Florida Rep. Wilson to Retire;
Today’s Primary Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 2, 2026

FL-24

Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson

Florida political observers had been anticipating a congressional retirement announcement for several weeks, and yesterday the expectation became reality. Veteran Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) announced that she will not seek a ninth term in the House. Rep. Wilson, age 83, has been absent from Congress for several weeks while recovering from eye surgery.

During her absence from the House, Rep. Wilson had continued to say she would seek re-election but now replies she was only being “politically strategic,” according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog. Wilson explained that her earlier statements were intended to avoid giving map drawers any incentive to dismantle her district during the redistricting process.

Rep. Wilson was first elected to Congress in 2010 after serving 12 years in the state legislature. Since winning her initial federal race, she has averaged 81 percent of the vote in her seven South Florida re-election campaigns, including two cycles in which she ran unopposed.

Even under the new Florida Republican redistricting map, the open 24th District will remain safely Democratic. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, FL‑24 has a partisan lean of 73.0D–26.2R.

There are now 67 open US House seats – 38 from the Republican column and 23 from the Democratic side. An additional six seats were created through various new redistricting maps. Of the 67 openings, however, only 29 members are voluntarily retiring from elective politics (16 Republicans and 13 Democrats).

Today’s Primary Notes

Several late‑breaking stories are emerging just ahead of today’s major primary election day.

First, in Iowa, a surprising poll is charting new data waters. In the open Republican gubernatorial primary, JMC Analytics released their latest Iowa survey (May 27-28; 550 likely Iowa Republican primary voters; live interview), which posts investment executive Zach Lahn to a small 27-24 percent lead over Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City); Lahn may be in position to score an upset tonight.

The only other published poll of the GOP primary came in April from Victory Enterprises (April 14–15; 500 likely Iowa Republican primary voters). That survey showed Rep. Feenstra holding a commanding 41-8 percent lead over Lahn.

The Republican primary winner will then face State Auditor Rob Sand, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The general election promises to be highly competitive. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third full term.

In California, several survey research firms have recently tested the gubernatorial jungle primary. Earlier in the cycle, most polling suggested that two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could advance to the general election. Now, however, there is growing uncertainty about whether Hilton might be edged out, potentially allowing two Democrats to qualify instead.

To recap, California places all candidates on a single primary ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or vote percentage, advance to the general election.

Four polls were conducted between May 26 and 28 by four different research firms. While all show the top three candidates – Hilton, former Health and Human Services Secretary and former California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra, and billionaire Tom Steyer – tightly clustered, there is no clear consensus on which two will advance to the general election. All three consistently fall within each survey’s margin of error.

It is clear the result will be extremely close, and it is possible that weeks could pass before we know definitively which two candidates advance to the general election. California is notoriously slow in counting votes, largely because election officials allow ballots to be received and counted well after Election Day. In fact, the Secretary of State has 36 days to tally and certify all ballots.

Therefore, late‑breaking developments in both Iowa and California suggest that the Governors’ races in these states could produce unpredictable outcomes. The Iowa results will likely be known tonight, but the California counting process is expected to be lengthy.

Primary Preview: NJ, NM, SD

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 1 2026

Our third preview piece ahead of tomorrow’s primaries examines the contests in New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Earlier, we reviewed the full slate of races in California, Iowa, and Montana. A total of 15 primaries will occur this June.

New Jersey

The Garden State features just one top‑tier competitive general‑election contest: the 7th Congressional District, where two‑term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R‑Westfield), who has been absent from Congress for two months due to an unexplained health issue, is poised to face a strong Democratic challenger. The district only slightly favors Republicans; analysts at the Dave’s Redistricting App estimate a 50.9R–46.7D partisan lean.

The primary elections include a Republican Senate contest and 10 contested congressional primaries. As noted earlier, however, only one of these nomination battles is expected to become a truly competitive general election race.

Four Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging Sen. Cory Booker (D), but the GOP primary is merely a secondary storyline. Sen. Booker enters the general election as a strongly positioned incumbent in a state that has consistently favored Democratic candidates.

The first notable primary is in District 2, where four Democrats are competing for the chance to challenge four‑term Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R‑Dennis Township/Atlantic City). The Congressman is now seeking his third election as a Republican after initially winning the seat as a Democrat. Tomorrow’s Democratic victor will likely attract some initial national consideration to determine if Rep. Van Drew has general election vulnerability.

In the 7th District, four Democrats are competing for the opportunity to challenge Rep. Kean. Businesswoman and Air National Guard officer Rebecca Bennett has led in recent polling and is well‑positioned to secure the nomination. Because New Jersey uses a plurality‑vote primary system, finishing first tomorrow is all that matters.

In the northern New Jersey 8th District, two‑term Rep. Rob Menendez (D‑Jersey City) again faces a Democratic primary challenger, though the opposition is not as formidable as the field he confronted in 2024. Rep. Menendez is widely viewed as the clear favorite over former Jersey City Board of Education president Mussab Ali.

In District 11, special‑election winner Analilia Mejia (D‑Glen Ridge/Morristown) faces only minimal opposition in the regular Democratic primary and is not expected to encounter a competitive general election challenge. The seat became open earlier this year after then‑incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) was elected Governor in the November 2025 election.

