Primary Preview:
Missouri, Virginia, and Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

In addition to the Michigan primary, which we covered extensively yesterday, three other states, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, are holding primaries today. Only Virginia features a statewide contest, and even that race is headed for a non‑competitive general election.

>Missouri

The state’s eight congressional campaigns lead the 2026 ballot in the Show Me State. The major primary battles are occurring in Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D‑Kansas City) newly redrawn 5th District and the open 6th District, where Republican voters will choose a successor to retiring Rep. Sam Graves (R‑Tarkio). Additionally, freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D‑St. Louis) faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2024, former US Rep. Cori Bush.

In the St. Louis-anchored 1st District, Rep. Bell is again locked in a tough campaign with former Rep. Bush. Their 2024 contest was bitter, and this year’s race is no different. Bush continues to portray Rep. Bell as aligned with the establishment and too close to Republicans, though the Congressman’s voting record does not support such a claim.

Rep. Bell holds a 3:1 fundraising advantage and is again expected to prevail. The 1st District is now the state’s lone Democratic seat, and it will remain under the party’s control regardless of who wins tonight’s nomination.

In the St. Louis suburban 2nd District, veteran US Rep. Ann Wagner (R‑Ballwin) and Democratic retired Army officer Fred Wellman both appear to be facing only minor opposition for their respective nominations. With a partisan lean of 54.5R – 43.2D (Dave’s Redistricting App), Rep. Wagner has the inside track for November, though Democrats are still expected to invest heavily to support Wellman.

The newly drawn 5th Congressional District was the focal point of Missouri’s 2026 redistricting plan. Its partisan lean shifts from 60.8D – 35.9R to 56.6R – 41.1D, making a Republican victory in November highly likely and placing Rep. Cleaver at serious political risk. This seat is central to GOP hopes of protecting their slim House majority. Six Republicans are competing for the nomination, and three appear viable.

Rep. Graves is retiring after 26 years in Congress and eight years in the Missouri legislature. Tonight’s GOP primary will determine his successor. He has endorsed radio talk show host Chris Stigall, one of five Republicans on the ballot. Stigall’s strongest competitors are Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett and businessman Nathanael Schultz.

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for what he says will be the final time. When announcing his 2026 re‑election bid, Warner stated that he intends to retire when the next term ends in early 2033. He is unopposed for renomination, and none of the six Republicans running appear positioned to mount a strong general‑election challenge.

Virginia’s redistricting referendum, despite passing, was nullified in court after judges ruled that the Democratic legislature and Governor violated state constitutional requirements by rushing the measure to the ballot. Lawmakers plan to return with a new referendum in 2027, to run concurrently with the state House and Senate elections. For 2026, the 2021 map remains in effect.

Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R‑Montrose) 1st District is the second‑weakest pro‑Trump seat in the state, though the President still carried the district with a five-point margin. Rep. Wittman’s likely opponent is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney and 2025 Attorney General candidate Shannon Taylor, who is favored to emerge from her five‑candidate Democratic field. She is expected to run a strong general election campaign, though Rep. Wittman remains favored for 2026. He will, however, be a top target when the 2027 redistricting map is drawn.

In the Virginia Beach-anchored 2nd District, where President Trump narrowly prevailed over Kamala Harris in 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R‑Virginia Beach) is seeking a third term. Her opponent will be former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022. The general election promises to be intense and highly competitive meaning it should be considered a toss‑up all the way to Election Day.

For a time, it appeared former Rep. Bob Good would return to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R‑Manakin‑Sabot) in the mid‑state 5th District. Good ultimately declined, leaving Rep. McGuire unopposed in the Republican primary.

The general election, however, features a formidable Democratic candidate: former Rep. Tom Perriello. He would likely have been favored under the new map, so his decision to continue running after the referendum was struck down suggests he may be positioning himself for 2028, when district lines are expected to be more favorable for a Democratic candidate.

In the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D‑Alexandria) faces four Democratic challengers in a moderately competitive primary. Rep. Beyer remains a strong favorite, but the candidates may also be positioning themselves for a potential 2028 open seat. Rep. Beyer will be 78 years old at the time of the next election and will be widely viewed as a retirement possibility.

Washington

Washington is one of four states – Alaska, California, and Louisiana are the others – that use a jungle primary format. As a result, voters will not select partisan nominees tonight. Instead, the top two finishers, regardless of party or vote percentage, will advance to the general election.

