Pivotal Colorado Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Primary

Polling suggests that today’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary could produce another major upset. Surveys indicate a surprisingly close contest between Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser.

When Sen. Bennet entered the Governor’s race – without having to risk his Senate seat – several competitive candidates withdrew, assuming he would be difficult to defeat in a statewide primary. The one officeholder who remained was term‑limited Attorney General Weiser, and current polling indicates that Sen. Bennet losing tonight is a realistic possibility.

Recent primary and runoff polling around the country has been inconsistent. For example, a Wedgewood Polls survey of the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff (June 22-24; 753 likely Louisiana GOP voters) showed State Treasurer John Fleming leading Rep. Julia Letlow 51-47 percent. On June 27, however, Letlow won 57-43 percent. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting public polling.

The most recent study, from reputable Public Policy Polling (June 24-26; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) projects AG Weiser to be leading Sen. Bennet 45-36% percent. In PPP’s June 1-2 poll, Sen. Bennet was ahead 36-30 percent.

A further challenge for Bennet is that his support appears to have a ceiling. After beginning the year with a 2:1 lead over any prospective Democratic opponent, including Weiser, Sen. Bennet has not exceeded 36 percent in any poll – a clear warning sign for his prospects tonight.

Even if Bennet loses, it would be difficult to frame the result as a Democratic Socialist victory, however. While Weiser is campaigning to the left, he is not relying upon socialist rhetoric. Like all Democratic candidates, he is running against President Trump, but he has also emphasized Colorado‑specific issues and mounted an exhaustive campaign effort. If Bennet assumed Weiser would be easy to defeat, he appears to have misjudged his opponent.

In the Senate race, incumbent and former Gov. John Hickenlooper should win renomination tonight, but even he has not performed particularly well in the one recent poll we have seen of this race. Expect Sen. Hickenlooper to defeat state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), another DSA candidate, but his victory percentage may be smaller than one would expect from a well-known incumbent before voters of his own party.

Several House races are also contested, but Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), Jason Crow (D-Aurora), and Brittany Petersen (D-Lakewood) are all unopposed for renomination.

One of the most striking contests is the DSA challenge to veteran Rep. Diana DeGette (D) in Denver’s 1st District. Attorney Melat Kiros is running slightly ahead in limited polling and dominated the Democratic endorsing convention. Kiros received nearly 70 percent support from convention delegates, while DeGette qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes above the minimum – making this another potential DSA upset.

In the western slope 3rd District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R‑Grand Junction) faces a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ron Hanks. Rep. Hurd is expected to win easily but will likely face a competitive general election, probably against venture capitalist Alex Kelloff.

The 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, was created by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission as a domain that the local political winds could influence. CO-8 is one of the most politically marginal districts in the country, and every election is expected to be competitive.

Democrats began with a large primary field, but most candidates have withdrawn, realistically leaving a contest between state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D‑Commerce City) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird. Rutinel has been a strong fundraiser but spent heavily during the primary. Ms. Bird, viewed as a slight underdog, is the more centrist candidate and has faced outside attacks for being too pro‑Israel. The stakes in this primary are high.

The winner will face freshman Republican Gabe Evans (R‑Ft. Lupton/Thornton), who is considered one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the nation due to the district’s competitiveness. Regardless of tonight’s Democratic outcome, the CO‑8 general election will immediately become a national congressional contest.

Letlow Wins Louisiana Senate Runoff

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 29, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R)

The late polling numbers suggesting that Saturday’s Louisiana Republican Senate runoff was headed for a photo finish proved inaccurate.

Despite ballot test data indicating that State Treasurer John Fleming had a chance to upset Rep. Julia Letlow (R Start), the Congresswoman instead posted a strong 57-43 percent victory, closely mirroring polling released shortly after the May 16 primary.

Rep. Letlow is now the official Republican nominee, which almost guarantees her entrance into the Senate next year.

A major theme in the later phase of the campaign was the debate over a carbon capture procedure, an issue on which Dr. Fleming sharply criticized both Rep. Letlow and Gov. Jeff Landry (R).