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D‑Ewing Township/Trenton) is not seeking a seventh term, creating an open seat and prompting a crowded 13‑candidate Democratic primary. The eventual nominee will win the strongly Democratic district in November.

Only two of the 12th District contenders hold elected office: state Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds‑Jackson (D‑Trenton) and Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson. With such a large field, the winning candidate will likely secure only a modest share of the vote, but New Jersey’s plurality primary system means that finishing first is all that matters, regardless of the overall percentage.

New Mexico

With Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D) facing only minimal Democratic primary opposition and no Republican challenger, statewide political attention is centered almost entirely on the open Governor’s race.

Because Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, the open Democratic primary is central to determining her successor. The race has narrowed to a two‑candidate contest between former US Interior Secretary and ex‑ Albuquerque Congresswoman Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. While Haaland enters the primary with notable advantages, political observers still expect a relatively competitive finish.

Three Republicans are competing for the party’s gubernatorial nomination, with Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull and former New Mexico Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez viewed as the leading contenders. Whoever emerges from the primary is expected to face a difficult campaign path in the general election, given the state’s Democratic voting history.

Only one of New Mexico’s congressional races is expected to be competitive in the general election: the southern 2nd District. Here, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D‑Las Cruces) is seeking a third term in what is shaping up to be a closely watched contest.

Retired police officer Greg Cunningham is unopposed for the Republican nomination, setting up a potentially high‑profile national race. While Vasquez enters the cycle with some clear advantages, the district has a recent history of competitive outcomes, making it a race to watch this fall.

South Dakota

The open Republican gubernatorial campaign is shaping up to be a tight contest. Gov. Larry Rhoden assumed the state’s top office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then‑Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to accept a federal appointment. At‑large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) immediately announced a primary challenge to Gov. Rhoden. Businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) are also running, and each has a credible base of support.

South Dakota is a runoff state, and there is a real possibility that none of the four candidates will reach the 35 percent threshold needed to clinch the Republican nomination outright. If a runoff is required, it will be held on June 28.

Separate recent polls have individually placed three of the four candidates in first place, leaving tomorrow’s outcome uncertain. The eventual Republican nominee, however, is strongly positioned to win the Governorship in November, given the state’s partisan landscape.

In the open at‑large House race, multi‑term Attorney General Marty Jackley is strongly positioned to win the Republican primary and advance to November as the party’s nominee. Given the state’s voting history, he enters the general election cycle as the prohibitive favorite in the contest for South Dakota’s lone US House seat.

Iowa and Montana Primary Previews

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 29, 20206

Today, we continue our series of June 2nd primary previews. We begin with a look at the very busy Iowa primary followed with Montana developments. On Monday, we wrap up with the New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primary previews.

Iowa

The Iowa primary features several tightly contested races. The Hawkeye State is poised to be one of the most influential battlegrounds in shaping the national landscape of the 2026 midterm cycle. Iowa will see several major offices open in 2026: US Senate, Governor, and two US House seats. All are expected to be competitive in the general election.

Governor

Democrats are enthusiastic about their gubernatorial nominee. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat currently holding statewide office, is expected to be well funded as the party attempts to reclaim the governorship; a post Republicans have held since 2011.

As Lieutenant Governor, Kim Reynolds (R) ascended to the state’s top office in 2017 following Gov. Terry Branstad’s (R) resignation to become US Ambassador to China in the first Trump Administration. She was then elected Governor in her own right in 2018 and 2022. Earlier this year, she announced that she would not seek a third full term.

Democratic leaders and strategists believe not only can Sand win the general election, but they feel he can also drive turnout to help sweep other Democrats into office.

Sand’s likely general‑election opponent is 4th District Rep. Randy Feenstra (R–Hull/Sioux City). First elected in 2020 after defeating then‑Rep. Steve King in the Republican primary, Rep. Feenstra has since faced minimal opposition in his re‑election campaigns and has consistently performed well as a candidate. The general election is expected to be highly competitive.

Senate

When Sen. Joni Ernst (R) announced she would not seek a third Senate term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) immediately entered the race. President Trump, Gov. Reynolds, and the broader Republican establishment quickly rallied behind her, making her the prohibitive favorite for the party’s nomination.

Democrats have a primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Iowa City) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). Sen. Wahls opened with an early lead, but with Democratic leaders now lining up almost uniformly behind Turek, the party electorate – and recent polling – has clearly shifted in his direction. This sets the stage for what is expected to be a strongly contested Hinson-Turek general election.

House

All four of Iowa’s US House seats feature notable activity this cycle. In the 1st District, a second rematch between Rep. Mariannette Miller‑Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) appears likely. Both face only minor opposition in Tuesday’s primary and are expected to advance to the general election.

The Republican primary will be worth watching, however. In 2024, Rep. Miller‑Meeks recorded only 56 percent of the GOP primary vote against advertising executive David Pautsch, who ran a no‑spending campaign. Pautsch is back for another attempt, and this time he is making a slightly more concerted effort to compete.

Rep. Miller‑Meeks’ vote share will be an important number to watch. A result below 65 percent would likely signal further general‑election vulnerability for the incumbent. In 2024, she defeated Bohannan by just 799 votes – the third‑closest US House race in the country.