The most competitive contests are in southwest District 3, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D‑Skamania County) is attempting to win a third term in a Republican‑leaning district; the open 4th District; and the Spokane‑anchored 5th District.

With resigned Trump appointee Joe Kent not returning for a third attempt in the 3rd CD, Republicans have an opportunity to field a stronger challenger. That candidate is state Senate Minority Leader and retired Navy Captain John Braun (R‑Chehalis), who has led in jungle primary polling. Should Sen. Braun qualify for November, as appears likely, Rep. Perez will face her toughest campaign yet in a seat that is rapidly becoming a must‑win Republican target.

In central Washington District 4, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R‑Sunnyside) is retiring, leaving six Republicans, one Democrat, and four Independents competing for the seat.

Historically, this district has set the precedent of sending two Republicans to the general election, but with only one Democrat on the ballot, retired Air Force officer John Duresky, the chances of his advancing have substantially improved. Republicans are still very likely to hold the seat, potentially with state Sen. Matt Boehnke (R‑Kennewick), though a first‑place finish for Duresky tonight is not out of the question.

In District 5, freshman Rep. Mike Baumgartner (R‑Spokane) is favored for re‑election. The remaining question is whom he will face in November: one of the six Democrats running or one of four Independents. Democrat Carmela Conroy and Independent Nate Powell both have strong prospects of securing the second ballot position needed to challenge the Congressman.

Michigan Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 3, 2026

Primary

This week, six states are holding their 2026 primary elections, but none is more active than tomorrow’s Michigan nomination contests.

Today, we highlight the Wolverine State’s key races. Tomorrow, we will preview the Aug. 4 primaries in Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. On Thursday, Aug. 6, Tennessee voters choose their nominees, and on Saturday, Aug. 9, Hawaii follows.

The marquee Michigan race is the Democratic US Senate primary. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El‑Sayed faces Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham).

Although Democratic leaders have rallied around Stevens since state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak) exited the race in early July, El‑Sayed holds a commanding advantage in public polling. Across the last eight publicly released surveys, from eight different pollsters, El‑Sayed’s average lead is 14.9 percentage points.

Tomorrow’s winner faces former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who is virtually unencumbered in the Republican primary.

The gubernatorial primaries are less dramatic. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the clear favorite and is expected to cruise to the nomination.

For Republicans, Congressman John James (R‑Farmington Hills), who previously ran two close statewide races, leads businessman and frequent candidate Perry Johnson. A Benson-James general election matchup is the anticipated outcome. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had previously launched an Independent bid that would have created an intriguing three‑way race, but he suspended his campaign in late May.

Michigan also features a full slate of competitive congressional primaries. In the 4th District, where Congressman Bill Huizenga (R‑Holland) faces a competitive general election, Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann (D‑Kalamazoo) is likely to prevail with his party’s nomination, setting up what promises to be a closely watched November contest.

The 7th CD is likely to host the fiercest campaign in the delegation. Freshman Congressman Tom Barrett (R‑Charlotte/ Lansing) will defend his seat against one of three Democratic contenders: political organizer William Lawrence, retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, and former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.

The 8th District will also be competitive. Freshman Bay City Democrat Kristin MacDonald Rivet seeks a second term and is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans have a three‑way contest, with former US Postal Service Inspector and Navy veteran Amir Hassan, who has raised roughly $800,000 and holds President Trump’s endorsement, favored to win. Rep. Rivet remains the favorite for re‑election, though GOP efforts may intensify after the primary.

The open 10th District promises a highly contested general election. Congressman James is vacating the seat to run for Governor, having twice won close races in this politically swing district. The leading Republican is Mike Bouchard Jr., son of longtime Oakland County Sheriff and former statewide nominee Michael Bouchard, Sr.

With strong name recognition, Bouchard Jr. is expected to win the GOP nomination. He will face one of three Democratic candidates: former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-Macomb County local office nominee Christina Hines who has led in several polls.

In District 11, which Congresswoman Stevens is vacating to run for the Senate, the decisive contest is the Democratic primary; therefore, tomorrow’s winner will claim the seat in November. State Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss (D-Southfield) is favored over three opponents.

