predicting that more than one Texas congressional incumbent could lose their renomination battles.

The Senate race has attracted a great deal of attention throughout the early part of the 2026 election cycle. Regarding incumbent John Cornyn’s Republican primary status, his fate will not likely be decided on March 3.

The Senator, on the ballot for a fifth term, is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election likely with Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also in the race and making positive strides. It is probable, however, that he will fall short of securing one of the two available runoff ballot positions.

For months, large numbers of polls have shown neither Sen. Cornyn nor AG Paxton coming anywhere near the 50 percent plateau in primary ballot test results. In fact, neither has even seriously approached the 40 percent mark at any time after July. Since then, 30 Texas Senate primary campaign polls have been publicly released.

Typically, when an incumbent is forced into a runoff in those states where securing majority support is necessary to win a party nomination, the challenger prevails in the secondary election because a majority of voters had already forced the incumbent below the required victory vote percentage figure.

A Cornyn-Paxton runoff may be different, however. First, Texas now has a long runoff cycle – from March 4 through May 26 – so much can change in a long campaign duration.

Secondly, Sen. Cornyn enjoys a significant campaign resource advantage as evidenced in that AG Paxton is only moderately advertising at the end of the primary period. He is obviously pooling his lesser resources for the runoff. By holding his money, Paxton indicates that he perceives fundraising will be difficult against Cornyn in a one-on-one situation.

And, finally, Paxton has been scandal-ridden in the past, and those negatives will be wholly revisited in the runoff cycle.

Reports suggest that three US House incumbents could lose their renomination battles with an outside possibility of a fourth.

The new redistricting map has forced incumbents Al Green (D-Houston) and newly elected (Jan. 31 special election) Christian Menefee (D-Houston) into a new 18th District. Though 65 percent of the constituency in the new 18th comes from Green’s 9th CD, the polling overwhelmingly suggests that Rep. Menefee is in prime position to win the Democratic primary and do so without a runoff.

Also on the Democratic side, in Dallas County, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) saw her 32nd District turned into a Republican seat that now stretches into East Texas. Because the new seat heavily favors Republicans, Rep. Johnson decided to seek re-election in the new 33rd District, after Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) chose to retire.

The move looked promising for Rep. Johnson until former Representative and 2024 Democratic US Senate nominee Colin Allred suddenly decided to end his announced 2026 Senate campaign and instead filed for District 33. Polling suggests that Allred’s strong name identification and resource advantage will send him back to the US House of Representatives and relegate Rep. Johnson’s congressional service to one term.

Clearly the most bizarre race involves three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio); he too is in danger of failing to win renomination. In 2024, Gonzales, not a favorite among the hard right faction within his sprawling 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, was forced into a runoff election with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera and he survived by only 354 votes. In the current campaign, not only did Herrera return, but former Congressman Quico Canseco is also in the race.

Rep. Gonzales has been at the forefront of a political storm resulting from a tragic situation where a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, was alleged to be in an extramarital affair with Gonzales and then committed suicide by lighting herself on fire. As the campaign draws to conclusion, Santos-Aviles’ husband is coming forward to confirm his wife’s affair with Gonzales and accuses the Congressman of abusing his power.

Though the challengers have little in the way of campaign funding, the negative publicity and the closeness of his 2024 renomination campaign makes Rep. Gonzales highly endangered.

Some point to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) as being another incumbent on the precipice of defeat. His main opponent is state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) who has a strong conservative following. Rep. Crenshaw dominates the resource phase of the campaign, and though Toth has a support base it is unlikely that he will dethrone the Congressman in this primary battle. With four candidates on the ballot, however, moving to a runoff is possible. This is a race to watch on March 3.

Colorado Joins Redistricting Wars

Colorado Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App interactive map

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 23, 2026

Redistricting

Yet another state is making a redistricting move, but this one is for the future.

A new organization called Coloradans for a Level Playing Field announced this week that it will attempt to qualify a congressional redistricting ballot proposition for the November 2026 ballot. The proponents will encourage the electorate to enact a new map designed to create the exact opposite effect of their stated name.

The outline of the suggested redistricting map would reduce the Republicans to just one of the state’s eight congressional seats, into a 7D-1R split. Currently, the Colorado delegation is split 4D-4R. If the group organizers are successful in qualifying their initiative and the measure passes, the new map would take effect for the 2028 and 2030 election cycles.

The current Colorado Independent Redistricting Commissions’ congressional panel members constructed the current map in 2021. Some consider the Centennial State redistricting process as a model for other places. Citizens are chosen to create maps in accordance with Colorado redistricting statutes, and when pertinent, federal redistricting law.

Once an assigned panel agrees upon and formally passes a map, the plan is automatically sent to the state Supreme Court for approval. Adding the court to the formal procedure has resulted in no filed lawsuits against any of the commission maps because Colorado’s ultimate redistricting authority declared the legality of the plan(s) at the outset.

The Colorado system also features a different group of citizens being chosen to draw individual maps, meaning the plans for Congress, state Senate, state House, and any other body that elects its members through districts.

The fledgling Level Playing Field organization, backed financially by Democratic Party sources, is floating four different proposals, and the leaders say they will soon formulate their final strategy and submit one map to the Secretary of State. Once the proposed ballot language is approved, the group then must recruit 124,238 valid registered voter signatures to qualify the referendum.

The other alternative for approving a proposed referendum is through the legislature and obtaining a required two-thirds votes for passage in each chamber. Democrats, however, are slightly below having a two-thirds majority in both houses, meaning their chances of prevailing at the state capitol are less than favorable.

