Senate Cash

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 13, 2026

Campaign Finance

The year-end 2025 fundraising reports are now available, and The Down Ballot political blog statisticians have released their quarterly report summarizing the candidates’ fundraising performances. Below is an overview of the most competitive and noteworthy campaigns.

As was the case for the entire last year, the leading national fundraiser continues to be Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). In the 4th quarter of 2025, he added an additional $9.65 million to his coffers. Sen. Ossoff posts a cash-on-hand figure of $25.5 million. His totals dwarf all Republican contenders. The GOP candidate with the largest campaign war chest is Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) who reports $4.2 million in his campaign account.

The Alabama Republican primary to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), who is running for Governor, is close in both polling and fundraising. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), whom President Trump recently endorsed, has $842,000 cash-on-hand, but his three opponents, Attorney General Steve Marshall, former Capitol Hill aide Morgan Murphy, and ex-Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, all post between $428,000 (Hudson) and $562,000 (Marshall) in their campaign treasuries.

Turning to Alaska, former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) announced her candidacy in January and therefore won’t have to file a disclosure report until the end of March. Her general election opponent, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), has a healthy $5.8 million campaign bank account.

In Iowa, where Democrats hope to score an upset in the open-seat campaign, it appears their candidates are off to a slow start. None even reach the $800,000 cash-on-hand plateau, while consensus Republican candidate, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids), has more than $5.1 million in her campaign committee.

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) also continued his strong fundraising pace. After spending $6.18 million so far, he still has $15.2 million in the bank. This gives him a 15:1 available cash advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly (Matteson/Chicago) as the three contenders move toward a March 17 primary. Krishnamoorthi also enjoys double-digit polling leads in all published surveys.

Stratton is expecting a seven-figure support boost from the Lieutenant Governor’s Association Super PAC, to which Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) has generously contributed in support of her bid. The eventual Democratic nominee will clinch the seat in the general election.

The open Kentucky Senate Republican race is becoming interesting. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) is the best fundraiser of the group, raising $6.5 million before the end of 2024, but businessman Nate Morris has matched him because he added a $4.5 million loan to his campaign. Elon Musk has also contributed $10 million to a Super PAC that supports Morris.

Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, despite leading in several Senate polls, trails badly in fundraising bringing in only $1.6 million for his campaign through Dec. 31.

The intra-party battle to deny Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy renomination in the Republican primary suggests the incumbent won’t go down without a fight. The Senator posts over $10 million in his campaign account, far more than his principal opponents, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) who has $2.4 million in the bank, and State Treasurer John Fleming who self-funded $8.1 million but shows only $2.1 million cash-on-hand.

A surprise fundraising report occurred in the Massachusetts Democratic primary. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) actually raised significantly more in the fourth quarter than did Sen. Ed Markey, $2.0 million to $772,000. The Congressman also has more on-hand resources than the Senator, $3.1 million to $2.8 million. With the Democratic primary not scheduled until Sept. 1, this race has much time to develop.

It appears that Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills must overcome a difficult obstacle even before facing Sen. Susan Collins (R) in the general election. Gov. Mills posts $1.3 million cash-on-hand, while oysterman Graham Platner (D) is showing $3.7 million in his campaign account. Both are well behind Sen. Collins in resources. She reports just over $8 million in her campaign account.

The Michigan Senate race will be one of the premier national contests. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is the clear favorite to become the Republican nominee, shows $3.5 million in his campaign account.

The three Democratic contenders, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, all have seven-figure campaign accounts. Rep. Stevens has just over $3 million, while Sen. McMorrow and El-Sayed both have just under $2 million in their respective campaign committees. All will empty their war chests just to win the party nomination, but that election won’t occur until Aug. 4.

While Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) enjoys polling leads and key Democratic endorsements, she trails Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) in fundraising. In fact, the Congresswoman has a major advantage in campaign resources. She posts almost $3.8 million cash-on-hand, which is more than three times greater than Lt. Gov. Flanagan’s available amount.