District 13, anchored in Detroit, again features Congressman Shri Thanedar (D‑Detroit) facing a Democratic primary battle. Rep. Thanedar is seeking a third term, and his principal challenger is state Representative Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit). Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters failed to qualify for the ballot due to insufficient petition signatures but is running as a write‑in candidate. The Thanedar-McKinney contest will be close, with the winner headed to Washington after November.

As these races illustrate, Michigan’s election card is full, and tomorrow night’s coverage will be extensive with the Democratic Senate primary as the headline attraction.

NC-11: Controversy Abounds

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 31, 2026

US House

North Carolina’s 11th District congressional nominee Jamie Ager (D)

Proving that he is the “Mountain Democrat” that he claims to be, North Carolina’s 11th District congressional nominee Jamie Ager recently signed the Promise to America’s organizational statement, which emphasizes six core tenets: “We are capitalist, not socialist; We want safety, not lawlessness; We are responsible, not reckless; We believe government should solve problems, not create them; We are mainstream, not extreme; We are proud, not ashamed of America.”

His decision to do so, however, has caused political turbulence. While the Promise to America message resonates in much of western North Carolina, it has drawn criticism in Asheville – the district’s largest city and the center of regional liberal politics.

North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District borders South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee and sits along the Great Smoky Mountain range, which is part of the Appalachian Mountains that stretch from Canada to Alabama.

The 11th CD encompasses all or parts of 13 counties, with Buncombe County – home to Asheville – comprising more than one‑third of the district’s population. Buncombe is twice as large as the next biggest county, Henderson. Its importance is clear: while Edwards won re‑election districtwide with 57 percent in 2024, he received only 36 percent in Buncombe County.

Ager must therefore take seriously any base problems he faces in what must be his strongest area because the rest of the district is ruby red.

Under the state’s new congressional map, NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 districts designed to elect a Republican. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the seat at 51.9R – 45.8D, and President Trump carried it in 2024 with a 54.2 – 44.7 percent margin over Kamala Harris.

Historically, these numbers suggest that a Republican congressional incumbent should win re-election in the mid to high 50s, which two‑term Rep. Chuck Edwards (R‑Flat Rock/ Asheville) has done. This year, however, the district will see a more intense campaign.

Ager’s challenges, however, may pale in comparison to Rep. Edwards’ recent difficulties. The Congressman is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged improper relationships with young female staffers, including providing two with personalized handguns, taking one on a trip to Las Vegas, and giving personal gifts to several other female staff members. In reference to the pink and blue handgun gifts, Rep. Edwards, a licensed firearms dealer before entering Congress, claims they were for personal protection.

The Congressman and his wife own six McDonald’s restaurants, all of which are being sold. Mrs. Edwards has said the couple wants to devote more time to public service, though the sale may also reflect the widening fundraising gap between Edwards and Ager. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, the Democrat holds $2.2 million in his campaign account compared to the incumbent’s $468,000.

Controversy surrounding the district’s congressional incumbent is nothing new for this western North Carolina constituency. Edwards, then a state Senator, came to Congress in the 2022 election by defeating scandal-plagued freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn. He defeated Rep. Cawthorn by 1,384 votes in garnering 33.4 percent of the vote over Cawthorn and six other Republican candidates. North Carolina is a runoff state, but the threshold is only 30 percent, so heading to a secondary election in the Tar Heel State is a rare occurrence.

NC‑11 will be a major Democratic target this year. While Ager’s Promise to America stance may create friction within the party’s far‑left base, it is likely to be received positively throughout most of the district. Conversely, Edwards’ ethics troubles will not be. Expect to hear much more about this race when political prime time begins immediately after Labor Day.

South Carolina Senate Special
Election Candidate Filing Closes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 30, 2026

Senate

Candidate filing closed yesterday for the South Carolina special Republican Senate primary, and no fewer than eight individuals filed to challenge appointed Sen. Darline Graham despite her carrying President Trump’s endorsement.

The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham earlier this month required state Republican leaders to schedule a quick special election to replace him on the ballot. The primary will be held Tuesday, Aug. 11. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff.

The headline challengers are two sitting US House members: Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who finished a distant third in June’s gubernatorial primary, and Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach).

Other notable entrants include former Myrtle Beach Mayor and ex‑City Councilman Mark McBride – an unwelcome development for Rep. Fry, since McBride is likely to siphon votes from the northeastern South Carolina region – and wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, who drew 29 percent in his June primary challenge to Lindsey Graham. Former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford, who considered entering the 1st District regular primary but ultimately did not, also filed for the Senate special.