The carbon topic drew significant media attention and dominated much of the advertising, particularly from the Fleming campaign. At the time, many political analysts believed the carbon capture issue was moving votes, helping explain Fleming’s apparent rise in late polling.

Immediately after the primary, Rep. Letlow opened with an average 57-36 percent lead based on two public polls – Harper Polling (May 18-19; 457 likely GOP runoff voters) and Kaplan Strategies (May 24-26; 850 likely GOP runoff voters) – each showing nearly identical results.

As the runoff approached, however, the race appeared to tighten. BDPC (June 15–16; likely GOP runoff voters) found Letlow ahead just 40–38 percent. JMC Analytics (June 21–22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters), polling for the Fleming campaign, even showed its candidate leading 45-40 percent. The final pre runoff survey, from Quantus Insights (June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), placed Letlow back in front but with only a 48-45 percent edge.

With these late polls suggesting a toss up, uncertainty surrounded the final days of the campaign. Ultimately, however, the close polling proved inaccurate, and Rep. Letlow secured a decisive win.

Turnout for the runoff was abnormally high. According to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s unofficial report, 316,538 votes were cast in the Republican contest, 79 percent of the May 16 primary total. Runoffs typically draw between 50 percent and 67 percent of primary participation, making Saturday’s turnout unusually strong and likely benefiting Letlow.

Dr. Fleming performed well in his former 4th Congressional District, carrying most parishes in the region. He previously represented western Louisiana for four terms in the US House before risking the seat for an unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid. The rest of the state, aside from Orleans Parish, voted solidly for Letlow. She dominated her home 5th District and performed strongly in southern Louisiana’s Cajun Country.

Although Dr. Fleming had a long-standing relationship with President Trump – including service in two Administration roles and as Deputy White House Chief of Staff – he did not receive the all-important presidential endorsement.

President Trump instead announced his support for Rep. Letlow early, even before she formally entered the race, believing she was the strongest candidate to topple Sen. Bill Cassidy in the primary and hold the seat for Republicans in the general election. It is likely that this pre-election analysis will prove correct in November.

Democrats also held a Senate runoff. Farmer and 2023 state Representative candidate Jamie Davis defeated businessman and retired Navy veteran Gary Crockett by a wide 80–20 percent margin. Democratic turnout was under 197,000, far below Republican participation. Davis now enters the general election as a significant underdog against Rep. Letlow.

While national Democrats are seeking to expand the Senate map, Louisiana is an unlikely target for a major investment of campaign resources. With a statewide partisan lean of 58.3R – 41.7%D (Dave’s Redistricting App) and a Democratic nominee without a national fundraising base, the 2026 Louisiana Senate race is expected to be relatively quiet and culminate in a Republican victory.

Louisiana Senate Runoff Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 26 2026

US Senate

Louisiana GOP voters will close the loop on the party’s Senate nomination process tomorrow, as the runoff election will effectively end the marathon campaign for the state’s junior Senate seat. The May primary drew significant national attention when the challengers successfully denied two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy even a runoff ballot line.

Saturday’s runoff appears closer than many expected at the outset. Shortly after the primary, Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start) posted large polling leads over State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. As the race concludes, however, tomorrow’s outcome now appears uncertain.

The Louisiana campaign became a focal point when President Trump renewed his attacks on Sen. Cassidy over Cassidy’s impeachment vote in early 2021. Upon returning to office, the President pledged to settle the score, and his endorsed candidate, Rep. Letlow, initially performed as well as he had hoped.

Trump publicly backed the Congresswoman early – even before she had formally decided to run for the Senate. Yet Dr. Fleming, also a physician and wealthy businessman who owns or previously owned 38 Subway franchises and developed 168 UPS Stores, is likewise close to Trump.

After serving four terms in the US House and unsuccessfully running for the Senate in 2016, Dr. Fleming was appointed to several posts by President Trump: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Health Technology Reform, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and finally White House Deputy Chief of Staff under then-Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

When Dr. Fleming ran for State Treasurer in 2023, he earned endorsements from then-former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA). A Fleming victory tomorrow would therefore bring another Trump ally to the Senate, even though the President supported Rep. Letlow. Trump believed she would be the stronger candidate against Sen. Cassidy in a Republican runoff, which drove his decision to back her over Fleming.