Rep. Hinson’s open 2nd District features primaries in both parties, though each has a clear favorite heading into Tuesday. For Republicans, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell is the strong frontrunner over state Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Linn County). On the Democratic side, state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) is expected to win her party’s nomination.

The general election is expected to be competitive, but with a partisan lean favoring Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App: 51.4R – 45.3D), Mitchell would enter November with a measurable advantage.

The Des Moines-anchored 3rd District is the most competitive congressional seat in the state (DRA partisan lean: 49.8R–47.0D). Both nominations are already set, as each party’s primary is uncontested. Rep. Zach Nunn (R–Bondurant) will be defending the seat for the second time after unseating an incumbent in 2022.

Democrats will field state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) as their nominee. The general election is expected to be highly competitive, and the race effectively becomes a national contest beginning Wednesday.

The western 4th District is open because Rep. Feenstra is running for Governor. The Republican nominee will be Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan who is surprisingly unopposed for the GOP nomination in this strongly Republican congressional district.

Democrats have three candidates vying for the IA-4 party nomination. The frontrunner is former state Rep. Dave Dawson, but he will be a decided general election underdog against McGowan.

Montana

The Treasure State was expected to have a quiet general election with all federal incumbents seeking re‑election. Just before the candidate filing period closed, however, the landscape changed dramatically.

Senate

Just minutes before the March 4 candidate filing deadline expired, Sen. Steve Daines (R) – who had filed for re‑election earlier in the month – abruptly withdrew from the race. Accompanying him to the Secretary of State’s office was former US Attorney Kurt Alme (R), who then filed to run for the Senate.

The Daines hand‑off appears to have worked, as only minor candidates will appear on the ballot against Alme in Tuesday’s Republican primary. Five Democrats filed for the seat, with former state Rep. Reilly Neill emerging as the strongest contender from that field.

The most competitive Senate opponent for Alme, however, isn’t a Democrat. Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, running as an Independent, is likely the strongest non‑Republican contender. The presence of a Democratic nominee, though, creates a more favorable landscape for Alme. If the race becomes highly competitive, he could prevail with a simple plurality by consolidating Republican support while the anti‑GOP vote split between two candidates.

House

Before Sen. Daines withdrew and effectively selected his preferred successor, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) had already announced that he would not seek re‑election, doing so just days before the filing deadline. He simultaneously endorsed his chosen successor, radio talk‑show host Aaron Flint (R).

In this case, enough time remained for additional candidates to file. Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Senator and past congressional candidate Al Olszewski both quickly filed to compete in the Republican primary.

The Democrats have assembled a notably credible field, featuring 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, Montana Firefighters Union chief of staff Matt Rains, well‑known Smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag, and education consultant Russell Cleveland as contenders for the party’s nomination.

With a credible Democratic nominee and a narrowly divided district (DRA partisan lean: 50.7R–46.9D), western Montana is poised for a hard‑fought general election contest.

In the eastern 2nd District, freshman Rep. Troy Downing (R-Helena) is unopposed for re-election. The Congressman will also be a prohibitive favorite in the general election from a district that President Trump carried with a commanding 63.2 – 33.6 percent margin in 2024.

California Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 28, 2026

Today, our state reviews of the upcoming June 2 primary elections begin. Voters in six states will finish casting their ballots on Tuesday, and we begin the analysis series with the California qualifying election.

In the Golden State, all candidates are on the same initial June election ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentages attained, advance to the general election.

Holding partisan primaries are the states of Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Tomorrow, we look at the Iowa and Montana nomination elections, and Monday we conclude with New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Governor

The open California Governor’s race has been in a state of flux almost since the beginning. With 60 candidates on the ballot, it appeared for a time that Republicans had a chance to clinch the two general election ballot positions because the dominant Democratic vote appeared to be split among so many candidates. Such, however, is no longer the case because Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) has fallen off the pace.

The most recent polling suggests that former Fox News host Steve Hilton is the favorite to capture the first general election ballot position, while the second position looks to be a toss up between former Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) and billionaire Tom Steyer (D).

The party leadership began to coalesce around Becerra after former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) was forced out of the race, but they have failed to establish him as the clear leader or second-place candidate. Steyer, spending what could be as much as $200 million of his own money on the campaign, is a viable contender.

Whichever Democrat captures second position will automatically become the favorite to win the general election in heavily Democratic California. The only scenario where a Republican could win a statewide office here is if two Republicans would clinch the pair of general election ballot positions.

CA-1

The 1st District election is very complicated. In fact, there are two 1st Districts and two elections on June 2. The first election comes in the former 1st District and is a special vote to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) for the balance of the current term.

The second election is the regular jungle primary in a reconfigured Democratic 1st District. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored in the special election. If he receives majority support, he will take the seat immediately and serve until the end of the current Congress.

In the regular primary, state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) is favored to finish first and Gallagher, second. Both will advance to the general election where McGuire will be favored in a district that he drew himself as the then-President of the California Senate.