Three apparent also-ran candidates also filed: former Waterboro City Councilman Duke Buckner, businesswoman Glenda Gail Parker, and biochemical engineer Sam Shepherd.

This crowded field makes it unlikely that any candidate, including Sen. Graham, will reach the 50 percent threshold. The most probable runoff scenario involves two of the three leading contenders – Sen. Graham, Rep. Norman, and Rep. Fry. Should Graham fail to win outright, she would enter the runoff at a disadvantage, since a majority of voters would have already chosen someone else.

Historically, family members of deceased officeholders often perform well in replacement elections, though Democratic family members typically perform better than Republicans.

In terms of campaign resources, Rep. Norman is independently wealthy and capable of quickly self‑funding at a seven‑figure level. Rep. Fry has roughly $1 million in his House campaign account that can be transferred to a Senate committee. Sen. Graham must raise funds into a new federal committee, but a supportive Super PAC has indicated it is prepared to spend $1.5 million on her behalf. Lynch, who spent more than $5 million on his unsuccessful June challenge, is also well‑financed and capable of again investing heavily, this time in a short‑term race.

Turnout will be key, as is typical in special elections. In June, 464,709 voters participated in the regular Senate primary, and it is likely that considerably fewer will cast ballots in the Aug. 11 special primary.

Lindsey Graham received 264,091 votes in securing his 57 percent primary win, giving the late Senator’s sister a substantial Graham‑aligned vote base from which to begin assembling a victory coalition. In the regular Senate primary, Mark Lynch drew 134,360 votes, and in the Republican gubernatorial primary, Rep. Ralph Norman received 80,790 votes.

With at least these three candidates capable of attracting significant support, the Aug. 11 primary is poised to be highly competitive, increasing the likelihood that the nomination will not be decided until the Aug. 25 runoff.

The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in November against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, given South Carolina’s strong Republican voting history. It remains to be seen which of the major contenders will ultimately secure the nomination.

Georgia Special Election to Runoff;
SD Gov. Rhoden Nominated

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 29, 2026

GA-13

Marcye Scott (D), daughter of the late Congressman David Scott.

In April, 12‑term Rep. David Scott (D‑Atlanta), the brother‑in‑law of legendary Atlanta Braves star Hank Aaron, passed away at age 80, leaving Georgia’s Atlanta‑area 13th District vacant. Before his service in Congress, Scott served five terms in the state Senate and four in the Georgia House of Representatives.

In last night’s special election to fill the remainder of the current term, the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott (D), placed first among three Democratic and two Republican candidates. She fell short of the 50 percent threshold to win outright, receiving 46 percent of the vote, which sends her and state Sen. Everton Blair (D‑Stone Mountain), who finished second with 37 percent, to an Aug. 25 special general election.

State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won the regular Democratic primary and is the party’s nominee for the November general election. Given the district’s strong Democratic lean, Clark will win the seat in November. She chose not to run in the special election, knowing that she will be sworn into office when the 120th Congress convenes in January. Clark is a prohibitive favorite over Republican nominee Jonathan Chavez.

Georgia’s 13th District wraps around the eastern side of Atlanta and touches six counties: Rockdale in full, and parts of Clayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Henry, and Newton. The district is solidly Democratic, with a 68.9D – 29.5R partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App). Its population is 72.2 percent minority, including a 51.4 percent Black voting age population. It is one of four Atlanta‑metro districts with a majority‑Black population.

The Georgia legislature will enter a special session after the 2026 election to redraw its congressional map in response to the US Supreme Court’s Callais v. Louisiana ruling, which eliminates federal protection for majority‑minority districts. Under the ruling, aligned with the Constitution rather than the affected sections of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, race may no longer be a factor in drawing district boundaries.

As a result, the Atlanta‑area map will be significantly reconfigured. While many metro districts will still contain large minority populations due to regional demographics, the current configuration of four majority‑minority districts is unlikely to remain intact. The 13th District, which sits on the metro’s outer ring and spans multiple counties, is particularly likely to undergo major changes, and could conceivably receive a new district number for the 2028 cycle.

With the Scott vacancy now headed to a runoff, three other House seats remain vacant. The California district of resigned Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) will be filled on Aug. 18. No special elections have yet been scheduled to replace resigned Reps. Tony Gonzales (R‑TX) and Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick (D‑FL).