Early in the runoff cycle, Rep. Letlow appeared to justify that confidence. In late May, she opened polling leads of 52-35 percent and 52-37 percent in surveys from Harper Polling and Kaplan Strategies.

The tide began to shift in mid‑June. Dr. Fleming’s decision to invest more than $11 million of his own money into his campaign communications program appears wise. Rep. Letlow’s average 16‑point advantage in early polling shrank to two points (40-38 percent; BDPC; June 21-22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) and three points (48-45 percent; Quantas Insights; June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters).

Another poll, from JMC Analytics (conducted for the Fleming campaign; June 21–22; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), even showed Dr. Fleming pulling ahead with a 45–40 percent lead.

Earlier in the cycle, Dr. Fleming appeared to be maneuvering around Federal Election Commission reporting deadlines by loaning his campaign $2 million before each filing period, then repaying himself afterward, only to re‑loan the funds before the next deadline. Ultimately, however, he invested heavily and strategically. His final $11.5 million personal loan allowed him to build a major spending advantage over Rep. Letlow, whose campaign reported raising $4.3 million through June 7.

While the Congresswoman may still hold on to win the runoff, it is clear that Dr. Fleming has the momentum heading into Election Day and effectively timed his campaign peak period.

Saturday’s winner will become Louisiana’s next Senator, as Democrats are not positioned to mount a competitive general election challenge. The Republican runoff should therefore be treated as the decisive election for this seat.

Turnout for the May 16 Republican primary was 401,174 individuals. Runoff participation is typically much lower, so the campaign that best identifies and turns out its supporters will prevail tomorrow night. If the late polling is accurate, this race should now be considered a toss‑up.

Will Colorado Rep. DeGette be Next to Fall to a Democratic Socialist?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2026

US House

Six House members have already been denied renomination this cycle, and next week’s Colorado primary could add another to the list.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) is facing a serious challenge from attorney and Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros in a race that pegs a far left liberal against a traditional liberal incumbent. Congresswoman DeGette has been in office since winning her first term in 1996, ironically a year before her opponent was born.

The June 23 New York primary underscored the strength of the Democratic Socialist candidates. Three DSA‑aligned contenders won congressional primaries in New York City, victories that all but assure them seats in November. Two of the winners defeated incumbents: Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. In Brooklyn, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D).

In both the Goldman and Espaillat races, the challengers overcame major financial disadvantages. Brad Lander, the former NYC Comptroller, defeated Rep. Goldman despite being outspent 7:1; Goldman spent more than $7 million attempting to hold his seat but lost 66-34 percent. Darializa Avila Chevalier edged Rep. Espaillat 49-46 percent, despite a 2:1 spending deficit.

Earlier in the year, three additional incumbents, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX), Al Green (D‑TX), and Thomas Massie (R‑KY), were defeated by wide margins. A sixth incumbent loss stemmed from redistricting rather than voter rejection.

In Texas’ newly drawn 33rd District, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred defeated freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch). Although the district lies entirely within Dallas County, most of its territory was unfamiliar to Johnson and markedly different from her original 32nd District, which was transformed into a Republican‑leaning seat stretching into East Texas.

These results reflect a broader frustration within both party bases and recent signs suggest that Colorado Democrats may be experiencing similar tensions.

Rep. DeGette’s vulnerability became apparent when she barely qualified for the ballot at the 1st District nominating convention. Colorado candidates must either secure 30 percent of convention delegate support or submit sufficient petition signatures to earn a ballot position. Rep. DeGette cleared the 30 percent threshold by just eight votes in an official intra-party caucus where delegates overwhelmingly backed Kiros.

A reported Data for Progress Colorado poll showed Kiros leading next week’s 1st District race with 41 percent, followed by DeGette at 36 percent and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James at six percent. Like Chevalier in New York, Kiros is a strong anti‑Israel activist, reflecting issues increasingly becoming prominent in Democratic primaries.