CA-3 & 6

Redistricting has caused Reps. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) and Kevin Kiley (NPP-Rocklin) to trade districts. Rep. Bera will now be favored for re-election in District 3, while Rep. Kiley, now running under the No Party Preference label as opposed to Republican, will attempt to win re-election in new District 6.

Both seats are now Democratic under the new redistricting map, so Rep. Kiley becomes a decided underdog to a Democrat who will likely finish first, probably former state Sen. Richard Pan.

CA-7

The Sacramento-anchored 7th District features veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D) and Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D). This is one of the races around the country where a younger Democrat is challenging an elderly incumbent. Both women are expected to advance into the general election for a double-Democratic runoff.

Rep. Matsui was elected in a March 2005 special election after her husband, Rep. Bob Matsui (D), passed away. The Congressman was serving his 14th term in the House when he died suddenly on New Year’s Day in 2005. Together, the Matsui’s have held the congressional seat consecutively since 1979.

CA-11

The battle to succeed former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) is likely to yield a double-Democratic runoff. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) is expected to secure the first general election ballot position.

Earlier, it appeared that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) initial campaign manager, Saikat Chakrabarti (D), was in position to secure second place, but a Pelosi endorsement of San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) has helped propel her into second position according to the most recent polling data.

Irrespective of which of the three clinch the two general election positions, we will see a double-Democrat November election.

CA-13

Freshman Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) and former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) are expected to advance into the general election in a revamped 13th District. The seat is slightly more Democratic but will be competitive in November.

CA-14

State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) is expected to succeed resigned Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore). A special election to fill the balance of the term will be held on June 16. Sen. Wahab is expected to secure majority support to win the contest outright. Tuesday’s primary will send her and possibly another Democrat into the regular general election. Sen. Wahab faces eight opponents in the regular election.

CA-22

The 22nd District is the most Democratic seat in the nation that sends a Republican, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford), to the US House. Ironically, the 22nd is slightly more Republican after redistricting.

Rep. Valadao will secure one of the general election ballot positions on Tuesday and face either state Assemblywoman and physician Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield) or Visalia School Board Trustee and college professor Randy Villegas (D).

CA-26

Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village) is retiring, and state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) is her likely successor. Four Republicans and three Democrats are vying for the second general election position.

CA-38

The new 38th District is an open seat created in the new redistricting plan. The winner will be Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) who is a lock to place first in both Tuesday’s qualifying election and in November.

CA-40

The new 40th CD is one of just four Republican seats designed in the new California redistricting map. Two Republican incumbents are competing for the seat, Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). A third viable candidate is contemporary art gallery owner Esther Kim-Varet (D). Four other Democrats and a No Party Preference candidate are also on the ballot.

One of the two incumbents will eventually win the seat, but it is a question as to whether both Reps. Calvert and Kim advance to the general election. Rep. Calvert represents more of the new district and leads in the latest polling, but Rep. Kim has more financial resources.

CA-45

Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) is on the ballot for a second term. He was an upset winner against then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in 2024. When the former Congresswoman declined to seek a rematch, five Republicans, including three local Orange County officials, jumped into the race. Expect this to be a competitive general election irrespective of which Republican secures the second ballot position on Tuesday.

CA-48

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is retiring, and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is the likely first place finisher in a district that only slightly tips to the Democrats under the new redistricting plan.

Nine Democrats are competing for the seat, and it is possible that the vote could be split to the point of allowing Republican businessman Kevin O’Neill to slip into second position. If one of the Democrats advances against Supervisor Desmond, the result will be a competitive general election.

Texas: Cornyn Defeated Soundly;
Other Runoff Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) suffered a crushing defeat yesterday in the Texas Republican runoff election.

Early vote totals initially suggested a favorable runoff turnout model for the Senator, but that expectation ultimately proved unfounded as Attorney General Ken Paxton convincingly secured the party’s nomination. Paxton, who held a lead beyond the polling margin of error in the campaign’s final weeks, appears poised to finish the runoff with a support figure exceeding 60 percent.

Clearly, Sen. Cornyn’s failure to win renomination stemmed from losing touch with the Republican base and allowing himself to be cast as a centrist incumbent – even though, according to his own messaging, he voted with President Trump 95 percent of the time.

Now Paxton advances to the general election, where he will face state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) in a contest that will feature sharp contrasts. The Texas race is expected to be both hard‑fought and expensive, with Democrats focusing their attacks on Paxton’s character and Republicans targeting Talarico’s more extreme – and at times unusual – issue positions, particularly those relating to Christianity.

Cornyn is now the second Senate incumbent to lose a renomination bid in the early 2026 cycle, joining Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who was defeated in his May 16th primary while seeking a third term. In total, there are now 13 open US Senate seats among the 35 contests up for election this cycle.

House

Sen. Cornyn was not the only veteran incumbent to fall last night. In the Houston-anchored 18th Congressional District, 11‑term Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who gained national attention after shaking his walking cane at President Trump during a televised address and being escorted from the House chamber, also lost in a landslide.

Rep. Green was paired in the 18th District under the new redistricting plan with congressional newcomer Christian Menefee (D-Houston). Rep. Menefee had previously won a differently configured version of the 18th District in a November special election to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D).