South Dakota – Governor

In the Mount Rushmore State’s Republican gubernatorial runoff last night, Gov. Larry Rhoden secured the 2026 GOP nomination with a decisive 71–29 percent victory over businessman Toby Doeden.

In the June 2 primary, Doeden was a surprise first‑place finisher, while Gov. Rhoden narrowly edged at‑large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R‑Mitchell) for second place and the right to advance to the runoff. Under South Dakota law, a runoff between the top two finishers is required if no candidate receives at least 35 percent of the vote. In the primary, Doeden claimed 30.6 percent, followed by Rhoden at 25.2 percent, Johnson at 23.4 percent, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen at 20.8 percent.

Gov. Rhoden ascended to the governorship at the start of 2025 when then‑Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to accept a federal appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Before winning the Lieutenant Governor’s position on Noem’s 2018 ticket, Rhoden served 16 years in the state legislature – 10 in the House and six in the Senate. In 2014, he ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate, losing the Republican primary to current Senator and former Governor Mike Rounds.

Now, as the official Republican nominee, Gov. Rhoden is well positioned for November and will easily defeat former state Sen. Dan Ahlers (D) and win the Governorship in his own right.

Montana Senate:
The Democrats Stiff Their Nominee

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Senate

Montana Senate Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced yesterday that it will not fund Montana Senate Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, who won the primary on June 2 with just under 44 percent of the vote against four opponents.

DSCC executive director Devan Barber said in an interview with the Semafor organization that “the DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”

Part of the reason for the party apparatus’ funding decision is because Bankhead publicly attacked the party structure for not previously supporting her campaign. Obviously, Bankhead’s strategy of publicly complaining about lacking support did not gain her favor with the party leaders.

The Democrats’ Montana dilemma extends beyond having an obstinate nominee, however. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is running as an Independent and performs significantly better against Republican nominee Kurt Alme, a former US Attorney, than does Bankhead. With both Bankhead and Bodnar on the ballot, Alme holds a clear advantage.

A new poll from Tavern Research illustrates the situation. The Tavern survey (July 23-27; 517 likely Montana general election voters; online) finds Alme leading both Bodnar and Bankhead on an isolated ballot test, 49-27-24 percent.

In a hypothetical one‑on‑one race between Alme and Bodnar, the Republican leads only 51-49 percent (the absence of undecideds suggests respondents were pushed to choose). When Bankhead is tested head‑to‑head with Alme, the Republican’s advantage expands to 59-41 percent.

The problem for Bodnar and the Democrats is that Bankhead, as the party nominee, will remain on the ballot regardless of whether she receives institutional party support. Complicating matters further, Libertarian pharmacist Kyle Austin is also a qualified candidate.

In a full ballot test including Alme, Bodnar, Bankhead, and Austin, the Republican leads 49-25-24-2 percent, respectively. With all four candidates appearing on the ballot in November, the placement structure clearly favors Alme.

This situation mirrors developments in Nebraska, where Democratic leaders prefer to support an Independent rather than their own nominee. In Nebraska, the national Democratic leaders have a compliant Senate nominee and a Democratic state party that is willing to step aside for Independent Dan Osborn.

Cornhusker State Democratic Senate nominee Cindy Burbank last week withdrew from the race before the final ballot placement deadline so her name will not appear on the November ballot.

With both Osborn and Bodnar, these “Independents” would caucus with the Democrats as do Independent US Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), thus explaining the party’s interest in backing the Nebraska and Montana Independents.

In Montana, however, Democratic leadership failed to clear the field for Bodnar. As a result, even though Alme is not yet polling as strongly as Republican strategists would prefer, the inability to consolidate support behind an Independent/Democratic fusion candidate effectively guarantees Alme the six‑year Senate term – even if he falls short of majority support.

Alme’s standing is likely to strengthen as the general‑election campaign intensifies and voters become more familiar with him.

It is worth recalling that as the filing deadline approached in March, Sen. Steve Daines (R), who had already filed for re‑election, reversed course and withdrew his candidacy. Standing beside him at the Secretary of State’s office was Alme, who filed for the seat within minutes of the deadline.

The maneuver frustrated many GOP and conservative activists who felt deprived of an open Republican primary. Therefore, the Republican nominee must continue to mend intra-party political fences.