Money favors Rep. DeGette, and has been bolstered by significant outside spending. However, as seen in other incumbent defeats, financial advantages have not always been enough to counteract shifting voter sentiment.

Additional signs of political turbulence for Colorado incumbents appear in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

Recent polling indicates a tightening race in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) faces a strong challenge from Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has mounted an unexpectedly competitive campaign effort.

A late May Colorado Community Research poll (May 22-26; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading Sen. Bennet 41-34 percent. A follow‑up Public Policy Polling survey (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Bennet rebounding but to only a tenuous 36-30 percent.

The Colorado Community Research poll also tested the US Senate primary and surprisingly found Sen. John Hickenlooper leading state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D‑Denver), another Democratic Socialist, by a narrow 41–34 percent margin.

Colorado is the only state holding a June 30 primary, and the key contests are shaping up to deliver another round of closely watched and potentially consequential results.

Reps. Goldman, Espaillat Lose in NY; Election Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Two more US House incumbents lost their renomination bids last night as the New York Democratic Socialists had a big night.

Maryland

In the most watched race in the state, and certainly most expensive, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) defeated former Congressman David Trone who was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary. At this writing, Rep. Delaney held a 44-38 percent lead despite Trone spending almost $30 million on his campaign. She was also leading in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick.

In the open 5th District, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie) easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.

Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) easily defeating Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70 percent of the vote.

New York

Big losses for two incumbents again proves that dominant campaign spending does not necessarily guarantee victory. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NYC) was dealt a crushing defeat in his bid for a third term, losing to former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 66-34 percent margin.

In the Harlem-anchored 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost his Democratic primary. Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Rep. Espaillat in a tight 49-46 percent result. Both Lander and Chevalier were heavily outspent (Goldman’s money ratio over Lander was 7:1; Espaillat held a 2:1 resource advantage). Both Lander and Chevalier are closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists.

Six incumbents have now lost their renomination campaigns. In addition to Reps. Goldman and Espaillat, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), all failed to win their respective primaries earlier in the year.

In another Democratic Socialist win, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won the open 7th District Democratic primary. She will next win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn).

In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.

This campaign ended in an inverse order regarding campaign expenditures. Here, Conway and Schlossberg spent the most, with the winner, Lasher, spending the least among the top contenders. Assemblyman Lasher will now win the general election without much difficulty and in January will succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City).

In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22 percent Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.

In a race where money did make a difference, Trump-endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Constantino rolled to a 59-41 percent victory.

The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.

Utah

Looking at the state’s new Democratic 1st District anchored in Salt Lake City, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 60 percent of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the November election.

In new districts, Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse), Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner, while Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was unopposed for renomination in the 4th District, which is entirely new territory for him when compared to the previous 3rd District to which he was elected in 2024.

South Carolina

As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31 percent victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.

In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46 percent result. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.

Major Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Three more state primaries and one runoff are on today’s political calendar, featuring several major contests. Primary voters in Maryland, New York, and Utah will cast their final ballots for nomination, while South Carolina Republicans choose their gubernatorial and 1st District congressional nominees in runoff elections.

Maryland

Republicans will select a candidate to challenge Gov. Wes Moore (D), though the GOP winner will enter November as a severe underdog.

Several congressional races are drawing attention. All seven Maryland US House incumbents seeking re‑election face primary challengers, though five of those contests appear noncompetitive.

The marquee race is in the state’s western 6th District, where former Congressman David Trone (D), who vacated the seat in 2024 for an unsuccessful Senate bid, now seeks to reclaim it from his successor, Rep. April McClain Delaney (D‑Potomac). Trone, the billionaire founder of Total Wine & More, has spent roughly $30 million on the race, while Delaney has countered with nearly $9 million. Polling has been inconsistent, though Delaney appears to have a slight edge.

In Baltimore, City Councilman Mark Conway is challenging veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D‑Baltimore), one of several races nationwide where younger Democrats are raising age and vitality concerns about long‑serving incumbents. Rep. Mfume, who is 77 years old, is again favored to prevail.

Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D‑Mechanicsville) retirement after 45 years of congressional service has triggered a crowded Democratic primary in the safely blue 5th District, with 23 candidates competing.

Establishment figures including Rep. Hoyer, Gov. Moore, and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks have endorsed state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D‑Bowie), though he has been outspent by healthcare company executive Quincy Bareebe and former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn. Other notable contenders include state Sen. Arthur Ellis (D-Charles County) and former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, though neither appears to have gained enough momentum to finish first.

New York

With the gubernatorial nominations effectively settled – Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) will easily secure their primaries tonight – the focus shifts to several competitive congressional races.

Two incumbents are on the political hot seat tonight and upsets are possible.

In Brooklyn’s 7th District, four Democrats are vying to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D), serving her 17th term. Three elected officials: Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, and NYC Councilwoman Julie Won, are the leading contenders. New York’s plurality election system means tonight’s vote will decide the nominees regardless of percentage attained.

In the 10th District, former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander, running as the Democratic Socialist candidate with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani along with their associated organizations, is challenging Rep. Dan Goldman (D). Polling shows that Rep. Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss company fortune, is significantly trailing despite outspending Lander 4:1. Lander scoring an upset victory is very possible.

The 12th District, vacated by retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D‑NYC), features eight Democrats competing for the politically safe CD. Four major contenders: attorney George Conway, Assemblymen Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, and John “Jack” Bouvier Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, are locked in a competitive race. Early polling showed Bores and Lasher trading the lead, but no recent data has been released.

In the 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D‑Harlem) faces his toughest challenge since winning his initial congressional primary in 2016. Community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier has built a strong ground operation and performed well in polling. Two June surveys showed Espaillat at 35 percent support, and one (Data for Progress, June 3-9; 319 likely NY-13 Democratic primary voters) even had Chevalier leading 39–35 percent; therefore, we see another incumbent upset possibility.

In Upstate District 17, a key November battleground, five Democrats are competing to challenge two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R‑Pearl River). Former National Security Council official Cait Conley has led in recent polling and is favored to clinch victory tonight.

Utah

Redistricting has significantly reshaped Utah’s congressional map, creating a new Salt Lake City-anchored Democratic seat. Four Democrats are competing, with former Congressman Ben McAdams and state Sen. Nate Blouin (D‑Salt Lake City) emerging as the top contenders. Early polling suggested Rep. McAdams held a significant advantage. McAdams is favored to win tonight, which will pave his return to Congress.

Despite radical changes to district boundaries, GOP Reps. Blake Moore (R‑Salt Lake City), Celeste Maloy (R‑Cedar City), and Mike Kennedy (R‑Alpine) are expected to win renomination. Rep. Kennedy is unopposed in the new 4th District despite the seat being completely different from the 3rd District he won in 2024. Rep. Burgess Owens (R‑Salt Lake City) opted to retire, thus avoiding a paired Republican primary for Reps. Maloy or Kennedy.

South Carolina

In the Republican gubernatorial runoff today, four‑term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), is likely to score a big victory. Several polls show him holding substantial leads, and President Trump has just issued a co‑endorsement after previously backing Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. Wilson is expected to win easily this evening and claim the Governorship in November.

In the open 1st District, a close race is expected between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R‑Daniel Island), who finished first and second in the June 9 primary. The winner will be a strong favorite in November. Incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston) vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully for Governor.

Maine: Ranked Choice Voting
System Changes Outcomes

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 22, 2026

Ranked Choice Voting

Ten days after Maine’s June 9th primary, the Secretary of State’s office finally released the results of the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) tabulations, and the post‑election redistribution altered the final outcome in two major races.

(Click on image to see example larger.)

Under Maine’s RCV system, the process activates when no candidate receives a majority of first‑choice votes. Once it is determined that the leading candidate holds only a plurality, the last‑place finisher is eliminated, and that candidate’s next available rankings are then added to the aggregate totals. This elimination‑and‑redistribution cycle continues until only two candidates remain, at which point the final round determines the official result.