What makes Rep. Menefee’s victory so striking is that he previously represented only 26 percent of the newly drawn 18th District. Despite that limited geographic base, he defeated Rep. Green with a projected 68 percent of the vote. Rep. Menefee now heads into the general election as a heavy favorite and will win comfortably.

A freshman House incumbent also won’t be returning to Congress next year. In Dallas, Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) lost her renomination bid to former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred. After initially announcing plans for another Senate run, Allred unexpectedly reversed course as the filing deadline approached and declared his intention to instead pursue a House comeback.

Allred’s decision to enter the 33rd District Democratic primary – after incumbent Marc Veasey (D) chose not to seek re‑election when his Fort Worth power base was removed from the redrawn district – proved to be a well‑timed move. Yesterday, he defeated Rep. Johnson by a 55-45 percent margin and now will have an easy run in the general election.

Rep. Johnson was elected to the previous 32nd District in 2024. The new redistricting plan shifted the seat into Republican territory, making District 33 her most viable option for re‑election. Rep. Allred, however, had previously represented a much larger share of the newly drawn 33rd than Rep. Johnson, and the absence of a more favorable district left her with no realistic path to continue in Congress, limiting her tenure to a single term.

The 33rd District now becomes an open seat for the general election, marking the 66th open US House seat nationwide and the 13th in Texas.

Another US House incumbent lost his primary, though Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) was not seeking re‑election to Congress. Instead, he pursued the open state Attorney General’s office but fell to state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston) yesterday, 55-45 percent.

No surprises emerged in the remaining runoffs. Consistent with primary results across the country so far, President Trump’s endorsed candidates again routinely prevailed.

In the newly created Harris County-based 9th Congressional District, investment banker and Army veteran Alexandra “Alex” Mealer, another Trump endorsed candidate, easily won the Republican runoff over state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R–Deer Park), who Gov. Greg Abbott supported. Though votes remain to be counted, Mealer is currently just under 69 percent of the vote.

Moving to the Lubbock anchored 19th CD, as expected, agribusinessman Tom Sell defeated conservative activist Abraham Enriquez, who Gov. Abbott endorsed, by a lopsided 64-36 percent margin. Sell took more than 40 percent of the vote in the primary, so his runoff victory came as no surprise.

In the newly drawn 35th District, which stretches from San Antonio halfway to Corpus Christi, another Trump‑versus‑Abbott proxy contest broke in the President’s favor. Businessman Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), defeated state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) by nearly a 60-40 percent margin.

For the Democrats, as expected, Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia won the party’s runoff with more than 62 percent of the vote, defeating therapist Maureen Galindo, who had previously made controversial and bigoted public statements. The general election is likely to be competitive, though the newly drawn district leans at least somewhat in the Republicans’ favor.

Returning to Harris County, in the 38th District that Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) risked to run for the Senate, the expected outcome materialized. Trump‑endorsed financial advisor Jon Bonck easily won the Republican runoff over businesswoman and pilot Shelly deZevallos, taking 65 percent of the vote.

Bonck had secured roughly 47 percent in the primary, leaving little doubt about the runoff result. The 38th District is safely Republican, positioning Bonck to join the incoming freshman class in Washington early next year.

Texas Runoffs; 17 Decided Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 26, 2026

While the highly publicized Texas Republican primary campaign between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will be settled today, 16 US House runoffs will also be decided, including six major contests.

President Trump may have helped tilt the race in Paxton’s favor, but the early vote turnout model seems to favor Sen. Cornyn.

For US Reps. Nathaniel Moran (R-Whitehouse/Tyler), Lance Gooden (R-Terrell), Lizzie Fletcher (D-Houston), Randy Weber (R-Friendswood/Galveston), Veronica Escobar (D-El Paso), Pete Sessions (R-Waco), Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving), and Greg Casar (D-Austin), along with open seat contenders Frederick Haynes (D-Dallas) and Jace Yarborough (R-Rockwall), today’s results will determine their general election opponents.

All eight incumbents, as well as Pastor Haynes and Yarborough, enter the fall campaign as prohibitive favorites.

Six competitive House runoff results tonight will likely determine the districts’ next US Representative. The half‑dozen include open CD-9, created under the new 2026 redistricting plan; CD‑18, featuring the incumbent pairing between Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee; and Lubbock‑based District 19, where agribusinessman Tom Sell faces conservative activist Abraham Enriquez.

Turning to the Dallas Metroplex, the CD‑33 runoff features freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch) facing former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred. Farther south along I‑35, the new redistricting‑created 35th District-anchored in San Antonio will also be decided tonight; as will the Houston open seat that Rep. Wesley Hunt (R‑Houston) risked to pursue a Senate bid.

TX-9

The newly created east Harris County-anchored 9th District is designed to elect a Republican, which is why today’s runoff will likely determine the general election winner. The two Republican candidates are investment banker and Army veteran Alexandra “Alex” Mealer, who President Trump endorses, and state Rep. Briscoe Caine (R-Deer Park), who Gov. Greg Abbott supports.

Mealer finished first in the primary with 35.8 percent, ahead of Rep. Cain’s 31.2 percent. The runoff is again expected to be close, particularly given that runoff turnout is typically lower than in the primary. The winner will face Democratic nominee Letty Gutierrez, a lobbyist and former Houston City Council staff member. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App analysis, the new 9th District carries a 51.6R–46.6D partisan lean.

