Washington Rep. Newhouse to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

House

Washington Congressman Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) / Facebook photo

Central Washington Congressman Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) announced that he will not seek a seventh term next year. Rep. Newhouse’s retirement decision increases the House open-seat count to 48.

Newhouse was originally elected to Congress in 2014 after serving as Director of the Washington Department of Agriculture. His career in electoral politics began with winning a seat in the state House of Representatives in 2002, where he served three-plus terms before being appointed to the agriculture position.

The Congressman averaged 59.3 percent of the vote in his six federal general elections, but under Washington’s jungle qualifying election system three of those contests were opposite another Republican. Rep. Newhouse’s 4th Congressional District is one of two safe Republican seats in Washington; hence, he faced a Republican opponent in three general elections, two when he was first elected and re-elected, and the last one in 2024.

As one of just 10 Republicans to vote in favor of impeaching President Trump in early 2021 over the Jan. 6 situation at the Capitol, Newhouse did face pressure from Republican contenders in both the 2022 and 2024 elections. Of the group of 10 House Republicans, only Rep. Newhouse and California Congressman David Valadao (R-Hanford) remain in office.

While Newhouse fared well in the general election, he did rather poorly in the associated qualifying elections under the jungle system. In the last two such votes, Newhouse only averaged 24.5 percent of the vote within crowded multi-candidate fields.

In 2024, the Congressman finished a full ten percentage points behind Trump-endorsed Republican Jerrod Sessler in the August qualifying election, but he managed to rebound to score a 52-46 percent win in the November general election. Retirement rumors were prevalent regarding Newhouse during the 2024 election cycle, so seeing him not seeking re-election in 2026 is unsurprising.

The 4th District of Washington lies in the central part of the state and stretches from the Canadian border to Oregon. The district contains six counties and parts of two others. In the 2024 presidential election, the WA-4 electorate voted for President Trump over Kamala Harris with a 59.0 – 38.3 percent margin, making it the strongest Trump district in Washington. The major population centers are the cities of Yakima, Kennewick, and Richland, all located in the CD’s southern sector.

We can expect a large Republican field to form with the possibility of again seeing the voters send two party members into the general election. Sessler, who ran in the last two elections, previously announced that he will return for a third campaign and must be viewed as a strong contender to qualify for the general election. Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) had also previously announced her intention to run.

Republican Tiffany Smiley, who challenged Sen. Patty Murray (D) in the 2022 general election and for a time was viewed as having upset potential, eventually lost in a 57-43 percent result. She then entered the 2024 jungle primary to challenge Rep. Newhouse. Smiley finished third in the jungle primary with 19 percent of the vote, thus failing to qualify for the general election. Therefore, it is possible that she will return to again compete for the congressional post. Without Rep. Newhouse in the field, Smiley would be viewed as another potentially strong candidate.

In terms of the national open-seat count, we now see 48 open seats headed to the next election with three special elections coming in late January (TX-18; replacing the late Rep. Sylvester Turner-D), February (NJ-11; replacing Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill-D), and March (GA-14; replacing soon-to-resign Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene-R). The remaining 45 open seats will all be filled in the regular 2026 election cycle.

From the 48 open seats, a total of 25 Republican members are not seeking re-election, 18 are Democrats, with five new seats created in California and Texas under those states’ new redistricting maps.

Within the subset of 42 serving members who are departing, a total of 15 are opting to retire from elective politics, another 14 are running for Governor of their respective states, 12 are US Senate candidates, and one is competing in an open state Attorney General’s contest, while one member passed away.

Three-Way Race Unfolding in Texas

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

Senate

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) / Facebook photo

The Texas Senate election has already drawn a great deal of attention during the 2026 early campaign segment and likely will attract more based upon recent polling.

When the Lone Star State’s Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) entered the Republican US Senate primary, most observers believed he would act as a spoiler for the battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Hunt’s presence, it was believed, would siphon enough votes away from the two leading candidates to force a secondary runoff election in order to decide the Republican nomination.

According to four different polls, all conducted between the Dec. 1-4 period, Rep. Hunt is now attracting enough support to position himself to secure one of the runoff slots.