The released map proposal, if adopted as publicized, would change three Republican districts, those of Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), and Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton) from safely Republican or toss-up seats (the latter in Rep. Evans’ case), into likely Democratic districts.

Ironically, the only Republican member that the Democrat-funded map drawers would concede to a GOP member is the state’s eastern 4th District of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), likely the Level Playing Field leadership’s least favorite incumbent.

Under the proposal most likely to surface as the final map, Rep. Hurd’s district would transform from a 52.6R – 43.3D district according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians into a western Colorado CD that would feature a virtually opposite 51.1D – 46.2R split. The change adds Democrats from Rep. Joe Neguse’s (D-Lafayette) 2nd District that would bring the new 3rd geographically closer to the outer Denver suburbs.

Rep. Crank’s 5th CD would move from a 56.1R – 38.9D partisan lean to one that yields a 52.2D – 45.0R split. The move here would also drive the Colorado Springs-anchored district much closer to Denver, taking Democrats mostly from Rep. Brittany Pettersen’s (D-Lakewood) 7th CD.

Finally, involving perhaps the most politically marginal district in the country, Rep. Evans’ 8th CD located north and east of Denver with a partisan lean of 48.3D – 47.0R, would become decidedly Democratic, brandishing a new 53.0D – 44.1R partisan division.

Finally, the changes would push the Republican factor in Rep. Boebert’s district even higher. Currently, the 4th District partisan lean is 60.3R – 35.9D. The new map increases the Republican figure to 63.3 with a corresponding Democratic benchmark of 34.3. Extra Republicans were added to this district from Rep. Crank’s 5th CD to make the latter seat more Democratic.

The Colorado redistricting initiative process has a long way to go and qualifying a new map for a ballot referendum this year is no certain task. If successful, the new congressional map will be in place for the 2028 and 2030 elections with the Colorado Independent Commissions process returning to draw a new post-census 2032 map that will be designed to last through the ensuing decade.

Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson Faces Attack by Younger Challenger

(Challenger Evan Turnage ad)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 20, 2026

House

As we draw closer to the March primary elections, one Democratic challenger unveiled a new media ad this week aimed at denying renomination to one of his party’s congressional stalwarts.

Evan Turnage, a former congressional staff member to both Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), returned to his native Mississippi to challenge veteran Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton).

Turnage is one of a growing number of younger Democratic candidates opposing elderly veteran US House members and making their length of service a campaign issue. Rep. Thompson, who was initially elected in 1992, is 78 years old.

Turnage turned up the heat against the 17-term incumbent and former chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee with his new television ad (see above). The strategy behind the media tactic is to create a negative image of Rep. Thompson for failing to deliver for the home constituency.

In the ad, which Turnage narrates, Rep. Thompson’s challenger says that he is from “the poorest district in the poorest state in the country.” He then indicates that Mississippi’s 2nd District held that same distinction when Congressman Thompson was first elected, at a time when Turnage was one year old, and that it still remains true today.

The ad continues with film of dilapidated housing and suggesting that the constituency is downtrodden. Turnage emphasizes that Rep. Thompson’s long tenure in Congress has not improved living conditions, and the challenger promises to do better.

In his media release unveiling the ad, Mr. Turnage says that his campaign is making a “six figure buy.” This is interesting because his year-end Federal Election Commission report shows only $53,877 cash-on-hand from just over $65,000 raised for the campaign. It’s possible that he had a strong fundraising month of January, otherwise the media buy will be on the lower end of his promised spectrum.

The Mississippi primary is scheduled for March 10th. Logistics professor Pertis Williams is also a Democratic congressional candidate, so theoretically a runoff election is possible in this race. If no one secures majority support, the top two finishers would advance to an April 7 runoff election.

It is highly unlikely that the votes will break almost evenly with Williams taking enough to deny the leader 50 percent, but this result is mathematically possible. Chances are very strong, however, that the nomination contest will be decided on March 10 and in Thompson’s favor.

The 2nd District lies in Mississippi’s western delta region and is the state’s lone Democratic congressional district. The CD houses 28 counties and parts of two others. The population centers include part of the city of Jackson, Mississippi’s state capital, Greenville along the delta, Yazoo City, and the definitive Civil War battle site of Vicksburg. Geographically, the seat stretches almost from the Tennessee border to just short of Louisiana, and along the western Mississippi border shared with Arkansas and Louisiana.

The population is majority Black, 62.2 percent, and 34.3 percent White. To substantiate Turnage’s claim about the district, the median household income is $43,811 according to the Data USA figures. The district’s poverty rate is 25.9 percent. The household income figure is less than half the national median level of $97,261. The Mississippi median income number is $70,821 and the state continues to rank last in national household income. Therefore, Turnage’s claim that MS-2 is the poorest district in the poorest state is verified.

Including Turnage’s challenge to Rep. Thompson, 13 Democratic incumbents over 70 years of age are seeking re-election and face credible much younger primary challengers. The additional dozen are: Reps. Mike Thompson (D-CA), Doris Matsui (D-CA), Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA), Maxine Waters (D-CA), John Larson (D-CT), David Scott (D-GA), Ed Case (D-HI), Kweisi Mfume (D-MD), Steve Cohen (D-TN), Al Green (D-TX), Sylvia Garcia (D-TX), and Don Beyer (D-VA).

At this point, each of these Democratic incumbents is favored for renomination, but the combined quality of their opponents suggests that the races should be monitored throughout the primary election cycle for potential upset possibilities.