TX-18

The new Houston-anchored, safely Democratic 18th District pairs veteran Rep. Al Green with special election winner Christian Menefee in a Democratic runoff that will determine which of the two members will continue his congressional career. In the primary, Menefee, despite representing only 26 percent of the newly drawn district, edged Rep. Green 46.0 to 44.2 percent. As with all runoffs, the candidate who most effectively turns out his voter base is likely to prevail.

TX-19

Agribusinessman Tom Sell came very close to winning the Republican nomination outright on March 3. He is widely expected to seal the nomination tonight. In the primary, he finished first with 40.4 percent of the vote. Because the margin between second and third place was only 193 votes, it took several weeks to determine that Abraham Enriquez had qualified for the runoff.

The closeness of the primary is of little consequence because Sell is expected to easily win tonight. With a 72.4R – 25.4D partisan lean, he will also enter the general election as the prohibitive favorite.

TX-33

The 33rd District contest is another Democratic runoff featuring candidates with prior electoral success. Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson previously represented the 32nd District, which was converted to a Republican seat during redistricting. She now faces former Rep. Colin Allred, who entered the race after withdrawing from the Senate campaign.

In the primary, Allred finished first with a substantial 44.0 to 33.2 percent margin. He also reported an approximate $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage through the May 6 financial disclosure deadline. Tonight’s winner secures the seat in November. The DRA partisan lean for the newly configured 33rd CD, now fully contained within Dallas County, is 70.9D – 26.7R.

TX-35

Texas’s new 35th CD is another product of the 2026 redistricting plan. The seat covers a large portion of the southeastern San Antonio suburbs and extends roughly halfway toward Corpus Christi. The district’s DRA partisan lean is 50.9R to 46.7D, indicating a Republican advantage but before an electorate that has the potential of becoming competitive in November.

Both parties are locked in runoffs tonight. The Republicans feature state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) battling businessman Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen). This is another race that pits a President Trump-endorsed candidate (De La Cruz) against one who Gov. Abbott supports (Lujan).

On the Democratic side, Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia has support from party leadership as he faces former San Antonio City Council candidate Maureen Galindo, who has reportedly expressed anti‑Semitic views. Outside organizations have been “attacking” Galindo with messages aimed at appealing to and energizing far‑left voters. Democratic officials argue these ads are being funded by Republican‑aligned groups attempting to boost Galindo over Garcia in the primary.

Whoever emerges from both party runoffs tonight will set up an especially interesting general election.

TX-38

As in TX‑19, the outcome of this runoff appears largely pre-determined. Competing in the Republican contest to succeed departing Rep. Wesley Hunt in this safely Republican district (DRA partisan lean: 60.5R to 37.4D) are mortgage broker Jon Bonck and businesswoman Shelly deZevallos. Bonck led the initial primary with a 46.8 to 18.9 percent margin – just about three points short of securing the nomination outright.

Unlike the TX‑32 primary, where the challenger conceded before the runoff, deZevallos pushed this contest into a second round. While the race is still competitive, most indicators point toward a Bonck victory, though deZevallos has had sufficient resources to remain viable. Regardless of tonight’s outcome, the eventual Republican nominee is expected to hold this safely GOP seat in November.

Memorial Day 2026

Honor. Remember. Never Forget. Always.

At EllisInsight, we acknowledge the true purpose of Memorial Day – to honor and remember the men and women of the United States Armed Forces who died in military service to the country. It is specifically a day of remembrance for the fallen – those who made the ultimate sacrifice in war and combat operations.

We remember.

Another Incumbent in Danger

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 22, 2026

US House

Second-term Rep. Dan Goldman (D-New York City)

We have already seen three incumbents lose renomination in the 2026 primary season, and a new poll suggests that another may be in serious trouble.

According to a new Emerson College survey May 16-17; 450 likely NY-10 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques; part of a three-district survey project), second-term Rep. Dan Goldman (D-New York City) could join Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) in the growing group of incumbents failing to secure renomination.

The EC poll of New York’s 10th Congressional District, which covers lower Manhattan’s west side and then crosses the harbor to capture part of Brooklyn, finds former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander posting a commanding 57-23 percent lead over the incumbent as the candidates head toward New York’s June 23 Democratic primary.

The Emerson poll is the second survey showing the Congressman trailing Lander, who draws support from the party’s far left wing, including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA), along with the Democratic Socialists of America, even though Rep. Goldman is firmly established on the left himself and a vocal congressional critic of President Trump.

Schoen Cooperman Research released its survey in early May (May 1–4; 465 likely NY‑10 Democratic primary voters), projecting a 47-42 percent lead for Lander, well below the Emerson margin but still a challenger advantage.

Though the incumbent defeats have so far occurred within the Republican Party, there are roughly a dozen serious or reasonably serious Democratic primary challenges emerging across the country. Almost all feature younger challengers taking on older incumbents and calling for a “new generation of leadership.”