Close Race Watch: NY-17

Dave’s Redistricting App shows NY‑17’s partisan lean at 52.9D – 46.1R. (Click on image to go to Dave’s Redistricting App interactive map.)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 27, 2026

US House

One of the key national congressional races to determine the House majority lies in Upstate New York, stretching between White Plains and Poughkeepsie, and by every measure a swing political district.

New York’s 17th Congressional District features a competitive contest between two‑term incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R‑Pearl River) and former National Security Council staff member Cait Conley, who easily won a crowded Democratic primary on June 23. Conley captured 51.4 percent of the vote against four opponents, though turnout was surprisingly low: just 27,228 Democrats participated, compared to 37,004 in the 2022 midterm primary.

Conley, who also earned the Working Families Party ballot line, is a West Point Academy graduate (which is located in the 17th CD) who served 16 years on active duty, deploying six times to combat zones in Iraq and Afghanistan. A decorated Army officer, she earned three Bronze Stars before joining the National Security Council staff.

Rep. Lawler, a political moderate who also carries the New York Conservative Party endorsement and ballot line, first won the seat four years ago after a term in the state Assembly. He scored the biggest upset of the 2022 cycle when he defeated then‑Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who at the time chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Rep. Lawler won re‑election in 2024 with a 52.1 – 45.8 percent margin over former Westchester County Congressman Mondaire Jones (D). In the same election, President Trump narrowly lost NY‑17 by a 49.9 – 49.3 percent margin. The district is more Republican‑leaning than New York: statewide, President Trump lost to Kamala Harris 55-43 percent. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, NY‑17’s partisan lean is 52.9D – 46.1R, compared to the statewide lean of 58.9D – 40.0R.

An earlier FM3 Research survey conducted for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) just after Conley’s Democratic primary victory, found the opposite: the new Democratic nominee ahead 51-45 percent. Taken together, the ballot test data points to a toss‑up race.

The co/efficient poll also revealed interesting underlying data in that within the 17th District polling sample both Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) posted lower favorability scores than President Trump. According to the co/efficient ratings, Gov. Hochul holds a 36:49 favorable to unfavorable ratio, and Mayor Mamdani registers 37:53. In contrast, President Trump recorded a 44:51 ratio.

The co/efficient poll also highlighted concern about the Democratic Socialists of America’s recent primary victories in New York City. Sixty‑three percent of respondents said they are “concerned about the rise of socialism and the DSA candidates.”

Conley did not run as a DSA candidate, but Rep. Lawler is expected to attempt to link her to these nominees during the general‑election campaign. Among unaffiliated voters – likely the decisive voting bloc – 64 percent expressed concern about socialism, and Lawler held a 15‑point lead within this group.

NY‑17 includes Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties. Rockland and Westchester together account for 72 percent of the district’s population. The most populous communities lie in the southern portion of the district, including Mount Pleasant, New City, Ossining, and Peekskill.

According to the US Census Bureau, the 17th District’s voting‑age population is 65.8 percent White, 18.4 percent Hispanic, 9.3 percent Black, and six percent Asian. The average household income is $123,436, and the average housing unit cost is $635,500.

In the Eastern time zone, the NY‑17 race will be closely watched on election night as an early indicator of national House trends.

Close Races to Watch:
Michigan & Minnesota

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 24, 2026

Questions are surfacing about whether the Democratic Socialist victories seen in the recent New York and Colorado primaries signal a broader trend or are simply localized outcomes. The upcoming US Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will offer clearer evidence.

Michigan

In Michigan, the Aug. 4 Democratic primary features a highly competitive contest between Democratic Socialist Abdul El‑Sayed, the former director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham). Earlier, the race was a three‑way contest including state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak). On July 5, Sen. McMorrow suspended her statewide campaign indicating that she had no viable victory path. Her withdrawal came too late to remove her name from the ballot; therefore, McMorrow will attract some percentage of the vote, which could affect the final outcome.

Two recent surveys suggest El‑Sayed is opening a substantial lead despite most Democratic establishment figures publicly backing Rep. Stevens. Tulchin Research (July 13-15; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 56-40 percent. A Data for Progress poll conducted in a similar period (July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) finds a comparable result: El‑Sayed leading 54-41 percent.