The four polls came from four different pollsters: three Republican companies and one Democratic research firm. The Republican pollsters were McLaughlin & Associates, J.L. Partners, and co/efficient, while Public Policy Polling was the lone Democratic firm to test the Republican primary in early December.

Public Policy Polling (Dec. 1-2; 527 likely Texas Republican primary voters; text & live interview) was the initial pollster in the field, and their result was the first of the December data to find Rep. Hunt forging into polling parity with both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton. The ballot test showed Paxton leading Cornyn and Hunt, 32-22-22 percent.

Both co/efficient (Dec. 1-3; 1,022 likely Texas Republican primary voters; online) and J.L. Partners (Dec. 1-3; 600 likely Texas Republican primary voters) were in the field simultaneously but arrived at different results.

The Partners find Paxton leading with 29 percent and Cornyn and Hunt tied at 22 percent; co/efficient’s conclusion found Sen. Cornyn topping the group at 28 percent support, with AG Paxton pulling into a virtual tie at 27 percent. Though co/efficient found Rep. Hunt lagging, he was still within single digits of the two leaders at 19 percent preference.

McLauglin & Associates (Dec. 1-4; 800 likely Texas Republican primary voters) then found Paxton leading Hunt and Cornyn in a closely bunched field at 33-28-27 percent.

Averaging these four polls, we find Paxton having the most aggregate support, averaging 29.7 percent per survey. Sen. Cornyn’s average was 26.3 percent, while Rep. Hunt recorded 23.7 percent. Therefore, these numbers — again derived from professional polling firms all within the same time period — find a wide-open three-way race where each of the three have a legitimate chance of qualifying for the runoff … or being left out.

The latest campaign financial disclosure reports (period ending Sept. 30) find that Sen. Cornyn is in the best financial position with more than $6 million cash-on-hand. Paxton has just over $3 million, while Rep. Hunt posts slightly more than $1.5 million in his campaign account.

With the short campaign season to the March 3 primary, we can expect heavy spending as each candidate works to position themselves to clinch one of the two runoff slots. Count on seeing a Republican mad dash to the finish beginning in late February.

We also saw the first post-candidate filing deadline poll on the Democratic side. Texas Southern University surveyed the likely Democratic voters and found Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leading state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) beyond the polling margin of error.

According to the Texas Southern data (Dec. 9-11; 1,600 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; online), Rep. Crockett’s advantage over Talarico is 51-43 percent. Contrary to the situation on the Republican side, with two major candidates the Democratic nomination fight will very likely end on March 3 because either Crockett or Talarico should be positioned well enough to command majority support on the first vote.

Ohio’s Significance

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. To see interactive map, click on image above or here: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Ohio

The Buckeye State of Ohio is another key 2026 electoral state. With an open Governor’s race, an appointed Senator seeking his first federal election, and as many as three top congressional campaigns, Ohio is clearly a place of significance in determining how the 2026 election will unfold.

A new Emerson College poll (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested both the state’s open Governor’s race and how appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is faring opposite former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The Ohio political polling history typically features closely competing contests that tend to break, usually toward the Republican candidate, in the last two weeks of the campaign. While Ohio elections have been close over the years, few results have been forced into recounts.

The familiar polling pattern is already beginning. It remains to be seen if the elections will end in a similarly historical fashion.

According to Emerson, Democratic former state Health Director Amy Acton leads businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 46-45 percent, meaning the open Governor’s contest is a virtual tie. Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Looking at the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted records a three point, 49-46 percent, edge over former Sen. Brown. It is important to remember that in Brown’s losing 2024 effort, he received more votes than he did for his last re-election victory (2018) yet still lost to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by six percentage points.

As we know, Sen. Husted, at the time of appointment was the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor, replaced resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance who, of course, left the legislative body to become Vice President. Sen. Husted must now run in 2026 to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a full six-year stint in 2028.

Ohio has also enacted a new congressional redistricting map, an exercise required under state law. Because the 2021 plan was adopted with only majority support in both houses of the legislature, and not a three-fifths count, the congressional map could stand for only two elections, meaning 2022 and 2024.