Maine uses RCV only in primaries and federal elections. The state Supreme Court has ruled that the Maine Constitution recognizes plurality winners in state general elections, meaning RCV cannot be applied there. The court also held that it lacks jurisdiction over party‑run primaries and federal contests, so it cannot block RCV in those elections.

In the open Governor’s race, former state Health Director Nirav Shah led the Democratic primary in the initial count but ultimately lost in the RCV rounds. The official Democratic nominee is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D‑North Haven/Portland).

Although Pingree trailed Dr. Shah 27-23 percent in first‑choice votes, she gained steadily through second and third choice rankings. In the fourth and final round – after the field had narrowed to those two – she prevailed 56-44 percent.

Businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I‑ME), was the first candidate eliminated, and his votes were redistributed according to the voters’ alternate rankings.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows was eliminated next, and the addition of her supporters’ ranked choices pushed Pingree ahead of Shah for the first time, by an adjusted margin of 2,990 votes. After former state Senate President Troy Jackson was eliminated, the fourth round matched Pingree against Shah, producing the final outcome.
‘
On the Republican side, RCV did not alter the standings. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles led on election night with a 38-20-20 percent advantage over businessman Ben Midgley and attorney Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

The order remained unchanged through seven RCV rounds, and Charles officially secured the nomination with a 60-40 percent final‑round margin over Midgley.

Pingree and Charles now advance to the general election, where they will also face Independent state Sen. Rick Bennett of Oxford.

Bennett, a former Maine Republican Party chairman and Republican National Committeeman, left the GOP to run as an Independent, believing he would be more competitive in a three-way race without the party designation. His presence on the ballot is expected to draw votes away from Charles, thus making Pingree a heavy favorite in November.

RCV also changed the outcome in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District. On election night, state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D‑Bangor), brother of former Governor and Congressman John Baldacci, held a narrow lead. But in the second round of RCV tabulation only 546 votes separated Baldacci, State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. In the third round, Dunlap overtook Baldacci and won the nomination with just over 52 percent of the adjusted vote.

Dunlap, therefore, advances to face former Gov.Paul LePage in the general election. LePage was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Maine’s 2nd District is the most Republican‑leaning seat in the country that a Democrat currently represents: retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D‑Lewiston).

The 2026 general election is expected to be competitive. Given that LePage carried the 2nd District in all three of his gubernatorial campaigns, he enters this general election campaign as the early favorite.

Bennet’s Gubernatorial Bid In Doubt

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 19, 2026

Governor

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D)

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

When Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) announced he would enter the open race for Governor back in April of 2025, most believed he would sail through the Democratic primary and into the Governor’s mansion with relatively little effort. As the June 30 primary approaches, however, the political landscape looks considerably different.

Once Sen. Bennet declared his gubernatorial candidacy, all but one of the major prospective Democratic contenders abandoned their ambitions – choosing instead to seek re‑election, pursue other statewide offices, or exit electoral politics altogether. The lone holdout was Attorney General Phil Weiser, who is term‑limited and therefore unable to seek a third term. He remained in the race as Sen. Bennet’s only significant primary opponent.

It is now clear that Weiser has become a serious threat. At least one recent survey has even shown him leading the primary. Two of the latest publicly released polls illustrate the tightening contest: Public Policy Polling (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text and live interview) found Bennet ahead 36-30 percent, while Colorado Community Research (May 22-28; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading 41-34 percent.

Neither poll is encouraging for Bennet. Even in the PPP survey, where he holds a narrow lead, the fact that a four‑term US Senator (appointed in 2009 to replace Ken Salazar and subsequently elected in 2010, 2016, and 2022) is polling only in the 30s among his own party’s primary electorate as the early voting period begins is hardly a sign of political strength.

Several of Bennet’s strategic decisions, combined with an unexpectedly vigorous grassroots effort from Weiser, have contributed to the competitiveness of the race.