The Goldman-Lander campaign does not fit that description, and while the race might be framed as an ideological battle, the two candidates’ issue positions do not widely differ. Therefore, seeing such a large margin in the Emerson poll – with the incumbent on the short end – is particularly surprising. The arguments being made to justify replacing Rep. Goldman will be interesting to monitor.

New York’s 10th District was created as an open seat in the 2021 redistricting process. This occurred because the new map paired Rep. Jerrold Nadler, from his former 10th District, with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, from her 12th District. As a result, a new 10th District was drawn with Nadler and Maloney facing each other in the new 12th – a contest that Rep. Nadler ultimately won.

In the new NY-10, a total of nine 2022 Democratic candidates competed for the party nomination that Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss family fortune, ultimately won with just 26 percent of the vote under New York’s plurality primary system.

Among the contenders he defeated were, in order of finish, state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, former Westchester County Congressman Mondaire Jones, NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, state Assemblywoman Jo Anne Simon, Elizabeth Holtzman — a former Congresswoman, 1980 US Senate nominee, ex-Kings County District Attorney, and, like Lander, a NYC Comptroller — and even former Mayor Bill de Blasio, who dropped out after early polls showed he had no viable path to victory.

The 10th District is solidly Democratic. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, NY-10 has a partisan lean of 86.3D – 10.8R. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the district over Donald Trump by a wide 79-19 percent margin. As a result, Rep. Goldman’s primary obstacle to re-election is the Democratic primary itself.

Brad Lander is a former multi‑term NYC Councilman who won the Comptroller’s office in 2021 but risked the position last year in an unsuccessful run for Mayor. Although he opposed Zohran Mamdani in that race, the two formed an endorsing alliance under the Ranked Choice Voting system used in the city’s elections. Each urged his supporters to rank the other as their second choice on the RCV ballot.

In the congressional race, Lander has Mayor Mamdani’s endorsement and is drawing substantial support from his core coalition.

Aside from whatever advantage Rep. Goldman may gain from incumbency, which may not amount to much in the current political climate, his primary strength is financial. The final weeks of the campaign will be decisive, but the incumbent appears to face an unusually steep obstacle with little time remaining. As of now, Rep. Goldman seems to have long odds for success.

Texas Senate Race: Not So Fast

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 21, 2026

Senate

The Texas Senate Republican runoff is Tuesday, and President Trump’s endorsement this week of Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn has certainly drawn even more attention to this race. But is it the clinching blow? Several points suggest otherwise.

To recap, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the March 3 primary with a 41-40 percent edge over AG Paxton. The incumbent performed well in the state’s major population centers while Paxton handily carried most of the Texas rural regions with the notable exceptions of the Panhandle and South Texas.

As we have seen recently with the defeats of Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, the President has been on a strong political run in helping his endorsed candidates secure victories.

There are several reasons why the Texas situation differs from the previously mentioned campaigns. In both the Cassidy and Massie races, President Trump’s involvement centered on Republican officeholders who had openly opposed him. Trump sought to defeat Sen. Cassidy because of his vote to convict during the 2021 impeachment proceedings.

Rep. Massie, meanwhile, had long been a member who frequently broke with the President’s proposals and was widely viewed as the least loyal House Republican in terms of supporting Trump’s policy agenda.

The Texas situation is different. First, the President is not attacking Cornyn as an enemy; in fact, for a time he appeared inclined to endorse the Senator. This, even though Paxton has been a loyal Trump supporter since the very beginning of the President’s political rise in 2016.

Secondly, both four‑term Sen. Cornyn, previously elected as state Attorney General and to the Texas Supreme Court, and AG Paxton, who has won three statewide general elections and two competitive primaries, are already very well known to Texas Republican primary voters. As a result, the extent to which a last‑minute presidential endorsement can sway or energize voters on Paxton’s behalf is open to question.

Third, it’s possible the President is influenced with the latest polls because the most recent May research studies have produced results suggesting the closing trends were moving away from the incumbent.

Peak Insights (May 2-5; 800 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) found Cornyn and Paxton virtually tied with a 47-46 percent split in the Senator’s favor. The Remington Research Group and the Global Strategy Group, the latter a Democratic pollster, detected a much different result slightly later in the month. The RRG data (May 3-5; 1,810 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) reported Paxton leading 47-36 percent, while GSG (May 6-11; 600 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) saw an even wider 52-40 percent Paxton advantage.

If polls factored into the President’s endorsement, the decision may have been hasty. In the primary, the six surveys conducted closest to Election Day showed Paxton leading by an average of seven percentage points. Yet Cornyn ultimately prevailed by a single point, indicating an eight‑point average polling miss.

Additionally, polling for a runoff is even more challenging than polling for a primary. Turnout in a Texas secondary election is typically one‑third to one‑half lower than in the primary, making accurate measurement even more difficult and the results less certain.

Furthermore, turnout tends to be higher in metro areas than in rural communities, a dynamic that could help Cornyn since he did well in the cities on March 3.

While the state does not have a mass vote‑by‑mail program, it does allow in‑person early voting for roughly a month before Election Day in regular elections and over a five‑day period for runoffs. According to the Target Early Target Smart organization, which tracks early voting, three‑quarters of the 2024 Texas general‑election vote was cast before Election Day.