North Carolina former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) also owns a huge resource advantage over his likely general election opponent. The former Governor and ex-Attorney General shows more than $12.3 million in available campaign assets versus $3.7 million for former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. Both are competing for retiring Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R) open seat.

Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) and Independent Dan Osborn both disclose just under $600,000 cash-on-hand in their respective accounts. Polling will likely show this race as relatively close until the final stage when Sen. Ricketts will likely pull away a score a sizable victory.

New Hampshire Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), the consensus Democratic candidate, also has a big funding lead. He reports $3.2 million in his campaign account. Republican former Sens. John E. Sununu and Scott Brown post $1.1 million and $908,000, respectively.

The Ohio Senate race will be expensive. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his 2024 re-election campaign despite raising over $100 million, again has the fundraising lead. His cash figure is $9.9 million. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) reports a respectable $6.0 million in his campaign account.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has a credible Republican primary opponent. The Senator is more than prepared, however, with $13.4 million to spend. Businessman Mark Lynch (R) has $4.6 million remaining from his initial personal loan of just over $5 million.

Not surprisingly, everyone in Texas has money. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) had $7.1 million in assets at the end of 2025. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), leading in most polling, has just over $6 million.

For the Republicans, who are almost certain to head into a runoff election after the March 3 primary, Sen. John Cornyn (R) has the most cash, $5.8 million. Attorney General Ken Paxton possesses $3.7 million, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), who is close in polling, trails badly in cash-on-hand with just over $779,000.

With dollars flowing into both Democratic and Republican candidate committees, the money chase will again likely produce a record aggregate haul for the 2026 midterm election participants.

Texas Senate: A Plethora of Polling

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 12, 2026

Senate

Texas state flag

A series of political surveys conducted in late January and early February are now in the public domain, and we again see data suggesting that four-term Sen. John Cornyn is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election once votes are cast and counted in the March 3 Texas Republican primary.

Four new polls have been released, and while each produces different ballot test numbers the conclusion is similar: that is, we will see two of the three major contenders, Sen. Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), advancing into a secondary nomination election on May 26.

The University of Houston conducted its poll during the Jan. 20-31 period (550 likely Texas Republican primary voters; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online); Ragnar Research Partners polled for the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority Super PAC during Jan. 29 – Feb. 1 (sample size not released); J.L. Partners queried their sample during Jan. 31 – Feb. 1 (600 likely Texas Republican primary voters); and Pulse Decision Science went into the field during the Feb. 1-3 period (801 likely Texas Republican primary voters; live interview).

The results below detail the closeness of this race:

University of Houston (Jan. 20-31)

Candidate Percent
Paxton 38
Cornyn 31
Hunt 17

 
Ragnar Research for Texans for a Conservative Majority (Jan. 29-Feb. 1)

Candidate Percent
Cornyn 31
Paxton 29
Hunt 24

 
J.L. Partners (Jan. 31-Feb. 1)

Candidate Percent
Paxton 27
Cornyn 26
Hunt 26

 
Pulse Decision Science (Feb. 1-3)

Candidate Percent
Paxton 34
Cornyn 26
Hunt 18

The four polls have several factors in common. First, they were all conducted within the same 15-day time frame. Second, all show Sen. Cornyn performing poorly for a four-term incumbent within his own party. Third, that a runoff is a foregone conclusion. Fourth, that all three major candidates have a chance of qualifying for the secondary election.

The addition of Rep. Hunt to the primary campaign is largely the reason that the race will advance to a runoff stage. Hunt has gone from being relegated to a pure spoiler role to a status where at least two current pollsters suggest he has an outside path on March 3 to eliminate one of his two opponents from further consideration.

This being the case, expect both Cornyn and Paxton along with their outside supporters to turn their negative attacks to Hunt, since driving him deeper into third place will guarantee that both statewide officials advance.

This has begun to happen already. The targeted electorate is seeing a great deal of negative attacks being lobbed in Rep. Hunt’s direction. The Texans for Conservative Majority polling memo suggests that $3.4 million in ads have already aired, or time is reserved for negative Hunt commercials.