Last month, the bipartisan elected official redistricting commission, which includes Gov. DeWine, unanimously agreed upon a new map. Since every commissioner supported the new plan, legislative approval was not required under the state’s procedure, meaning the new map automatically became law.

The Ohio US House delegation currently stands at 10R-5D. Republican strategists hoped a new map would yield a two-seat gain, but such a final result could be a stretch under the new design. It does appear the Republicans will net at least one new seat, that of veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Competition opposite Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is also possible, particularly for the former.

In 2024, Rep. Kaptur, in a 9th District where the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation was 48.8D – 48.6R, won re-election with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent margin over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). Under the new 2025 enacted plan, the DRA partisan lean is 55.2R – 44.0D, obviously a strong swing toward the eventual Republican nominee.

In Cincinnati’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Landsman sees his district transform from one that carried a DRA partisan lean 49.9D – 47.9R to a Republican majority seat at 51.6R – 47.5D. With a candidate filing deadline of Feb. 4 for the May 5 primary, the Republican leadership still has some time to find a highly credible challenger to the now vulnerable Democratic Congressman.

The original Republican plan objective called for targeting two-term Rep. Sykes, who had won two close elections from her northern Ohio 13th District. Republicans had a strong candidate in 2024 nominee and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who came within two percentage points of upsetting Rep. Sykes.

After seeing the new partisan lean calculation of 51.0D – 48.2R, however, Coughlin decided that even this slight swing toward making the district more Democratic was a bridge too far for him to overcome in a midterm election. The previous DRA partisan lean for District 13 was 50.7D – 47.0R. Therefore, he withdrew from the race. Republican leaders are also looking to recruit a strong candidate for this seat.

As you can see, the Buckeye State has a number of crucial races that will determine the state’s direction in electing a new Governor, and possibly the federal outcome, too, with an important Senate race and several hot congressional campaigns.

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

Ex-Rep. David Trone Launches
Comeback in MD-6

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

House

David Trone (D), former Maryland Congressman / Facebook photo

A new Democratic congressional primary is taking shape, and one not based upon ideology or the incumbent’s age as are most others.

Former Maryland Congressman David Trone (D), the founder of what is now the Total Wine & More company, lost the 2024 Democratic US Senate primary to now-Sen. Angela Alsobrooks despite spending almost $63 million of his own money on his campaign.

Trone, who served as the 6th District Congressman for three terms, has now formally announced that he will enter the 2026 Democratic primary in an attempt to regain his former position. To do so, he will have to deny freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) renomination.

After spending $62 million-plus on his Senate campaign, which included running a barrage of ads throughout the state and the Washington, DC media market for the last two months of the 2024 primary campaign, Trone managed to lose to Alsobrooks, then the Prince Georges County Executive, by a 10-point 53-43 percent margin. In terms of spending, Trone outspent Alsobrooks by a 6:1 margin and most observers thought his huge expenditure created a backlash because the campaign oversaturated the political media market.

Now, in a race against Rep. Delaney, the question is, how much will Trone spend? If he overspends again, will the result be similar?

Rep. Delaney is the wife of former Congressman John Delaney who represented the district for three terms before leaving Congress in 2018 to begin an ill-fated 2020 presidential campaign. Trone succeeded Rep. Delaney in the 2018 election.

With Trone opting for the Senate race in 2024, April McClain Delaney, a media lawyer and former Department of Commerce official in the Biden Administration, won the open Democratic US House primary against 11 opponents, recording 40.4 percent of the vote in the plurality primary. Her closest competitor, state Delegate Joe Vogel, finished with 26.3 percent.

Delaney would then win the general election with a 53-47 percent margin over former state Delegate Neil Parrott (R), who has lost the district in three consecutive elections.

Maryland’s 6th District begins in the state’s western panhandle and stretches east and southeast, capturing the population centers of Hagerstown, Frederick, Germantown, and Gaithersburg. Potomac, where both Rep. Delaney and Trone live, is not part of the 6th District.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations yield a very close political district. According to the DRA statisticians, Democrats hold only a 48.9 to 48.0 edge. Kamala Harris, however, carried the seat with a 51.6 – 45.8 percent margin, but this was substantially below her 63-34 percent statewide performance. Trone averaged 57.5 percent of the vote in his three victorious congressional elections. For his part, Rep. John Delaney averaged 54.8 percent in his three winning campaigns.