The Senator’s first questionable move was bypassing the state party’s nomination assembly. Colorado candidates can access the primary ballot in one of two ways: by securing at least 30 percent of the delegate vote at the state endorsing convention, or collecting the required number of petition signatures – 1,500 from registered party members in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. Candidates may pursue both paths simultaneously as a safeguard. Sen. Bennet chose to skip the assembly entirely and rely solely on petition signatures.

Weiser, by contrast, attended the assembly and surpassed the 30 percent threshold, earning his ballot line. Sen. Bennet’s decision raised eyebrows, suggesting either a lack of confidence in his ability to win over party delegates or a desire to avoid the rigors of the convention process altogether.

A second misstep came when Bennet stated that, if elected Governor, he intended to remain in the Senate long enough to choose his own successor rather than resign immediately and allow outgoing Gov. Jared Polis (D) to make the appointment. Critics quickly seized on the remark, accusing Bennet of attempting to consolidate too much power.

Meanwhile, Weiser’s campaign has been more aggressive and effective than many anticipated. In his campaign appearances around the state, he has criticized Bennet – and DC Democrats more broadly – for not applying sufficient pressure on President Trump. He contrasts this with his own record, highlighting the 65 lawsuits he has filed or enjoined against the Trump Administration.

There is little doubt that the winner of the June 30 Democratic primary will be strongly positioned to become Colorado’s next Governor, given the state’s continued leftward shift. Sen. Bennet may ultimately secure the gubernatorial nomination, but if he does, the victory will likely be viewed as far less impressive than many expected when he first announced his return to state politics in early 2025.

Moreover, federal incumbents seeking different offices in the 2026 cycle have not fared well in either party. Base party primary voters have shown frustration with Washington, rejecting several sitting members of Congress in their bids for Senate seats or gubernatorial positions. Sen. Bennet’s status as a long‑time federal officeholder may be yet another factor weighing down his current campaign.

A Polling Hodgepodge in MD-6

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 18, 2026

House

Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac)

Already we have seen four US House incumbents defeated for renomination, and the June 23 primaries suggest more may fall.

The four incumbents defeated so far include Republican Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX) and Thomas Massie (R‑KY). Two Democrats have also lost, though their defeats are largely attributable to redistricting: Texas Reps. Al Green (D‑Houston) and Julie Johnson (D‑Dallas) were both unseated in newly configured districts.

Next Tuesday, New York Reps. Dan Goldman (D-New York City), Adriano Espaillat (D-Harlem) and Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) face serious intra-party challengers, as does Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac).

Today, we look at the 6th District of Maryland, where billionaire former Congressman David Trone (D) is attempting a political comeback in the congressional district he held for three terms before losing the 2024 Senate primary. To return, he would have to defeat the woman who replaced him, freshman Rep. Delaney.

Polling offers no clear picture. Several surveys suggest Trone is well‑positioned, while just as many indicate he is headed for a sizable defeat. In an unusual sequence of publicly released polls, the ballot test leader has flipped in eight consecutive surveys. All were conducted by professional live interview firms that the two campaigns commissioned.

Unsurprisingly, each campaign’s polls show its own candidate ahead. The Delaney campaign’s internal surveys consistently find the Congresswoman leading by strong margins. The Trone campaign’s polls, meanwhile, show the former Congressman ahead in all four of their releases, but only by narrow spreads.

The polling firms involved, Hart Research for Delaney and Impact Research plus the Global Strategy Group for Trone, are well‑established, highly experienced, and have conducted surveys for presidential campaigns. Yet their results in this race, while internally consistent, diverge sharply from one another.

The latest pair of polls again shows opposite outcomes. Hart Research (for the Delaney campaign; June 2-4; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) places Rep. Delaney ahead 52-37 percent, a margin well beyond the survey’s error range and consistent with their March, April, and May findings.

In contrast, the Global Strategy Group (for the Trone campaign; June 8-11; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) shows Trone holding a slight 43-40 percent edge, also in line with previous Impact Research results.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, at least one of these veteran polling firms will have missed the race multiple times by a large margin.