The campaign balance sheet favors Sen. Cornyn, however, as the year-end Federal Election Commission filings reveal. The veteran incumbent reported $5.9 million in his campaign account at the end of 2025, while AG Paxton posted $3.7 million. Rep. Hunt showed a lesser $1.8 million cash-on-hand.

Only one of the four pollsters recently releasing Texas Senate political data tested the Democratic primary. The University of Houston found Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leading state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), 47-39 percent.

It is Talarico, however, who has the funding advantage. He reported $7.1 million in his account, a larger sum than any candidate from either party. Rep. Crockett posted receipts of $6.5 million raised with $5.6 million in the bank. Because there are only two major candidates on the Democratic side, it is probable that this election will be decided on March 3.

Real estate broker Ahmad Hassan is also a Democratic Senate primary candidate. Even though his status is minor, any votes he receives could be enough to force the other two into a runoff should they finish close. The tightness of such an outcome could mean that Hassan attracting a vote total even as little as two to three percent could result in the top Democratic candidates being forced into a secondary election because the leader barely missed topping the 50 percent mark.

Texas early voting begins next week on Feb. 17 in preparation for the March 3 primary. Tracking the early vote will give us a clue into political enthusiasm between the voters within the two parties. In less than a month we can expect a close finish in both parties from what promises to be one of the most exciting primary elections of the entire 2026 election cycle.

Malinowski Concedes in NJ-11;
Murkowski Says No in Alaska

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 11, 2026

NJ-11

Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia / NJPBS

With former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) conceding defeat in the close NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) in Congress, Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia, a former staff member to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has won the party primary and will advance into the special general election on April 16.

Turnout for the special was low, with 63,804 Democrats participating as we analyze near-final unofficial tabulations. Mejia defeated Malinowski, 29.1 – 27.7 percent, a margin of 889 votes (18,584 to 17,695).

Mejia will also file for the full term before March 23, and it remains to be seen how many of the 12 defeated special election Democrats will decide to challenge her in that race for the regular term.

In the special general, Mejia will face Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, who was unopposed in the special Republican primary. Because Mejia is to the left of the district’s historical voting pattern, the Republican leadership will now make the calculated decision about whether to run a significant campaign in an attempt to score an upset victory.

Chances are that Mejia will likely win the general against a minimal effort, since Republicans have been performing poorly in special elections around the country since the 2024 election and will likely choose to save the money to use in other regular election contests.

The next special election will occur in Georgia on March 10 in the Peach State’s vacant 14th District (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resignation). There, 16 members of the GOP, three Democrats, a Libertarian, and an Independent will compete in a jungle primary for Georgia’s strongest Republican seat.

Should no one receive majority support, almost a certainty from such a crowded field, the top two finishers will advance to an April 7 special general election.

The final special election will occur in California’s 1st District on June 2. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored to win the seat outright in the first election. Should others join the candidate field and force a runoff, the secondary election will be held on Aug. 4.

The CD-1 position is vacant due to the death of the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville).

Alaska

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had not ruled out entering her state’s open Governor’s race, said to reporters earlier in the week that she will not run later this year, and restated her commitment to serve Alaska in the US Senate.

It is likely that Sen. Murkowski would have been favored to win the Governor’s position, as her father did in 2002. Gov. Frank Murkowski was then defeated in the 2006 Republican primary, losing to future Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin and even dropping to a third-place finish.

In 2026, it is probable that Lisa Murkowski would have advanced into the general election via the top four jungle primary system that Alaska employs. Ten Republicans have announced for the position, but the crowded field would have helped her since the conservative vote would have been split among so many candidates.

Without former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the race – she chose instead to run for the US Senate – the Republicans will again be favored to win the general election.

The Senator’s decision looks to lay the groundwork for an interesting 2028 campaign, however. Term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has already said he plans to challenge Sen. Murkowski in the next election.

The Texas Special Election That’s
Getting so Much Attention

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 10, 2026

State Senate

Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet

A great deal of political media attention is being paid to a Texas state Senate special election that occurred on Saturday.