During his time in Congress, Rep. Trone was viewed as a centrist because he supported some pro-business legislation largely because of his experience in founding a highly successful company. In the Senate campaign, however, he attempted to capture the party’s left faction but clearly failed.

Against Rep. Delaney, who is a centrist and supports policies that are largely representative of her district, it will be interesting to see what campaign strategy Trone employs. The campaign plan must position Trone to overcome the perception that he wants to return to Congress simply to further his own career and also explain why replacing Rep. Delaney with himself benefits the constituency.

The Maryland primary is scheduled for June 23, and the 6th District Democratic primary campaign promises to be an expensive and hard-fought affair.

Correction: In yesterday’s update, we indicated that TX-18 special election candidate Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Councilmember, had not filed for the regular election because her name was not on the candidate’s list. The Edwards campaign informed us that she has, in fact, filed for the regular term and the Harris County Democratic Party will report her name to the Texas Secretary of State’s office.

The special election is scheduled for Jan. 31 between she and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, and the winner will serve the balance of the current term.

In the regular primary election scheduled for March 3, both she and Menefee will advance into the Democratic primary against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) regardless of how they finish in the special election. The new 2025 redistricting map substantially changed District 18, which has led to this unusual circumstance.

The Third Hot State

Michigan Congressional Map / To see interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

US House

While the most recent attention for flipping the US House has been devoted to the redistricting changes in California and Texas, a third state that did not redistrict will have an equivalent effect upon the 2026 national US House picture.

The Wolverine State of Michigan will be one of the hottest political states in the country for the 2026 election from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Because of the domain’s later April 21 candidate filing deadline and Aug. 4 partisan primary schedule, the early national political focus has been elsewhere, but such does not diminish Michigan’s importance as a ‘26 electoral player.

At the top of the ticket, and for the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and Senate race in the same election cycle. In the House races, we could see major competition in five of the state’s 13 congressional districts. One of those CDs is open, and two others feature freshman members seeking their first re-election.

The Governor’s race will be unique in that it not only projects to be close, but three-term former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent instead of a Democrat means we will see a competitive statewide campaign not just between two candidates, but three.

At this point, it appears that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will be the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominees. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to compete for a third term, but we are likely to see more of her as a probable 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring after two terms has made the Michigan open Senate campaign one of the most competitive in the country and may be the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat.

The latest published poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 18-21; 616 likely Michigan general election voters), projects Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers to small leads each over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D). The latter three are already embroiled in a close primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The lateness of the Michigan primary is another break for Rogers since he is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and can stockpile resources for the general election.

The five competitive races that will have a major effect upon which party controls the next House majority begins in western Michigan with Districts 3 and 4.

In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, which is rated as Lean Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.2D – 46.6R), Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), after briefly considering a Senate run, will seek a third term. Republicans don’t yet have a strong candidate capable of converting the seat, but this district is a top GOP recruitment priority.

In the 4th District, veteran Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), who seriously tested the US Senate waters before turning back under GOP party leadership pressure, has not yet officially announced that he will seek re-election in what again promises to be a competitive general election. In 2024, Huizenga won with a 55-43 percent majority against a weak opponent whom he outspent by a 3:1 ratio.

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean for CD-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D meaning the Republicans have a clear advantage but a strong Democrat would have a credible chance of securing an upset victory. Should Huizenga decide to retire, this race will likely go into toss-up mode. Democrats have four announced candidates including state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who is already polling close to Huizenga.

The area encompassing the cities of Flint, Lansing, and the northern Detroit suburbs will feature potentially the three hottest Michigan US House campaigns.

In the Lansing anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) was the only 2024 candidate to convert an open seat. He will now defend his position within a hot political climate in what promises to be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Six Democrats have announced their candidacies and the leading contender for the party nomination appears to be former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The DRA partisan lean for this toss-up seat is 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Flint-anchored 8th CD saw Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), then a sitting state Senator, defeat three-time GOP congressional candidate Paul Junge by a 51-45 percent margin. The DRA partisan lean of 51.0D – 46.2R, however, suggests the race could have been a bit closer. Republicans have yet to file a top contender, but this contest will again be close and is, like MI-3, at the top of the GOP candidate recruitment list.