With early voting ending on Friday, the Trump endorsement may have less impact because a substantial share of ballots are already cast.

The Texas Senate race remains one of the more compelling contests of the 2026 election cycle and will continue to draw significant attention through the general election, regardless of Tuesday’s Republican runoff result.

While the Trump endorsement has proven golden for many Republicans seeking a party nomination, the factors outlined above suggest the outcome on May 26 could be different. Once again, significant political attention will soon be focused on the Lone Star State.

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R)

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), probably the President’s top Republican US House nemesis, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. The vote split was 55-45 percent in Gallrein’s favor and capped a victory week for the President.

Trump’s endorsed candidates defeated two of his Republican targets in Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Massie, and the Republicans recorded several redistricting legislative and judicial victories that improves the party’s position of holding their small US House majority.

Alabama

As expected, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) and ex-Sen. Doug Jones (D) both easily won their respective gubernatorial primaries last night. The result precludes a rematch of the 2020 US Senate campaign in which Tuberville recorded a 60-40 percent victory.

In the Senate race, also as expected, Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) secured the first runoff position while Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson are locked in a tight battle for the second Republican runoff slot. It may take several days to determine the second place finisher.

For the Democrats, attorney Everett Wess and businessman Dakarai Larriett will advance to the second round. The Alabama Senate runoff elections are scheduled for June 16.

All US House incumbents were easily renominated and will become prohibitive favorites in the general election.

Georgia

With Gov. Brian Kemp term‑limited, both parties held open contests to choose their 2026 gubernatorial nominees. In the Republican primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and businessman Rick Jackson secured the two runoff positions and will advance to the June 16 second round.

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the party nomination outright, attracting 56 percent against six opponents. She now advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) has raised more money than any other US candidate and was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley qualified for the runoff. Dooley edged Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) in a surprise finish. The two Republicans will now battle in the June 16 runoff election for the right to oppose Sen. Ossoff in November.

Turning to the Georgia House races, Jim Kingston, son of former Rep. Jack Kingston (R), claimed the open 1st District Republican nomination outright with a 52 percent victory over five candidates. The primary victory virtually assures Kingston of election in November.

In open District 10, state Rep. Houston Gaines (R-Athens) was an easy Republican primary winner, capturing 67 percent against two opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Collins in November.

The race to replace retiring 11th District Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville) will go to a runoff. Surgeon and former congressional candidate John Cowan and Loudermilk chief of staff Rob Adkerson will advance to the second round. Finishing third in an upset result is Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore who was favored as a runoff participant. The June 16 Republican runoff winner will claim the seat in November.

In solidly Democratic District 13, state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won her party nomination outright with a 56 percent of the vote against five opponents. She is not a candidate in the special election to directly replace the late Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) but will take the seat in the next Congress with a general election victory. The special election is scheduled for July 28. The winner will serve only to the end of the current Congress before yielding to Clark.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R) recorded a 64 percent victory over three Republican primary opponents on his way to winning a fourth term. Realtor David Roth won the Democratic primary but will be a definitive underdog to Sen. Risch in November.

Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) were easy winners in their respective Republican primaries.

Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, topped eight minor Republican challengers with 60 percent of the vote and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into the November election against Terri Pickens, the 2022 Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee.

Kentucky

In addition to the Massie defeat, Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) easily secured the Republican Senate nomination with a solid 60 percent victory over former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and nine others.

For the Democrats, former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker defeated 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath with a 47-36 percent victory margin despite being outspent. Rep. Barr appears as a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

In Rep. Barr’s open 6th District, former state Senator and 2019 Lieutenant Governor nominee Ralph Alverado, who left the state to become Tennessee’s State Health Commissioner before returning, won the Republican nomination with 56 percent over four opponents. He will face Democratic winner Zach Dembo, an attorney and Navy veteran. This general election campaign could turn competitive, though Alvarado begins the campaign as the November favorite.

The four other congressional incumbents seeking renomination all won easily.

Oregon

All Beaver State incumbents seeking renomination were easy winners last night. The Governor’s race will be a rematch from 2022 because state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby) decisively won her GOP primary opposite state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 gubernatorial nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley. Drazan will again square off with Gov. Tina Kotek (D) in the general election.

Pennsylvania

In the Governor’s race, both incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) were unopposed for their party’s nomination. The Governor is favored to win a second term.

The electorates in three competitive Republican House districts chose their Democratic nominees last night, and all three races could prove pivotal in determining control of the chamber in the general election. All Pennsylvania Republican House members were unopposed for renomination.

In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general election campaign in this politically competitive district. State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks overcame former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure to secure the Democratic nomination last night. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.

To the north in the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. This race is expected to be another highly competitive general‑election contest.

In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held Rep. Perry to a 51-49 percent victory two years ago scored a 67 percent victory over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas meaning the November rematch is set.

Turning to the southeastern sector, as expected, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie won the Democratic primary and will now challenge five-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (D-Levittown) in one of just three districts nationally that voted for Kamala Harris and sent a Republican to the US House.

In the 3rd District, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia) defeated state Sen. Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia) and surgeon Ala Stanford with 44 percent of the vote. Rabb will succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) in the general election.