A Democratic candidate again won a special election in a district that President Trump overwhelmingly carried; is that a precursor for the 2026 midterms? The Democrats and many media prognosticators certainly think so, but it is likely too early to make such a blanket prediction because another potential reason yields a different hypothesis.

On Saturday, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a 57-43 percent margin. In 2024, President Trump carried the same district with an even more pronounced 58-41 percent spread. The previous Senate Republican incumbent, Kelly Hancock, was re-elected in 2022 with 60 percent of the vote. The seat was vacant because Hancock was appointed State Comptroller and is seeking election to a full term this year.

The victory pattern is a familiar one when examining the 2025 special election calendar. In the period between January 1, 2025, and January 31, 2026, a total of 68 special elections were held in 24 states for the US House of Representatives (5) and the state legislature (63) according to The Down Ballot political blog statisticians. Each party defended 34 of the races in question.

In those 68 campaigns, Democrats converted eight seats that were previously Republican held. Republicans, on the other hand, converted no Democratic seats. Among the 68 elections, the Republican candidate ran behind President Trump’s 2024 percentage in 53 of these special elections, or 78 percent of the total universe. On average, the Republican candidates ran 6.4 percentage points behind the Trump benchmark when looking at the 68 elections in aggregate.

The victory ratio statistics prompt the question as to why the Democrats are gaining the advantage. Is this a rejection of President Trump and the Republican leadership or are the Democrats running superior campaigns? Likely, the answer will point to a combination of these probable reasons.

While national polls suggest Democrats have an advantage on the generic ballot question: “if the election for the House of Representatives were today would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate …” such is typically the case at the early point in the election cycle and is so even in years, such as 2024, where the GOP had won. Therefore, a perceived advantage for one party or the other at this early point in the election cycle has been proven irrelevant on many occasions.

Therefore, another major contributing factor in these one-sided special election results may be campaign mechanics, which are likely exemplified in the Texas state Senate race.

The total turnout in the campaign in question was just under 95,000 voters, or only 15 percent of the number of registered voters in the 9th state Senate District anchored in the city of Ft. Worth. Texas is one of two states, California being the other, where the state Senate districts are larger than congressional seats.

When comparing the special election total with the 2022 state Senate result, the winning Democratic 2026 special election candidate, Rehmet, received 49 percent of the Democratic total from that losing effort. The Republican special election candidate, Wambsganss, managed only 35 percent from the winning GOP incumbent’s vote. The difference was enough to create a landslide win for the previous losing party in a low turnout election.

Thus, as we have seen around the country in the current special election cycle, the Democratic voter turnout operation is clearly superior to that of their Republican counterparts.

While there is little doubt the political media climate appears to be favoring the Democrats at this time, the Republican turnout mechanics may be a larger contributor as to why so many of these special elections are unfolding in the particular manner.

Therefore, despite the Republicans spending heavily in all of these elections, the obvious conclusion is their message delivery mechanism is failing to convince enough of their base voters to participate in down ballot elections.

Unless the Republicans find more persuasive voter turnout tactics, such as more in person contact, the 2026 election cycle could prove a difficult one for the GOP.

Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei to Retire;
Malinowski Likely to Lose NJ-11

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 9, 2026

NV-2

Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City)

Ending what will be a 30-year career in elective and party politics when this Congress concludes, Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) announced on Friday that he will not seek a ninth term in the House later this year.

Rep. Amodei is the 51st House member not to seek re-election in this cycle. Another five open seats are created through new redistricting maps in California and Texas. The number includes the three districts, in California, Georgia, and New Jersey, that are vacant and currently in special election cycles.

Amodei was first elected to federal office in a 2011 special election after then-Rep. Dean Heller (R) was appointed to the Senate. Rep. Amodei has been re-elected seven times and averaged 58.7 percent of the vote in those elections. Prior to winning the US House seat, he served 14 years in the Nevada legislature. Amodei was then elected as Nevada Republican Party chairman but kept the position for only one year because the congressional seat came open.