Trone, the founder of the Total Wine & More beverage chain, again is spending heavily, this time an estimated $25 million of his own money. Rep. Delaney has countered with more than $8 million in campaign expenditures according to the June 3 pre-primary Federal Election Commission financial disclosure filing.

Maryland’s 6th District contains four counties in the state’s western panhandle tucked between Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and about a quarter of Montgomery County. It is the latter entity that tilts the district toward the Democrats.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the MD-6 partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.0R, making it the most competitive district in the state. In federal races, however, the district’s electorate clearly favors Democrats. MD-6 voters backed the Democratic nominee over President Trump in both recent presidential elections: Kamala Harris won 51.6 – 45.8 percent in 2024, and President Biden carried the seat 53.9 – 44.1 percent in 2020.

Former Rep. Trone averaged 57.5 percent of the vote in his three victorious elections, while Rep. Delaney scored a 53 percent win in her lone congressional contest.

In any event, it appears evident that one of these two candidates is in for a surprise on Tuesday night.

Moore, Collins Win Senate Runoffs; Hern has Solid Win in Oklahoma

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 17

Runoffs were conducted in both Alabama and Georgia yesterday; Oklahoma hosted its primary election. Most of these states’ notable races now have nominees.

Alabama

The Senate Republican runoff very likely decided who will succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), now the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nominee.

Last night’s winner is Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) who defeated retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson by a 56-44 percent margin. The Moore victory virtually punches his ticket to the Senate as he will now be regarded as the prohibitive favorite over attorney Everett Wess who won the Democratic runoff last night.

Hudson secured his runoff spot on May 19 by narrowly edging Attorney General Steve Marshall, who had led early but faded once the campaign intensified. Former President Trump endorsed Moore during the primary.

Georgia

Republicans now have a nominee to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) defeated former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, 55-45 percent. Rep. Collins is the son of the late former Rep. Mac Collins; Dooley is the son of legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley.

Rep. Collins now advances to face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), the most prolific fundraiser of all ’26 US Senate candidates. This will become a national campaign with Sen. Ossoff beginning the general election as the favorite.

For his part, though recording the victory last night, Rep. Collins lost all the Atlanta metro counties but won everywhere else in the state. If he is to unseat Sen. Ossoff, Collins must improve his performance in the region’s largest population area.

In the Governor’s race, a Trump-endorsed candidate failed to win a party nomination, the second during this election cycle. Businessman Rick Jackson, spending an estimated $100 million of his billion-dollar personal fortune, defeated Burt Jones, the state’s Lieutenant Governor, who was endorsed by both President Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp (R).

Jackson now advances to the general election to oppose Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the party nod outright in the May 19 primary. This will be a highly competitive general election campaign.

Also in Georgia, another ticket was punched to Washington last night. In the 11th Congressional District Republican runoff election, surgeon and former 14th District congressional candidate Jon Cowan recorded a 65-35 percent victory over former congressional staff member Rob Adkerson.

Dr. Cowan is now a heavy favorite in the general election in a strongly Republican 11th District. Adkerson previously was chief of staff to the district’s current incumbent, retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville).

Oklahoma

The headline from Oklahoma’s primary night was Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) capturing 70 percent of the vote in the state’s open US Senate Republican nomination contest.

Democrats will choose their nominee in an Aug. 25 runoff between N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse, and Jim Priest, a retired attorney and minister. Rep. Hern becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the November general election.

The Oklahoma Senate seat is open because then-incumbent Markwayne Mullin (R) resigned to accept President Trump’s appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Mullin’s replacement in the Senate, businessman Alan Armstrong (R), as an interim appointment is ineligible to run for a full term under the state’s succession law.

In Rep. Hern’s open congressional district, state Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) finished first with 32 percent in a five-candidate field. He advances to a runoff election against Trump-endorsed pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer. The Republican runoff winner will be the heavy favorite to win the general election.

In the other congressional races, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), and Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) were all easily renominated last night. Each exceeded the 70 percent vote threshold. Fifth District Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) was unopposed for renomination.

All four House incumbents, and the winner of the 1st District Republican runoff, will all enter the general election as overwhelming favorites.