Former seven‑term Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by three‑tenths of a percentage point, will easily secure the Republican nomination. Conventional political analysis suggests Rogers might prefer facing El‑Sayed, believing he could frame him as too far left, thus providing an opportunity to gain support among Independents. While general election polling is close in both matchups, El‑Sayed currently performs slightly better than Stevens.

Rogers trailed Slotkin in most 2024 polling until the final two weeks, and his standing at this stage of the 2026 cycle is stronger than it was two years ago as is his campaign war chest. A Republican victory in Michigan would likely secure continued GOP control of the Senate, making the Aug. 4th Democratic primary outcome even more consequential.

Minnesota

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate. She has support not only from ideological allies such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (D‑NY), but also from the state’s Democratic establishment, including Gov. Tim Walz, retiring Sen. Tina Smith, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D‑Minneapolis), and former Sen. Al Franken.

Her opponent, Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), has a significant fundraising advantage, raising twice as much as Flanagan and holding a $5 million to $1.5 million cash‑on‑hand edge. Rep. Craig’s support comes heavily from labor unions coupled with a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local officials.

The latest poll for this campaign, from SurveyUSA for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (July 15-20; 513 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters), finds the two contenders locked in a dead heat tie at 40-40 percent. In late June, Public Policy Polling tested the race (June 25-26; 604 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and posted Flanagan to a 43-36 percent advantage.

Just before PPP went into the field, SurveyUSA, as part of their polling series for KSTP, sampled a different 513 likely Democratic primary voters over the June 11-16 period. Comparing the two Survey USA polls yielded a Flanagan net gain of five percentage points from June to July to bring the Lieutenant Governor into the tied result that the latter S-USA study reflected.

The Minnesota primary has a week longer primary period, which could help Rep. Craig because, she has a financial advantage. As is the case in any primary, turnout will determine the outcome, and with the type of support that Flanagan has, she might have a grassroots edge.

These campaigns will provide insight not only into the strength of the Democratic Socialist movement but also into general‑election positioning, since in both states the Republican nominees are effectively set.

The presumed Republican nominee is former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya. She trails both Flanagan and Craig, but conventional wisdom holds that her best chance to make the general election competitive would be against Lt. Gov. Flanagan. In either pairing, Democrats currently hold the advantage, though Tafoya is already within the polling margin of error.

In the coming weeks, the Michigan and Minnesota primaries will yield valuable data about the trajectory of the Democratic Socialist movement and help refine expectations for the general election landscape.

Polling: Appointed Sen. Darlene
Graham No Cinch to Last Full Term

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 23, 2026.

US Senate

There has been some question as to whether the announced South Carolina special election Senate Republican candidates would reconsider their plans now that appointed Sen. Darline Graham has decided to run for the full six-year term. Two new polls may have just provided early answers.

With the July 28 candidate filing deadline approaching, two new surveys suggest that Reps. Ralph Norman (R Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach), along with businessman Mark Lynch, have little incentive to withdraw. Contrary to early assumptions, Sen. Darline Graham apparently does not begin the race with a clear advantage.

The new polling, conducted by Peak Insights (July 18–20; 900 likely Republican special primary voters; live interview & text) and Innovative Communication Strategies (July 20-21; 788 likely Republican special primary voters; text to web), indicates that another individual – one not currently running – holds the early lead.

Peak Insights finds former Congressman and Fox News host Trey Gowdy holding a 38 percent preference figure, well ahead of Rep. Norman at 13 percent, and Rep. Fry and Sen. Graham (listed on the survey questionnaire as Darline Graham Nardone) tied with nine percent. Lynch follows with seven percent support. ICS did not test Gowdy; without him in the field, their results show Rep. Norman holding a 19-16-12-9 percent edge over Sen. Graham (also listed as Darline Graham Nardone on the survey questionnaire), Rep. Fry, and Lynch.

Gowdy’s strength is notable given that he has made no visible move toward entering the race. Sen. Tim Scott (R), now the state’s senior Senator, has publicly argued – prior to Sen. Graham’s announcement – that Gowdy would be the strongest possible Republican nominee. The Peak Insights data suggests that the Senator’s assessment is correct.

Another central question in what now appears to be a competitive contest is campaign finance. Sen. Graham begins with no funds, as she must form a new federal campaign committee. Only $2,000 from Lindsey Graham’s account could be transferred to her campaign, assuming the committee treasurer has authority to make disbursements following the principal’s death.