Nevada’s 2nd District, which covers the domain’s northern sector and is anchored in the cities of Reno and Carson City, is the state’s only Republican congressional seat. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.8R – 40.5D partisan lean, meaning that Rep. Amodei consistently ran ahead of the party benchmark. In 2024, President Trump carried the seat with a 55.8 – 41.9 percent spread, a margin that was largely responsible for catapulting him to a close statewide win.

Now that CD-2 is open, it remains to be seen if perennial GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian enters this race. Since 2004, Tarkanian, the son of the late famed college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, has run for 10 different offices in Nevada including twice for US Senate and Congressional Districts 2, 3 and 4.

Danny Tarkanian is currently a Douglas County Commissioner, which is in the 2nd CD. He has won a fair number of Republican primaries but typically fails to win the general election. In 2022, he challenged Rep. Amodei in the 2nd District Republican primary and lost 55-33 percent in a campaign where he had little chance of prevailing from the outset.

Currently, Tarkanian is an announced candidate in the open Attorney General’s race. He still has time to pivot into the congressional race, however. The candidate filing period doesn’t close until March 13.

A crowded 2nd District Republican candidate field is expected to form. The eventual Republican nominee should be a clear favorite in the general election. Should Tarkanian enter the race and win the primary, Democrats will invest here because of his previous electoral track record. Therefore, a spending advantage and a weaker Republican nominee is enough political fodder for Democrats to believe an upset is possible.

NJ-11

An estimated 5,000-plus votes still remain to be counted in the New Jersey special congressional election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the US House.

In the first round of political overtime counting, Democratic Socialist and former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member Analila Mejia expanded her advantage over former 7th District Rep. Tom Malinowski to 868 votes according to NBC News.

Even bleaker for Malinowski’s chances, almost an equal number of votes remain from the two counties, Essex and Passaic, where Mejia topped Malinowski as compared to Morris County, an entity the former Congressman carried.

Counting will resume today and presumably be completed today or tomorrow. With Mejia as the nominee staking out the far left from a district’s electorate that has habitually trended toward the political center, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans fully back their nominee for the April 16 special general election. Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway won the Republican primary on Thursday in unopposed fashion.

Candidate filing for the regular election closes on March 23 for the June 2 primary. The timing complicates matters since the candidates must file for the regular term before the special election concludes.

NJ-11 Too Close to Call;
Georgia Rep. Loudermilk to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 6, 2026

NJ-11 Special Primary

Candidate Analilia Mejia, former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member, currently leads the NJ-11 Democratic primary race by a slim 486 votes.

In a rare Thursday primary, voters in northern New Jersey’s 11th District went to the polls yesterday to begin the process of choosing a congressional replacement for Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) who was elected statewide in November.

The race is still too close to call. With approximately 6,000 votes remaining to be counted, a close finish is unfolding between political activist and former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member Analilia Mejia and former Congressman Tom Malinowski. At this writing, Mejia leads Malinowski by 486 votes.

The Democratic race was split among 11 candidates with outside funding coming in for and against several, thus splitting the vote among the top four finishers.

Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, who lost his seat in 2022 to current Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), led in the early part of the night until Mejia overtook him. Malinowski was under heavy attack for his stock transactions during his first two-term stint in the House, which may have cost him the primary election. Immigration and opposing the Trump Administration were the focal points of much of the political advertising.

Former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who benefited from a Super PAC dedicated to supporting Lieutenant Governor candidates, is third, and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, who had former Gov. Phil Murphy’s support, is taking a disappointing fourth since he was projected to finish higher.

With the ballots spread among so many candidates, a 486-vote lead looks larger within a universe of about 6,000 outstanding votes than it would if only two individuals were involved. It appears more of the remaining uncounted ballots come from Essex County where Mejia was strongest. Therefore, barring a stronger final push from Malinowski in Morris County where he is leading, the most likely outcome is Mejia holding on to claim the primary victory.

The eventual official Democratic winner now advances to the special general election where he or she will face Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway who was unopposed in last night’s Republican primary.

The Garden State’s 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield, and Montclair.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6 percent margin over President Trump. Therefore, the eventual Democratic winner is viewed as a heavy favorite for the April 16 special general election.