Rep. James departing the 10th District to run for Governor leaves what could become one of the closest open seat races in the country. The DRA partisan lean here is 49.5D – 47.9R which has led to two close James’ victories.

Both parties already have five announced candidates. Republicans feature Mike Bouchard Jr., whose father is the Oakland County Sheriff and a former statewide candidate, while Democrats see former US Commerce Department Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel as their current top candidates.

Potential Republican contenders include former Congressman Mike Bishop and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke. Much will happen in MI-10 before the filing deadline as the candidates and potential candidates continue to test the political waters.

Regardless of how the national redistricting wars end, the US House majority will likely come down to just a few seats. It is clear that Michigan will play a pivotal role in determining which party will ultimately claim control of the House chamber at the beginning of 2027.

The Texas Surprises

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

Texas Elections

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” certainly applies to the 2026 Texas federal office slate. Now that candidate filing is closed, the clouded political situation is becoming a bit clearer.

Texas has a unique filing system that makes following which candidate is running where confusing. Instead of filing with a government agency, the candidates file with their political party. Yet, the process is further complicated.

Candidates filing for offices where the jurisdiction covers more than one county turn their qualifying documents in to their state party office. If a district is fully contained within a single county, the candidates file with their county political party. Once the paperwork is received, the political party entities eventually report the qualified candidates’ names and particulars to the Secretary of State. Therefore, the process takes longer to determine who will be on the ballot than it does in most other states.

In the Senate race, we now have a clear picture for the March 3 partisan primaries. For the Republicans, amidst minor candidates the three major participants, Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), are vying for the party nomination. This race is expected to be close and moving toward a runoff, which is necessary if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote. At this point, it appears that Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance to the secondary election.

For the Democrats, we see a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Five minor candidates have filed, and it is unclear just how many will qualify for the ballot. Irrespective of these latter candidates’ presence, it is likely that we will see either Rep. Crockett or state Rep. Talarico claim the party nomination on March 3.

In the House delegation, 11 seats are open with the addition of TX-30, the seat that Rep. Crockett is leaving to run statewide. It appeared that Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would move into that district, but he surprisingly chose not to file. Instead, Veasey decided to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive) where he will face a Republican incumbent and other significant candidates.

The Veasey move allows Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch), who sees her 32nd District transform into a Republican domain and stretch into East Texas, to run in District 33, which is fully contained within Dallas County. Her major obstacle to winning a second term in Congress is former Representative and 2024 US Senate Democratic nominee Colin Allred. Though announcing for the Senate in October, Allred instead changed his mind at the last minute and filed to return to the House, this time in District 33. Also in the race is former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilman Domingo Garcia. Therefore, the top two candidates falling into a runoff becomes a possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will easily win the seat in the general election.

Another new development is the return to the political wars of former Congressman Steve Stockman (R). He has filed in new open District 9. Stockman was twice elected to Congress in non-consecutive elections. He was convicted of violating certain financial laws, but President Trump commuted his 10-year prison sentence. The other major candidate within the crowded field is state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

With 11 filed candidates in the CD-9 race, advancing to a runoff election is probable. It remains to be seen how many of the filed candidates qualify for the ballot. Under the new redistricting plan, the 9th District should be one of the seats that Republicans gain.

Another surprising move came in Houston’s 18th District. This seat is currently in special election mode, with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) vying to replace the late Congressman Sylvester Turner (D). Immediately after the special election, it was thought the winner would then face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a battle for the new 18th District. The regular primary is scheduled for March 3 after a special election winner is declared on Jan. 31.

Only Menefee, however, filed in new District 18. Therefore, should Edwards win the special election, she will only serve the balance of the current term. Win or lose on Jan. 31, Menefee will advance into the regular Democratic primary against Rep. Green.

The truly surprising facet from the Texas congressional filings is the fact that only two state legislators, Cain and state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio; open new District 35), entered one of the 11 open-seat congressional campaigns. Therefore, the Texas delegation will feature a large number of incoming freshmen entering the House with no legislative experience.