Rep. Fry is in the strongest financial position: his June 30 FEC report shows $1.04 million available for transfer to a Senate committee. Rep. Norman reports $90,314 cash on hand but he has substantial personal wealth and could quickly self fund. Lynch, who challenged Sen. Lindsey Graham in this year’s regular primary, retains more than $568,000 cash on hand after loaning his campaign over $5 million.

Among the major contenders, Sen. Graham is therefore at the greatest financial disadvantage, and the compressed timeline makes lightning-fast fundraising difficult. A supportive Super PAC could intervene on her behalf, and given her endorsement from President Trump, such an effort is plausible. If her campaign can assemble an operational structure – likely with significant assistance from Lindsey Graham’s former political staff – she will be able to communicate the Trump endorsement, which has been a decisive asset in almost all Republican primaries.

The key question is whether a newly formed Graham campaign, even with Trump’s backing, can win outright on Aug. 11. If these polls are reasonably accurate – and both point to similar conclusions about Sen. Graham’s early standing – it appears unlikely that any candidate will reach a majority.

Based upon current information, the Aug. 11 primary is likely to force a runoff on Aug. 25 between the top two finishers. In a head-to-head contest between Sen. Graham and either Rep. Norman or Rep. Fry, the available data suggests that the result is uncertain.

Biggs Wins Primary for Governor; Other Arizona Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Five-term Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), as polling correctly predicted, easily won the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary last night defeating fellow Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) with more than 70 percent of the vote. Rep. Biggs will now challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs who faced no opposition in her Democratic primary.

With Arizona becoming politically purple, we can again expect another close Governor’s race result. In 2022, Hobbs, then Arizona’s Secretary of State, won a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.6 percent victory over Republican Kari Lake.

Arizona has no Senate election this year, and at least three of the state’s nine House races will be highly competitive in November.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – defeated state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R Scottsdale) and technology company executive John Trobough. When all the votes are counted, Feeley will garner approximately 50 percent of the party vote.

While a large portion of the Democratic establishment was lining up behind former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated in her in the 2024 Democratic primary and held incumbent David Schweikert to a four-point victory margin in the general election, it will again be Dr. Shah advancing into the general election. The final vote count projection suggests that Dr. Shah will attract in the neighborhood of 42 percent support opposite three other Democratic candidates.

Expect another tight 1st District race to unfold in the general election cycle.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

The other major Republican primary comes in Rep. Biggs’s open congressional district race. Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb shook off a sex scandal to defeat Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan with 58 percent of the vote at this writing.

The 5th District is safely Republican, so Lamb should easily top the new Democratic nominee, nurse Elizabeth Lee, who recorded a landslide victory over her two opponents.

General Election Competition

Aside from the competitive Governor’s race and other statewide campaigns, at least three GOP-held congressional districts are going to draw a great deal of national attention.

The 1st District, as covered above, promises to remain in toss-up mode all the way to election day. Republicans have a small edge in voting history, but the 1st District could easily slip to the Democrats in November. Expect an expensive and hard-hitting campaign to dominate the Phoenix metro political airwaves. Republicans performing better than Democrats in the primary turnout battle will also boost the new GOP nominee, Feeley.

In the northeastern 2nd District, expect both second-term incumbent Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) and former Navajo Nation president and 2022 congressional nominee Jonathan Nez to again wage strong and expensive campaigns. Rep. Crane won the 2024 version of this contest with a 55-45 percent victory, but the rematch will likely be closer. Rep. Crane, however, still remains the favorite.

From the Phoenix-anchored 4th District, four-term Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) was an easy 68 percent Democratic primary winner last night and will have little trouble winning a fifth term in November.

The southeastern 6th CD will feature a bare majority winner as two-term Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again faces a difficult re-election campaign in a politically marginal congressional district. His 2026 opponent will be retired Marine Corps Sgt. JoAnna Mendoza (D) who will attempt to flip the seat to the Democratic column. Both Rep. Ciscomani and Mendoza were unopposed in yesterday’s primary. Like the 1st District, this campaign will be in toss-up mode until the final vote is tabulated.

In the remaining districts, Reps. Yasamin Ansari (D-Phoenix), Adelita Grijalva (D-Tucson), Abe Hamadeh (R-Phoenix), and Paul Gosar (R-Bullhead City) will all coast to re-election in November.