It remains to be seen if the Republicans will spend serious money in the special general if Mejia, a Sanders-Zohran Mamdani Democratic Socialist candidate, pulls through as now expected.

GA-11

Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA), saying that holding a congressional seat is a service and not a career, announced that he will not seek a 7th term in the House later this year.

Prior to being elected to Congress in 2014, Loudermilk served a total of eight years in the Georgia legislature. Over his six congressional elections, Loudermilk averaged a 69.6 percent voter support level.

A total of 55 House seats are open for the next election, including three currently in a special election cycle. Now, 31 of the open seats come from the Republican column, 19 from the Democratic side, and an additional five new seats have been created on new redistricting maps in California and Texas. Loudermilk is the 20th member who is opting to retire from elective politics. The remainder are running for a different office.

The open 11th District will remain in Republican hands, and a crowded GOP field will soon form. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district partisan lean favors Republicans, 62.1R – 35.5D. In 2024, President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here, 61.2 – 37.9 percent.

Georgia’s 11th CD lies northwest of Atlanta and contains some of the city’s outer suburbs. The district’s voting age population is 30.6 percent minority. It contains Barlow, Gordon, and Pickens counties, along with parts of Cherokee and Cobb counties. The district’s largest population centers are the cities of Marietta and Cartersville.

NJ-11: Special Primary Today

CD-11, Northern New Jersey / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 5, 2026

House

Voters in northern New Jersey go to the polls today to choose party nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), who vacated this congressional district after winning her statewide election in November.

The real battle today is in the Democratic primary as 11 candidates are vying for the party nomination. The primary victor tonight will then likely claim the April 16 special general election.

Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski is viewed as at least a slight favorite to win tonight’s Democratic election, though he has been under attack from his opponents particularly for his stock market success while a member of Congress.

Malinowski was elected to the House in 2018 and won a close re-election over the district’s current Congressman, Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), in 2020. After redistricting, which made the 7th District a touch more Republican, Kean was able to unseat the two-term incumbent in 2022. Rep. Kean was then re-elected in 2024 and will face a tough fight again later this year.

In today’s 11th District special election, Malinowski’s chief opponents are Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, venture capitalist Zach Beecher, Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way.

Malinowski is the top fundraiser within the group, bringing in just over $1.1 million according to the Federal Election Commission pre-primary filing covering the period through January 16th. Gill, however, is not far behind with over $800,000 raised. The remaining group has all attracted between $400-$500,000. Since little difference in ideology exists among the candidates, the Democratic primary will likely be an Election Day turnout battle because early voting has not previously been a major factor in New Jersey voting.

For the Republicans, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway is unopposed for the party nomination and will automatically advance into the mid-April special general election. For his part, Randolph has raised over $260,000, with just over $160,000 in his campaign treasury.

Depending upon tonight’s Democratic result, we will soon see whether the national Republican apparatus will spend significant money to boost Hathaway’s chances in the special general.

The 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield, and Montclair.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6 percent margin over President Trump. Of New Jersey’s nine Democratic congressional districts, the 11th ranked as Harris’ sixth-best performance against Trump. Statewide, her victory margin was 52.0 – 46.1 percent, so the 11th District exceeded her statewide showing by 1.3 percentage points.

The NJ-11 special will be the seventh such contest in House races since the current Congress began. Each party has held the seats it was risking, and the NJ-11 contest in April will very likely follow suit.

The next special election will occur in Georgia where the fight will be on the Republican side. The state’s 14th District, from which former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) resigned in early January, is the Republican’s safest Peach State CD. This election will occur on March 10.

Under Georgia election law, all candidates are placed on a jungle primary ballot. If a candidate scores majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The 14th District’s partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D) is overwhelmingly Republican, so the GOP will hold the seat. With 21 filed candidates, however, going to a runoff election is a virtual certainty.

The contest to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) will be held June 2 under an identical format to the Georgia structure. If a runoff election is necessary in that race, such is scheduled for Aug. 4.